The Penguins have some moves to make in order to get a 23-man, cap-compliant roster before the start of the 2022-23 season.
CapFriendly is a useful website for figuring these kinds of things out, though it has to be said that CapFriendly is simply a projection tool, not some kind of official database. Yes, it shows a current cap figure and it lists a number of players as being in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, but those are just CapFriendly's own projections based on the roster the site created. Nobody is "in" Wilkes-Barre currently, and waivers-eligible players still must clear waivers to be sent down out of training camp.
At this point in the offseason, the Penguins have 27 different players who could reasonably be considered capable of playing on the NHL roster, a group that totals $86,305,175 in salary cap hits (including the $1,916,667 in dead cap space from the Jack Johnson buyout). They are:
FORWARDS
Sidney Crosby - $8,700,000
Evgeni Malkin - $6,100,000
Jake Guentzel - $6,000,000
Jason Zucker - $5,500,000
Bryan Rust - $5,125,000
Rickard Rakell - $5,000,000
Kasperi Kapanen - $3,200,000
Jeff Carter - $3,125,000
Brock McGinn - $2,750,000
Teddy Blueger - $2,200,000
Danton Heinen - $1,000,000
Josh Archibald - $900,000
Ryan Poehling - $750,000
Drew O'Connor - $750,000
Radim Zohorna - $750,000
Drake Caggiula - $750,000
DEFENSE
Jeff Petry - $6,125,000
Kris Letang - $6,100,000
Marcus Pettersson - $4,025,175
Brian Dumoulin - $4,000,000
Jan Rutta - $2,750,000
Ty Smith - $863,333
P.O Joseph - $825,000
Chad Ruhwedel - $800,000
Mark Friedman - $775,000
GOALTENDERS
Tristan Jarry - $3,500,000
Casey DeSmith - $1,800,000
How can the Penguins trim the roster down to no more than 23 players and stay under the $82.5 million salary cap ceiling? Here's what they can do:
1. Re-assign the waivers-exempt players
Of the above 27 players, only two do not require waivers to be sent down to Wilkes-Barre: O'Connor ($750,000) and Smith ($863,333).
O'Connor, 24, remains waivers-exempt for one more season or until he plays 29 more NHL games, whichever comes first. That means that if he plays 29 games with Pittsburgh during the season, he could potentially lose his waivers-exempt status midseason.
Smith, the 22-year-old defenseman acquired in the John Marino trade, is a similar situation. He loses his waivers-exempt status after one more season or 36 NHL games, whichever comes first. Smith is entering his third professional season, and has yet to play a single game in the AHL in his pro career thus far. With the depth the Penguins have at defense and Smith having the flexibility of being exempt from waivers, he may be re-assigned to start the season just to get a compliant roster.
Sending O'Connor and Smith down to Wilkes-Barre out of training camp would reduce the roster to 25 players with a combined salary cap hit of $84,691,842, or $2,191,842 over the ceiling.
2. Waive three depth players
The above reassignments leave the Penguins with 15 forwards and eight defensemen. Waiving and re-assigning two forwards and one defensemen would get them cap-compliant with a 22-man roster, carrying one extra forward and one extra defenseman.
Which players make sense to put on waivers?
The two forwards who would make the most sense are Caggiula ($750,000) and Zohorna ($750,000).
Caggiula, 28, was signed by the Penguins on the opening day of free agency. He's spent his entire six-year career thus far in the NHL, most recently with the Sabres. He was limited to 18 games last season after suffering a herniated disc in his neck in November. He underwent surgery in February and is expected to be healthy by the start of the season.
Zohorna, 26, seems poised to take the next step in his career after playing 17 games in the NHL last season, but may just be a casualty of the roster situation.
Another option at forward is Archibald, though he seems less likely. Archibald, 29, was signed to a one-way deal on the opening day of free agency after missing the majority of last season with the Oilers. As one of two unvaccinated players in the NHL. he was limited to eight games in the regular season due to his inability to cross the border or fly on the team plane within Canada. He later received a medical exemption for the vaccine in May as a result of developing the heart condition myocarditis after contracting COVID-19 last summer. He played in 13 games for Edmonton in the postseason.
A one-way deal has no effect at all on where a player is eligible to play -- the only difference between a one-way and two-way contract is what a player gets paid while in the minors. A player on a one-way deal makes the same salary in the minors, while a player on a two-way deal makes less. For players on one-way deals in the minors, the first $1,125,000 of their cap hit comes off of the NHL team's books and does not count toward the team's cap. Since Archibald's cap hit is only $900,000, his cap hit wouldn't count at all while in the minors. However, a one-way deal at least suggests that management has (or had) intent to keep him in the NHL, because teams would prefer to avoid paying a guy almost a million dollars to play in the AHL, even though it doesn't count toward the cap.
Regardless of which forwards get put on waivers, it's reasonable to assume that they would be able to clear. It's much easier to sneak a player through waivers out of training camp than it is mid-season. In training camp other teams are generally healthy and have their rosters set, and there are a ton of depth players of similar ability being put on waivers at the same time around the league.
Of the eight defensemen remaining on the roster, the one who might make the most sense to put on waivers is Joseph ($825,000).
Joseph, 23, is entering his first season of waiver-eligibility and is on a one-way contract. A one-way contract again suggests some level of intent to play him in the NHL, but given that Friedman and Ruhwedel are also on one-way contracts, it seems as if someone on a one-way is getting put on waivers regardless.
Putting Joseph on waivers could be somewhat risky. He's young, and that could be appealing to another team. But any team that would put in a claim would have to have the intent of keeping him in the NHL for the full season, because if a team claimed him and attempted to re-assign him, the Penguins would just be allowed to claim him right back and put him in Wilkes-Barre. Joseph only has 20 games of NHL experience under his belt over two seasons, and it might be a leap for another team to expect him to immediately become a full-time NHL player. Joseph also only has the ability to play on the left side of a defense pairing -- he never played on the right side in junior, and Wilkes-Barre only tried him on the right side once, and he moved back to the left before the game was over. Any team claiming him would have to have an opening on the left side, not the right.
Friedman, on the other hand, has 42 games of NHL experience and a high level of comfort on both the right and left side of a defense pairing. His versatility could make him more risky to waive, because now he becomes an option for any team with a weakness on either side of a defense pairing, or a team looking for a good seventh defenseman to carry around. Ruhwedel has also shown the ability to be a good seventh defenseman, and is able to be scratched for long periods of time and step into a lineup and be effective when needed. That could be appealing for teams looking for an extra defenseman.
Putting Caggiula, Zohorna and Joseph on waivers and re-assigning them to Wilkes-Bare would give the Penguins a 22-man roster and $133,158 of cap space.
That's far from ideal, teams don't want to go into a season that close to the cap. Ideally a team would have enough wiggle room for at least one recall in case of injury or illness. Putting players on regular injured reserve doesn't free up any cap space, only long-term injured reserve provides cap relief. For minor ailments during the season, teams need to have enough cap space to recall players on their own.
3. Trade somebody
One more trade is still the ideal scenario here. And the Penguins have enough depth options at forward and defense that it could be a number of players.
At forward, Zucker hasn't exactly lived up to his $5.5 million cap hit since being acquired, though a big reason for that has been his inability to stay healthy. Like we saw last season at times, even when he is "healthy" and in the lineup, he's clearly managing some sort of injury that keeps him from being as effective as he could be.
The trouble with moving Zucker is that he has a modified no-trade clause that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list. With a flat salary cap, the number of teams around the league who could afford to take on a significant amount of salary in a trade is small. Zucker could make it difficult for the Penguins to trade him by filling his no-trade list with teams like Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago and other bottom-feeders with ample cap space.
Moving out one of the defensemen seems like a more likely scenario. As I wrote in this week's Friday Insider, Pettersson seemed like a likely trade piece earlier in the summer, because his cap hit of $4,025,175 isn't that unreasonable, and at 26 years old he's young enough that he could be appealing to a younger rebuilding team. His name hasn't come up much as of late, but a source told me that "if the return is good enough, he’s gone." Pettersson has three years remaining on his current contract, and this coming season is his final year without any trade protection. For the final two year of his contract, he has a modified no-trade clause that allows him to submit an eight-team no-trade list. If he's going to be moved, now would be a good time to do it.
Another option is Dumoulin and his $4 million cap hit. Moving him might be trickier. He turns 31 in September and is in the final year of his contract. A rebuilding team might not see him as a long-term option, and his 10-team no-trade list could ensure that he doesn't end up on those teams like Arizona or Chicago anyway. Dumoulin struggled at times last season, but he remains Letang's preferred partner on the top pairing, and it's not quite clear who might step into that role if Dumoulin is moved out.
There are a number of ways for the Penguins to get cap-compliant before the start of the season. They have two and a half months to figure out a path.
