ALTOONA, Pa. -- Hey, I picked Penn State to lose the game. And it very easily could have lost to Purdue on Thursday, had the Boilermakers not blown it with their time management or merely completed one more pass to seal the deal.
That's the slim margin for error many of us expected going into the game and, as mentioned, my prediction gave the home team the benefit of the doubt in a coin-flip game.
But the Nittany Lions did win, 35-31. And it was a good win. A really good win, in fact, all things considered, because it came in the opener, on the road, versus a Big Ten opponent that is pretty good. And because the Lions had to overcome a lot of adversity to get the win.
Yes, it was an ugly win.
Yes, Penn State made a lot of mistakes.
But what did you expect? Honestly?
This is where trying to dissect a game like the Purdue one gets interesting. Because it really comes down to expectations you had for Penn State going in, and whether or not the team met or surpassed your own expectations.
Since I picked the Lions to lose, obviously I had a lot of concerns. So, even though I know I can be pretty critical of Penn State at times, I'm not gonna nitpick as much as I could in this one because, again, the Lions DID WIN.
Now, if you were picking a big victory going in, or you expected Penn State to play really well, here's my question for you: Why?
Why on earth would anyone have had really high expectations for an unranked team coming off a 7-6 season, one that lost a bunch of players to the NFL, and one that had a litany of question marks entering play?
More than criticizing Penn State for how it played, I would criticize any of you fans who went into that game fully expecting a lot more than what we saw.
Why would you have felt overly confident in any way, shape or form that the Lions were somehow gonna be some finely tuned machine after what we saw last year, and especially in a Big Ten road opener?
OK, with that, here's my breakdown of good news/bad news for the program after week one:
Good news: The Lions won. Never, ever feel bad about a win, as we discussed extensively right here in this week's We Are podcast.
Bad news: No, they did not look good for large portions of the game. We all know that how Penn State played in that contest won't be enough to beat Ohio State, or Michigan on the road. It probably won't be good enough to win at Auburn in two weeks. But you know what ...
Good news: We don't have to judge Penn State on any of those games just yet, so we all can sort of take a chill pill here and just appreciate this one victory. Because, yes, it absolutely could have been a loss, in which case everyone would be ticked off.
Bad news: This is probably the most important critique I've got about the game: This looked like the same Penn State team we saw last year. In other words, just a continuation of the same-old, same-old, without a whole heck of a lot of reason to believe things are going to be much different this season. The offensive line still couldn't run block. Sean Clifford still looked crazy inconsistent. The defense still got beaten more than it should. I picked Penn State to go 7-5 this season, and that prediction is probably out the window now because this was a nice opening win. But the reasons I picked Penn State to go 7-5 are all still there, so my confidence in the team and the program hasn't been uplifted in any meaningful way by what we watched Thursday.
Good news: Joey Porter Jr. was all over the place, because he had to be. Purdue decided to go at Porter all night long, throwing his way 14 times, and he came up with a lot of good plays to prevent receptions. The following stat is meaningful, and what we saw from Porter on his good plays is a reason why he's considered a potential first-round draft pick.
Joey Porter Jr. had SIX forced incompletions last night against Purdue.
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 2, 2022
Tied for the most in a game by a Power Five CB since PFF began charting College Football in 2014 🐾 pic.twitter.com/K5P4Kpcl4S
Bad news: Porter also dropped an interception that would have been huge because it was deep in Purdue territory. And he committed a pass interference penalty in the end zone, being too aggressive, which often was the case last year. The bottom line with Porter is that his skill set gives him the ability to be a star defensive player, but he's still not quite there yet when it comes to controlling his aggression and playing with proper technique at all times. Did Porter have a great game? Yeah, some of his stats would suggest that. But Purdue kept going after him time and time and time again because they were trying to take advantage of his over-aggressive style and lack of technique, and for a portion of the game, that strategy actually worked.
Good news: Nothing fazes Clifford. Because he's been around forever, he has seen it all and been in every possible situation a college quarterback can be in. He will never be intimidated by any environment, there is no moment that will ever be too big for him, and he proved that he can put the team on his back when it needs him most to win a game.
Bad news: Clifford the quarterback still is only average. For all the intangibles going in his favor, he's still just not a good enough quarterback to feel like he can make it through entire games playing really well and without hurting the offense at some point or another.
Good news: The running game had 77 yards in the first half, a solid number. The coaches were committed to running the ball and getting all four tailbacks in for some experience.
Bad news: The Lions finished with only 98 yards rushing, just 21 in the second half, and averaged a mere 3.1 yards per carry. That's awful, really. Last year's running game averaged 108 yards per game, the second-worst total in program history, and here Penn State had even fewer yards than that in game one.
Good news: The young running backs, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, ran with purpose and look like they have a lot of potential. We all expected that coming in, and there is reason to think those guys can help turn the ground game around with their talent.
Bad news: The offensive line was not good. Again. I mean, after dissecting this group for months entering the season, and being assured by Phil Trautwein and Mike Yurcich that the problems have been fixed, does anyone -- ANYONE? -- honestly feel any better about the line than you did last season? Goodness, how much do we have to beat this dead horse?
Good news: Good for Keyvone Lee, who caught the game-winning touchdown pass. That guy gets overlooked by everyone because we all want to see what Singleton and Allen can do, but Lee is going to be needed to have a productive season as the most experienced guy.
Bad news: The running back by committee thing is a problem when you're trying to rotate four guys. It's too many. A guy gets hot and involved in the game, then has to go sit on the bench for 45 minutes until it's hist turn again in the rotation. That simply cannot be the best way to do things.
Good news: Mitchell Tinsley looks like a No. 1 wide receiver. He caught seven for 184 and a TD.
Bad news: Parker Washington didn't do much with only two catches for 30 yards. That's not a good enough use of his skills.
Good news: The tight ends caught five passes for 100 yards and a touchdown, coming on Brenton Strange's 67-yard score thanks to poor tackling by Purdue. The offense will be at its best when it gets the tight ends heavily involved.
Bad news: Hmmmm, this is a tough one, because it's really good and bad. Clifford ran only five times for 11 yards. He had opportunities to run more and could have picked up decent yardage. This offense, the way it's been run for years and especially with the struggles in the running game, needs to have the quarterback pick up yards with his feet. It just does. And Clifford is good at it. But ... the good news part is that, if Clifford is going to make a conscious effort to stay in the pocket and not run, it probably will be better for his health because he won't be taking as many hits.
Good news: Drew Allar looked good when he had to fill in for Clifford in a pinch. Allar looked poised and ready for the moment, and he certainly showed a good arm. He looks like he could develop into exactly like the kind of guy Penn State fans have been hoping for -- a game changer at quarterback who can make a lot of plays.
Bad news: Stop it with the whole "play Allar over Clifford" nonsense. It's stupid. So stop. Clifford gives this team its best chance to win, and as long as he's healthy, that will probably remain the case all season. Now, as I've stated before, if the Lions lose three games early, then yes, go ahead and make the move to Allar and start preparing for the future -- even if Clifford still might give the team its best chance to win any given week. But to suggest going away from Clifford just because Allar looked good for one series is beyond dumb. If this team has ANY chance of going 10-2 this season, it will be largely because of Clifford and his experience.
Good news: Penn State won, and it can thank Purdue coach Jeff Brohm for continuing to throw the ball up 31-28 rather than killing time with running plays.
Bad news: As mentioned above, Purdue very easily could have won this game, and Brohm's clock management wouldn't have been an issue if only Aidan O'Connell had completed one more pass.
But that's not what happened, and Penn State found a way to win. That's really the only good news that matters.