ALTOONA, Pa. -- We're now just six weeks away from the start of Penn State's season, and projecting what the team will do this year is complicated because many key factors are currently up in the air.
If a lot of those factors turn out well, then the Nittany Lions would have a chance for a great season.
How great? Well, I'm not going to pick them to beat Ohio State under any scenario ... but everyone else on the schedule is beatable. So, 11-1 could be in the cards, and that would mean a run at a College Football Playoff berth.
I'm not saying all of these things will happen, and I've already given my prediction of a 7-5 mark this year. But all of this is the best-case scenario for Penn State this year.
Here are 10 things that need to happen for any best-case scenario to unfold.
1. Strong defense at Purdue: I'm starting with this one instead of the offensive line because, well, it could determine the first game. The Lions have to replace a bunch of key guys from last year's defense, including standouts Jaquan Brisker and Arnold Ebiketie. To be blunt, I'm not at all sold that the defense will be all that good under new coordinator Manny Diaz, and there's a major challenge right off the bat at Purdue facing a quality quarterback in Aidan O'Connell. If he throws the ball 50 times for 400-plus yards, then Penn State easily could lose the opener, and my best-case scenario will be out the window quickly.
2. Good offensive line: We have to beat this dead horse until the horse finally wakes up ... and blocks somebody. As I've said repeatedly, basically nothing else on this or any other list of positive Penn State predictions stands any chance of happening unless the line improves dramatically over last year.
3. Gotta be able to run the ball: If the line does its job, then Keyvone Lee, Devyn Ford, Caziah Holmes and Nick Singleton need to show they can break tackles and pick up consistent gains to keep the offense balanced. Penn State averaged 108 yards rushing last season. If the number is in the 160-175 range this season, then all of this best-case scenario stuff would be more feasible.
4. Sean Clifford needs to be healthy and consistent: Clifford can win college football games IF he has a running game. He showed that in 2019. But he showed in 2020 and 2021 that you simply cannot rely on him to make enough good throws and protect the ball to win if the ground game struggles. In this best-case scenario, Penn State has some balance on offense and Clifford only needs to go, like, 21-of-35 for 245 yards and two touchdowns in order to win games. He certainly is capable of that if he doesn't face a world of pressure to do everything himself.
5. Mike Yurcich needs to adjust to Big Ten: The Yurcich offense failed miserably last season, which was surprising given how much success he's had in his career. But the bulk of that success came in the Big 12, where we all know they don't care a whole lot about tough, physical defense. The Big Ten is different, and at some point, you've got to be able to establish an identity of toughness on the line and in the running game. We can talk about improved line play or running backs missing tackles, etc., but from this view, the entire scheme was the problem last year. Yurcich cannot play finesse football in the Big Ten. He said they figured out the problems and fixed them. If so, then it's certainly possible for this season to be much different.
6. Be ready for early trip to Auburn: The Lions have a really tough opener at Purdue, and if they win that, they will have proven to themselves that they can win on the road. The trip to Auburn comes two weeks later, and that will be a difficult challenge, even if the Tigers are expected to be down this season. Going to an SEC environment and winning is very difficult. But the good news is that Clifford has played in those kinds of environments for, what, like 17 years now? So he won't be intimidated.
7. Joey Porter Jr. needs to play up to his potential: He's considered by some to be a first-round NFL draft pick next year, and he has all the tools necessary to be a standout for many years in the pros. But Porter was not very good the second half of last year, getting beaten on a number of plays and resorting to numerous holding or interference penalties. The defense needs him to be a leader and an excellent player, and if he can be those things, then the D won't be as big of a question mark.
8. Parker Washington needs to be a star: Jahan Dotson was a star last year, and he took a lot of pressure off Washington. But now Washington has to prove he's a legit No. 1 wide receiver going up against the other team's best cornerback game in and game out. If Washington can do that and catch 75-plus passes, it would be enormous for all the other receivers and the entire offense.
9. James Franklin needs to be better on Saturdays: He's awesome at recruiting. He's excellent throughout game weeks as the leader of the program. But the biggest knock on Franklin is still that he's just not a very good game coach. Too many slow starts. Too many peculiar decisions. Too much inconsistency. I keep going back to the fact that Penn State won only seven games last season despite having eight players who eventually were drafted in the NFL. How in the world can that be possible? It's because Franklin too often struggles getting the most out of all that talent on each and every game day.
10. Don't screw it up: This is my catch-all for the one or two games each season that Penn State blows despite being the better team. Such as last year's 9 OT disaster against Illinois. In an 11-1 best-case scenario, I'm giving the Lions one loss to the Buckeyes but also going to Michigan and winning. Obviously the latter will be very difficult, but it's possible if Penn State checks all the boxes on my list. Still, there are a bunch of other places when the Lions could stub their toes this season, and they'll have to take care of business every week without letting one of those lesser games slip away.