UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Penn State hasn't been able to run the ball effectively in, well, it seems like forever. Conventional wisdom would say that could change Saturday against an overmatched opponent in Ohio.
All signs would point to a heavy focus on the ground game, from needing to work on the offensive line, to rotating in four tailbacks and getting them experience. It's also an embarrassment that Penn State hasn't had a 100-yard rusher since Keyvone Lee ran for 134 at Michigan in 2020, and you know James Franklin would love to finally end that dubious streak at 17 games.
But there's a catch: Ohio's run defense was pretty good in last week's 41-38 win over Florida Atlantic, allowing only 100 yards, while the pass defense was awful. The Bobcats gave up 364 yards passing and five TDs to N'Kosi Perry, the former starter at Miami, under current Lion defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, no less.
That little small-world coincidence involving Diaz and Perry is interesting. You know Diaz fully understands what Perry is capable of doing as a quarterback, so watching his former player slice up Ohio's defense just one week ago has to be beneficial from a scouting standpoint. One would think Diaz's input would be very welcome this week by offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich.
So, here's the issue: The Nittany Lions probably can blow out Ohio if Sean Clifford comes out throwing a ton, but that would be at the expense of developing the running game. However, by heavily committing to running the ball, it will shorten the game and might keep the score a little closer than expected, which would have one negative byproduct.
If the game is somewhat close, it could prevent Franklin from being able to give some of the younger players more playing time, including backup quarterback Drew Allar. Franklin has stated often that he wants more guys to get experience, and the way you do that is to blow out teams like Ohio.
But let me ask, does anyone think Penn State can blow out Ohio or anybody else by running the ball all day? For a reminder, the Lions had only 80 yards rushing last season against FCS Villanova, and everybody went into that game thinking it would be a chance to get the running game on track.
One final stat: Ohio was 94th in the nation last year against the run, giving up a whopping 193.7 yards per game. Because of that, I do expect Franklin to go run heavy early in the game and see where it takes the team, and then to maybe air it out more a little later to build a lead so that some backups can get playing time.
And of course, we will continue to see the running back by committee, with Lee, Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Devyn Ford all getting opportunities. Franklin bristled at a question following last week's game at Purdue about whether utilizing such a committee is the best way to do things, and he confirmed this week that the committee will in fact remain.
“We’re going to rotate those guys by series,” Franklin said Wednesday.
“However it plays out with touches just really depends on the drive and the series and what’s called,” Franklin added. “Like I’ve talked about in the past, if one of those guys get really hot, then obviously the rotation could change. But right now, it’s one-to-one.”
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Penn State (1-0) vs. Ohio (1-0)
• When: Noon, Saturday
• Where: Beaver Stadium
• Weather: 73°, 0% chance rain, 6-mph wind
• TV: ABC
• Radio: Penn State Sports Radio Network
• Satellite: Sirius XM 84, online 957
• Media notes: Penn State | Ohio
TWO REASONS
Two reasons Penn State will win:
1. The Lions are favored by 24.5 points, so no one expects this to be close. Penn State is far superior on defense, so don't count on Ohio doing a whole lot, and the Lions have too many weapons on offense for the Bobcats to defend.
2. This is the home opener, so you know the Lions want to go out and put on a good show and build some enthusiasm following two disappointing seasons.
Two reasons Ohio could win:
1. Well, Penn State could forget to show up. Like, the whole team collectively forgets to set alarms.
2. Joking aside, Ohio did score 41 points last week, with QB Kurtis Rourke completing 27-of-34 for 345 yards and four TDs. If he has another big day, the Bobcats could be able to stay within striking distance for a while.
FIVE KEYS
My five keys for Penn State in the game:
1. The Lions need to execute well offensively, whether that's running a bunch or throwing a lot. Personally, I feel like airing it out would be the path to the easiest victory, but as stated above, that wouldn't help the running game develop. The offensive line MUST have a good game run blocking -- because if not now, then when -- and Franklin knows that, so he'll give those guys a lot of opportunities to prove themselves. Many people are expecting Penn State to finally have a 100-yard rusher, but I'm going to predict that won't happen because the rotation will prevent any single back from getting enough carries to pull that off.
2. Sure, Ohio threw for a bunch of yards last week, but that was not against this Penn State defense or pass rush. The Lions have really good players in the secondary who will make things tougher on the receivers, and the guys up front will put pressure on Rourke and force him into mistakes. One of the most impressive stats from last week's win at Purdue is that the Lions held Aidan O'Connell to 50 percent passing (29-of-58), after he completed 71 percent last season.
3. Allar needs to play in this game. I'm not just talking about 2-3 series of mop-up duty in the fourth quarter, either. It would be awesome to see No. 15 trot out for a series, say, early in the second quarter with the game still close. Or the third quarter. Or whenever. Most coaches HATE doing that kind of thing and creating any kind of quarterback controversy, and I'm sure Franklin is well aware of all the criticism Clifford receives from the fan base. But the Lions are going to need Allar to step up at some point this season when Clifford can't go for a short or long period, and every game rep the freshman can get in the meantime will help. I cannot imagine Clifford would be bothered by that given his stature on the team, experience and maturity.
4. Win convincingly. There wasn't much pretty about last week's victory at Purdue, but a win is a win in that situation opening the season on the road against a Big Ten team. This game does not fall into the "a win is a win" category. The Lions need to come out and impose their will on both sides of the ball, win going away and establish confidence -- in themselves and with the fan base.
5. Stay healthy. This is Penn State's tuneup game for the season, and the last thing the team needs is for any key players getting hurt before next week's big game at Auburn.
PREDICTION
Penn State 39, Ohio 16. The Bobcats' defense is not good, but I can't predict any more points than this because Penn State still may have some issues running the ball.
HOW TO BET THE GAME
Penn State is favored by 24 1/2 points. The over/under is 53.5.
You can buy the number up to Ohio +27 for -141. I love that play, and it won't cost you a ton of vig ($100 would pay out $71).
I initially liked the over here, as well, thinking the Bobcats might pull their weight with a lot of points. But the more I studied their offense, the more I became concerned. So I would stay away from that figure.
Update: As of 11:20 p.m. Friday, the line had moved to Penn State -28, a jump of 3 1/2 points in only a few hours. Not sure why, but that's a huge jump. Since I already loved Ohio at +27 for the extra vig of -141, go ahead and jump on the Bobcats at +28 for -110.
