CRANBERRY, Pa. -- Penguins training camp has officially arrived, and will get underway at 9 a.m. today at the UPMC Lemieux Sports Complex here in Cranberry.
In the coming days and weeks we'll be diving into the details of the Penguins' season outlook, realistic expectations, as well as the questions they're currently facing.
But for now, we're going team by team through the Metropolitan Division to figure out which clubs present threats to the Penguins, and which clubs don't stand a chance at doing any damage this season.
BASEMENT-DWELLING
Columbus Blue Jackets
2021-22: Sixth in Metro, 81 points
The Blue Jackets -- in a shock to everyone, including themselves -- landed the big fish of the offseason in Johnny Gaudreau, inking him to a seven-year, $68.25 million contract. Gaudreau is unquestionably one of the game's best wingers, but he alone isn't enough to compensate for the deficiencies the Blue Jackets have elsewhere. The timing of making such an impact signing also accelerated their competitive window, potentially to a fault.
There's absolutely something to be said for signing such a big name player after seemingly every other big name player who has donned a Blue Jackets sweater has either wanted out or eventually signed elsewhere. However, Gaudreau is 29. The Blue Jackets have made out like bandits in each of the past two drafts, picking up significant high-end talent at both forward and defense, but all of the draft picks are at least three years away from reaching a point you'd be comfortable dubbing the beginning of their primes. It's fair to question if this move was made because it's the right time, or because of the novelty effect of finally landing a big-time free agent.
Gaudreau will certainly have the opportunity to build some chemistry with Patrik Laine on the first line. Gaudreau's precision playmaking combined with Laine's lethal finishing ability could prove to be dominant, but there's also the concern that Laine's utter lack of a defensive pulse, in addition to lacking a legit No. 1 center, will limit the amount of time that line plays with the puck on their sticks.
Last season, the Blue Jackets' 44.2% share of 5-on-5 expected goals ranked ahead of only the Coyotes, and though their 45.1% share of actual goals (ranked No. 25 in the NHL) was a bit better, it was likely influenced by a fortuitous 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 9.12% that ranked sixth in the league.
Even if 19-year-olds Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger (two of the 2021 draft picks I referenced) make much for of an impact than you'd expect at this stage of their development, the Blue Jackets aren't going to collectively get enough from Jack Roslovic, Jakub Voracek and Gustav Nyquist to push the group of forwards closer to being postseason-caliber. Roslovic grades out much closer to a No. 3 center than a No. 2, and while Voracek remains a great passer, he is a nonexistent shooting threat, as he recorded only six goals and 147 shots in 79 games last season.
The subtraction of Oliver Bjorkstrand, who was dealt to the Kraken in exchange for draft capital to free up cap space for Gaudreau, really stands out here. He was easily their best forward overall before Gaudreau was signed.
22-year-old winger Kirill Marchenko will be making the jump to the NHL this season and could be a pleasant surprise as a source of depth offense, but after posting 20 points in 39 KHL games last season, expectations shouldn't be lofty.
There's Zach Werenski on the back end (who, quite frankly, doesn't bring the same value as many other No. 1 defenders) and a whole lot of meh everywhere else. Adam Boqvist and Vladislav Gavrikov are fine and useful players, but the rest of the Blue Jackets' defense corps is comprised of replacement-level defenders in Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke and Jake Bean.
I don't see a thing to suggest the Blue Jackets will see significant improvements on their 31st-ranked 5-on-5 goals against rate or dead-last 5-on-5 chance suppression rate from a season ago.
The Blue Jackets will be competitive and in the thick of things in several seasons, but for now, they aren't close to making much noise.
Philadelphia Flyers
2021-22: Eighth in Metro, 61 points
Simply put, the Flyers are nowhere near the point of contending for a playoff spot. That's been apparent to everyone since before the offseason even began ... except for the Flyers.
General manager Chuck Fletcher, just months after unnecessarily splurging $25.5 million on a five-year extension for Rasmus Ristolainen despite his poor impacts not improving after being acquired from the Sabres, went out and spent what little cap space the Flyers had available on a two-year, $10 million contract for Tony DeAngelo. Although DeAngelo is one of the better offensive defensemen across the league, he gives a ton of it back defensively and isn't equipped to handle the top-pairing deployment he figures to receive this season. He also certainly benefitted from playing on a strong Hurricanes team last season.
It was a bold assumption on Fletcher's end to assume the Flyers could be competitive this season even if Sean Couturier and Ryan Ellis were in the mix, but now that both are confirmed to be out for the start of the season and could miss significant time, it would be bold to assume the Flyers won't wind up among the worst teams in the league when everything is said and done.
The Flyers finished last season with a 45.5% share of 5-on-5 goals and a 45.7% share of 5-on-5 expected goals (ranked No. 22 and No. 28 in the NHL, respectively) and their roster hasn't improved in a vacuum.
With Couturier out, Kevin Hayes and Scott Laughton figure to slot in as the Flyers' No. 1 and No. 2 centers. Hayes, who carries a steep $7,142,857 cap hit, has always been a bit points-dependent as a No. 2 center. He's not the kind of player who does a ton to drive play, and this issue only figures to get worse with him slotted in as the top guy up the middle.
It's really, really bleak for the Flyers up front. They'll be paying $7 million for 33-year-old James van Riemsdyk to play a middle-six role, $5.875 million for declining 33-year-old Cam Atkinson to be a top-six staple on the right wing, and $5.5 million for Travis Konecny, whose progression hit a wall out of nowhere two seasons ago.
On the blue line, Ivan Provorov is the Flyers' highest-paid defender at $6.75 million a season, but he isn't their best. The 25-year-old appeared to be on his way to becoming one of the better defensemen in the league at the end of the 2017-18 season, but he has been extremely inconsistent since then and has struggled mightily each of the past two seasons.
I almost forgot to mention that the Flyers signed 35-year-old Justin Braun this offseason after trading him to the Rangers at the 2021-22 trade deadline. Apparently, watching Braun get tormented by the Penguins in the first round of the postseason wasn't enough for them to finally move on for good from the now extremely limited defender.
The one factor that could dramatically influence the Flyers' season in a positive manner is the performance of Carter Hart in goal, but that, too, is probably nothing more than wishful thinking at this stage. Even accounting for the Flyers' porous chance suppression the past two seasons, Hart has surrendered a disastrous 25 goals more than expected of him, ranking No. 121 out of 122 goalies. Goaltending is tough to project in general, but the team in front of Hart will be actively working against his hopes of a rebound season.
Regardless, this team is in need of a complete makeover -- the kind that takes years and years. Yet management keeps pushing for competitiveness to the point of futility.
The Flyers won't come anywhere near the postseason, and likely won't for several seasons. John Tortorella has an insurmountable task on his hands as head coach.
POTENTIAL TROUBLE
New Jersey Devils
2021-22: Seventh in Metro, 63 points
Are the Devils ready to take the next step? It feels like we've been asking that for several seasons. Well, I think they're on their way, but I still see a team that is closer to the middle of the pack than anything else.
They weren't nearly as bad last season as their -59 goal differential or 45.5% share of 5-on-5 goals would lead you to expect. They received the second-worst goaltending in the NHL with an abominable .883 save percentage during all situations, and had their netminders been even somewhat competent, there wouldn't be such a stark contrast from their respectable 50.6% share of 5-on-5 expected goals.
In addition to hoping Mackenzie Blackwood, who has given up 27 more goals than expected the past two seasons, finally figures it out in the crease, the Devils are also hoping that offseason addition Vitek Vanecek can stabilize the tandem even though he has given up 10 more goals than expected the past two seasons.
Last season, Jack Hughes started to piece together what it takes to reach his potential, recording 26 goals and 30 assists in 49 games to go along with some of the league's strongest transition and passing metrics. He is on the cusp of superstardom, and I suspect he's in for a mammoth season.
Jesper Bratt has emerged as an elite driver of quality offense, and Nico Hischier is trending toward being one of the better two-way No. 2 centers in the league if he's not there already. Aside from those three at forward, though, there aren't many needle-movers relative to their placement in the lineup.
Ondrej Palat is 31 and doesn't figure to reach a level that's all that close to his peak with the Lightning, even if he rides shotgun for Hughes' breakout. Tomas Tatar underwhelmed in his first season with the team. Miles Wood, Erik Haula and Andreas Johnsson don't figure to make a substantial impact. I have a tough time envisioning this being an above-average group up front, though I do think another strong showing from Yegor Sharangovich would help the cause.
That said, I'm a big fan of their group of defensemen that features Dougie Hamilton, Damon Severson and John Marino down the right side. There's also Simon Nemec, who the Devils took with the No. 2 overall pick in this past draft. It remains to be seen if he'll start off in the NHL right away, but whenever the time comes, he is going to be a very, very good player.
They aren't as strong down the left side with Ryan Graves, Jonas Siegenthaler and Brendan Smith, but they should be able to find pairings that work thanks to how deep they are down the right side.
I'm not expecting the Devils to push for a spot in the postseason. As they're constructed, they would need moderately above-average goaltending to have a real chance of doing so, and I'm not convinced either of Blackwood or Vanecek are the answer. Still, there could be some positive regression in order for both goalies. If so, the Devils should at least be in the mix a bit later into the season.
New York Islanders
2021-22: Fifth in Metro, 84 points
The Islanders are in for an interesting season.
On paper, they really lack elite or premium talent at forward outside of Mat Barzal, who has struggled to put up point totals that match his apparent speed, skill and offensive impact on the game. It's not a great sign that he just had an awful season on the defensive side of the puck in which his impact ranked in the fifth percentile of league forwards.
Brock Nelson is coming off a 37-goal season in 72 games, but the Islanders should be prepared for his total to dip back into the mid-20s or low-30s over a full 82 games. He shot 21.6% after consecutive seasons at 14.9%, and had never finished a season higher than 15.8%. His overall offensive impact has been on the rise each of the past two seasons. Turning 31 in October, perhaps a pullback is in order across the board for Nelson, and the Islanders can't afford it.
Anders Lee is another one of the Islanders' offensive threats, but his defensive impact has gone from respectable to atrocious over the past three seasons. As a result, the 32-year-old has seen a steady dip in ice time to the point that he was closer to high-end third-line minutes than low-end first-line minutes by the end of last season.
The Islanders have $19.15 million tied up between Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Kyle Palmieri and Anthony Beauvillier, which isn't ideal. All four players are trending in the wrong direction, and although Palmieri enjoyed a bit of a bounce-back in the play-driving department last season, his finishing ability has yet to return anywhere close to the level he was at as recently as 2019-20.
After that, there's the Matt Martin - Casey Cizikas - Cal Clutterbuck line that is unfathomably still intact. The trio doesn't have much of anything to offer offensively, but they still take care of business in their own end. They have to hold the record for the fourth line that has been kept together the longest.
Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock are a solid top-pairing on defense, though they might be punching above their weight just a tad in that role. 22-year-old Noah Dobson has been able to produce points at a decent clip thus far, but his overall play has led to middling impacts at both ends of the ice. It's possible that finally translates to a better offensive impact this season, and the Islanders would more than welcome it, because they aren't getting any blue line offense from Alexander Romanov, Scott Mayfield or Sebastian Aho.
Interestingly, the Islanders were not the same staunch defensive team last season as they were in past seasons. They ceded 2.66 expected goals against per hour at 5-on-5, which put them at No. 25 in the NHL. Luckily, they received outstanding goaltending (.926 save percentage during all situations) that masked their inability to limit quality chances against. Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin will have to be at the top of their games once again.
Maybe the slipping defensive results were part of the reason for the firing of Barry Trotz, but if that's the case, the question has to be asked: How much differently does new head coach Lane Lambert plan to run things? He was an assistant under Trotz, and this team is essentially the same as it was last season.
Getting back to a structured defensive game could propel this rather uninspiring roster into the hunt for a playoff spot, but it almost feels as if too many things need to go right for the Islanders to make that happen this season.
Washington Capitals
2021-22: Fourth in Metro, 100 points
Are the Capitals finally, officially out of the conversation regarding the best teams in the Metro?
The Capitals haven't won a postseason series since they hoisted the Stanley Cup in 2018, which also happened to be the most recent postseason that the Penguins won a series. Aside from that, their regular-season performances have done nothing to suggest they had the juice to go on any meaningful runs.
Last season, the Capitals finished right outside the top 10 at No. 11 with a 53.4% share of 5-on-5 goals, but that was almost entirely fueled by strong finishing, as they scored 0.26 goals more than expected every hour. Their ranking at No. 14 with a 51.1% share of 5-on-5 expected goals was likely more in line with their true standing in the league.
And that was with a full season of Tom Wilson and half a season of Nick Backstrom. The Capitals will start this season without both of them for a considerable amount of time. Wilson is rehabbing from ACL surgery and will miss at least several months. Backstrom underwent hip resurfacing surgery during the offseason, and while he is expected back at some point, there are very real concerns about the player he will be when he returns. And even then, it will be a struggle for him to stay in the lineup.
I'm not going to bet against Alex Ovechkin's scoring ability, even at 37 years old. He just potted 50 in 77 games and, if nothing else, seems intent on giving Wayne Gretzky a run for the NHL's all-time goal-scoring record. After Ovechkin, though, the Capitals better hope Evgeny Kuznetsov's resurgence to nearly a point per game last season was an actual return to form and not just a flash in the pan. If 2019-20 Kuznetsov shows up, the Capitals might be in jeopardy of not even being competitive.
Anthony Mantha and T.J. Oshie are the only other forwards of note toward the top of their lineup. Mantha isn't what he was in his prime with the Red Wings, but is still a serviceable source of secondary offense. Oshie, on the other hand, has maintained surprisingly strong impacts in his own zone, but his offensive impact is almost entirely limited to his finishing ability that he rarely utilizes, unless he has a prime opportunity to score.
21-year-old Connor McMichael could be given an expanded opportunity to make his mark and build upon a noteworthy rookie season in which his isolated impact on offense and defense ranked in the top quarter of league forwards, albeit playing a fourth-line role. For now, though, their crop of forwards might be at its weakest point in a very long time.
John Carlson seems to be aging in reverse, as he's got the production and strong on-ice metrics to back it up. Dmitry Orlov has sacrificed a small portion of his offense to round out his overall game and become a much better two-way player, and Nick Jensen is a nice complementary blue liner who can shut down mid-level competition. The rest of their defenders, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Martin Fehervary, Erik Gustafsson and Matt Irwin, don't impress me, and should either of Carlson or Orlov miss time due to injury, their blue line will be in for a bumpy ride.
Their splash of the offseason was signing Darcy Kuemper to a five-year, $26.25 million contract to be the guy between the pipes. He had a career-year with the Avalanche last season, posting a .921 save percentage and saving 15 goals more than expected. I'm not expecting a repeat of that performance this season, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up close to it.
For that reason, along with not wanting to bet against Ovechkin just yet, I believe the Capitals will stay in the playoff hunt and most likely make the dance. That said, it's going to be a struggle until Backstrom and Wilson make their way back into the lineup.
THREATS
Carolina Hurricanes
2021-22: First in Metro, 116 points
Despite the fact that the Hurricanes just had their best regular-season in franchise history, they have plenty of questions heading into the new season.
Don't get me wrong, the Hurricanes are the Penguins' biggest threat in the division, but I suspect they won't come all that close to 116 standings points again.
The vacancy at No. 2 center left behind by Vince Trocheck has paved the way for Martin Necas or Jesperi Kotkaniemi to establish themselves as impact players. Kotkaniemi, 22, finally produced above-average offensive impacts last season playing against low-level competition. Now, it's time to prove the Hurricanes made the right call by signing him to an eight-year contract.
Necas, 23, has been a replacement-level play-driver offensively and defensively each of the past three seasons. I've heard the Hurricanes became frustrated with his development, but still believe there's a positively impactful player in there. If that's true, it better come to fruition this season, because if it doesn't, it likely isn't coming at all.
I mention those two first because strong showings from both would re-solidify the Hurricanes' group of forwards. If they don't, the Hurricanes could be in for some secondary-scoring droughts. Sebastian Aho is a star, and Andrei Svechnikov, still only 22, is close to becoming one. Teuvo Teravainen is an unspectacular yet adequate complementary winger.
Those three can't do it alone, though. 20-year-old Seth Jarvis had an awesome rookie season in 2021-22, and should he continue trending upward in an expanded role, there would be less of a need for Necas or Kotkaniemi to make a huge jump.
Defensively, the Hurricanes are banking on 37-year-old Brent Burns to keep up his impacts a little longer, but his decline is already in effect. After Burns' offensive impact ranked in the 90th percentile of league defensemen in 2020-21, he fell to the 61st percentile last season. Jaccob Slavin is one of the best defensemen in the NHL, so it's fair to assume he could prolong a significant drop-off from Burns if they are paired together.
Conversely, Burns isn't winning any defensive defenseman of the year awards, and should he really start to feel his age, things could go south quickly. That's not out of the question for a 6-foot-5, 230-pound tank at his age.
The rest of the Hurricanes' blue line doesn't impress me, but the likes of Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Ethan Bear and Dylan Coghlan should be good enough to take care of business, so long as the forwards do their part.
The Hurricanes also acquired Max Pacioretty this offseason, but he later had surgery to repair a torn achilles and will be out until early 2023. The 33-year-old's offensive generation and finishing ability hasn't wavered at all to this point. Fully healthy, his presence would've had massive impacts on the rest of the lineup right away, but now it's anyone's guess as to the impact he'll have when he finally gets back on the ice.
Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta were one of the few goalie tandems across the NHL last season in which both goalies finished the season with a positive goals saved above expected. Even after assuming a negative regression is in line, there's nothing telling me those two won't be one of the better tandems once again this season.
Not only will they make the postseason with time to spare, it wouldn't shock me to see the Hurricanes repeat as Metro champions despite the questions they currently face.
New York Rangers
2021-22: Second in Metro, 110 points
The Rangers are going to be a threat to win the Metro every season that Igor Shesterkin is their goalie.
The Rangers team in front of Shesterkin last season was so poor at controlling play, that had Shesterkin been exactly league-average, the Rangers would have had a +10 goal differential. Their actual goal differential was +47. Yes, the absolute monster saved 37 goals more than expected -- one of the best single-season goaltending performances in the stats era.
Even though the Rangers controlled a lousy 47.7% of the expected goals at 5-on-5 last season, their actual share of 5-on-5 goals checked in at 51.6% largely thanks to Shesterkin and plus finishing from their forwards.
Chris Kreider exploded for 52 goals on the back of a 20.2% shooting percentage, but he shouldn't be expected to ever sniff that total again. I'd be willing to bet he doesn't sniff 40 again. It's not that Kreider isn't an outstanding player, but his goal total quite literally came out of nowhere. He had never scored 30 in a season before, but last season he picked up 26 goals on the power play alone.
Artemi Panarin remains one of the best offensive wingers in the league, though it is worth a mention that he went from great defensive impacts in 2019-20 to league-worst defensive impacts last season. His poor defensive performance would be easier to swallow if he could be propped up by a play-driving center on his line, but Mika Zibanejad's impact in that regard is much closer to league-average.
Regardless, the Penguins certainly found out during the postseason that those three don't need to have the puck on their sticks a whole lot to make you pay.
Further down the lineup, though, the Rangers' success at forward will depend on the improvement of Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko. Lafreniere, especially, has the potential to be an X-factor should he take a step toward the stardom expected of a No. 1 overall draft pick. He's becoming an efficient scorer at 5-on-5, but entering his third season, it's time for him to make more of an impact in other areas.
Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, Ryan Lindgren and K'Andre Miller are a strong top-four on defense, and could be even stronger if Miller fully develops into the shutdown defender he's shown glimpses of. While the Penguins created chances seemingly at will during their postseason series with the Rangers, Miller really stood out with his stickwork and defensive positioning.
I do find it a bit funny that 24-year-old Libor Hajek is being given yet another chance, considering he's been one of the absolute worst defenders in the league since he debuted. His impacts did slightly improve last season, but he still checked in well below replacement-level.
With Gerard Gallant still at the helm on the bench, I'm not expecting any sort of overhaul in style or tactics that will suddenly make the Rangers one of the NHL's better possession teams. I fully believe the Rangers once again plan to heavily ride Shesterkin as they wait for opportunities to counter-punch and quick-strike.
It's a bold strategy, but with Shesterkin in net, the Rangers are basically a lock for the postseason. Aside from the Hurricanes, they are the Penguins' biggest threat in the Metro.