Drive to the Net: Realistic expectations for Crosby, Malkin this year

As their roster is currently constructed, the Penguins don't figure to be among a select group of Stanley Cup favorites heading into this coming season.

That said, barring decimating injuries the Penguins should comfortably secure a postseason berth and finish inside the top three of the Metropolitan Division that shouldn't be quite as strong as it has been for the past several seasons.

It's not a secret that anything can happen once you make the postseason. While seeding plays a role in matchups and home-ice advantage, the rest of your regular-season triumphs (or lack thereof) go completely out the window. From there, it's all about capturing lightning in a bottle and hoping the stars align.

Realistically, capturing lightning in a bottle means receiving slightly above average to significantly above average goaltending along with consistent offensive contributions from complementary and depth forwards.

Still, both of those items are irrelevant if a team's star players aren't carrying the brunt of the workload and bringing consistent, stellar play.

Outside of Jake Guentzel -- who isn't exactly a youngster anymore -- the Penguins' best players are pretty old relative to the rest of the NHL getting older, but Mike Sullivan's confidence in his core is unwavering.

"I believe we have an opportunity to win again," Sullivan said. "I believe in these guys. I just think they're that good. They're that driven. And they're willing to put the work in to do what it takes."

You won't see any argument with that here.

Let's be real. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin aren't Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. Kris Letang isn't Cale Makar.

Yeah, it'd be great if they were, but they don't need to be to bring the Penguins back to glory, as long as everything else falls into place, of course. Not being forced to start your AHL goaltender for the majority of a playoff series comes to mind.

The "getting older" stars are nearing the twilight of their careers but aren't done yet.

Here's a look at what we can realistically expect from the Penguins' top two centers during the 2022-23 season.

Sidney Crosby
Age: 35
2021-22 stats: 69 games, 31 goals, 53 assists, 62.3% 5v5 on-ice goals share, 54.7% 5v5 on-ice expected goals share

There's no other way of putting it: Crosby isn't slowing down. There are no signs that he won't remain one of the very best in the league for another season, at the very least.

Fully admitting at least a bit of luck played a factor last season, a 62.3% share of goals during 5-on-5 play is absolutely absurd considering Crosby's quality of competition.

The 1.22 points per game he averaged last season was the highest mark he achieved since the 2018-19 season when he paced at 103 points over 82 games. If that's not impressive enough, consider his points per game average from last season is tied for the 11th-highest average in a single season by a player 34 or older in NHL history.

No words will ever be able to provide justice to what Crosby truly means to Pittsburgh as an icon and human being. If his even-strength production keeps up the way it has to this point, words won't be able to do his on-ice performance justice, either, if that wasn't the case already:

Don't get me wrong, Crosby's even-strength production isn't anywhere near the insane rates we saw from 2007 to 2013, but it's quite remarkable that, coming off wrist surgery, he saw an uptick in primary assists per hour (A1/60) from the previous season and generated more quality chances per hour (individual expected goals/60) than each of the previous two seasons.

Obviously Crosby is one of the greatest to ever lace 'em up and doesn't deserve to be lumped in with the masses, but many forwards see drastic drops around this age. There isn't even a hint of that with Crosby, unless you want to nitpick his even-strength goal-scoring rate dropping rather insignificantly from 1.04 goals per hour to 0.87 over the past three seasons.

However, during all situations last season Crosby saw each of his goal-scoring rate, primary assist rate and chance generation rate increase from the 2020-21 season:

I wouldn't go as far as saying Crosby is trending upward -- which would be quite the insinuation at this stage -- but the fact remains that he isn't falling off. Not at all.

Maybe the most intriguing part of all is that Crosby attempted 14.5 shots per hour last season. That's the highest frequency in which he has shot the puck since 2017-18, and it didn't come at the cost of his playmaking ability. According to the manual tracking of Corey Sznajder from AllThreeZones, Crosby ranked in the 97th percentile of cross-slot passes and 97th percentile of shot assists (passes that directly lead to a shot) among league forwards at 5-on-5.

All of which led him to an isolated impact toward the Penguins' ability to generate quality offense that was bested by only a handful of forwards across the league, per JFreshHockey.

It'd be foolish to suggest things will stay this way for even another three seasons considering he's bucking the age curve as we speak, but it also would be foolish to predict any sort of meaningful decline without a single indicator that it's coming.

This season you should expect Crosby to easily tie Gordie Howe for second place in NHL history with his 17th point-per-game season. It's not out of the equation for Crosby to tie or overtake Wayne Gretzky at No. 1 with 19 point-per-game seasons, either.

If the Penguins make a run, it will be on his back, just as it always was.

Evgeni Malkin
Age: 36
2021-22 stats: 41 games, 20 goals, 22 assists, 44.8% 5v5 on-ice goals share, 56.1% 5v5 on-ice expected goals share

It was a necessity for the Penguins to re-sign Malkin this offseason to keep this window alive -- sorry, Vincent Trocheck and Nazem Kadri weren't replacing his impact -- and Ron Hextall got the job done.

What Malkin has done into his mid-30s and despite chronic injuries is remarkable in its own right. Scoring 20 goals in 41 games immediately upon returning from major knee surgery last season comes to mind.

Many dubbed last season as the drop-off of Malkin's even-strength play. Although a couple of metrics might suggest so, the drop-off narrative doesn't hold much weight after applying context.

Malkin's 44.8% on-ice goals share at 5-on-5 was the lowest of his career, but the Penguins controlled 56.1% of the expected goals during his ice time, the fifth-highest share of his career. The discrepancy has much more to do with Penguins goalies surrendering 0.7 goals more than expected every hour Malkin spent on the ice. Additionally, the Penguins scored nearly 0.6 fewer goals than expected per hour with him on the ice.

The latter figure can be attributed to the likes of Kasperi Kapanen and Danton Heinen enduring serious goal droughts while playing with Malkin despite the chances being there. Only four NHL forwards received worse finishing from their line mates than Malkin did last season, according to JFreshHockey.

Malkin's even-strength primary assist rate from last season checked in at a career-low 0.31 per hour. That would be infinitely more alarming if he didn't rank in the 97th percentile of shot assists and the 98th percentile of making center-lane passes. A positive regression should be in order here, and if he continues to create for his line mates to such a degree, it could be massive.

He also saw his even-strength goal-scoring and chance creation rates jump back above his levels from 2019-20 ... one of the very best seasons of his career.

The same held true during all situations:

For whatever reason, Malkin's strong power-play production is often used against him in regard to his overall impact when it should be looked at as something the Penguins can continue to leverage.

It's not the most in-depth way to look at it, but the Penguins saw a significant increase in power-play goals and quality chances the second Malkin returned to the lineup on Jan. 12. If, for whatever reason, Malkin's even-strength demise comes to fruition as some have suggested, he remains an incredibly lethal weapon with the man-advantage thanks to his ability to score from distance and find line mates in open ice.

His defense is below replacement-level and won't be getting much -- if any -- better moving forward, yet Malkin's offensive contributions are still so elite (yes, elite) that it quite literally does not matter. The notion that his style causes the rest of the team to stray from Sullivan's system is utter clownery.

Being another year older isn't going to do Malkin any favors when it comes to his performance, but it's hard not to think that he could be in for a huge season now that he's had a full summer of health and figures to receive much better finishing from his wingers at evens.

Expect him to miss a chunk of games throughout the season, but don't be surprised if his production rates at least rival Crosby's by the time spring rolls around.

If Malkin finds his beast mode, the Penguins' one-two punch up the middle will once again be among the best in the NHL.

That only bodes well for their chances of pushing for one more Stanley Cup.