Midweek top 10: Can Northwestern really be this bad?

ALTOONA, Pa. -- The point spread for Penn State's game this week against Northwestern is hard to believe.

The Nittany Lions opened Sunday as 22-point favorites, which seemed like a big number. But as of Wednesday afternoon, the line has soared all the way to 26.5.

With that, we'll kick off this debut edition of my midweek top 10, which will catch Penn State fans up on everything going on during the week throughout the Big Ten season.

1. Can Northwestern really be this bad?

When one team is favored by 26.5 points over a conference opponent, the favorite is obviously getting a lot of respect. Penn State is No. 11 in the country, so there's that.

But this number really has to be more about just how bad Northwestern has been so far this season. (Note: The line has dropped to 24.5 as of early Thursday.)

The Wildcats opened the season with a 31-28 win over Nebraska in Dublin. But the last three weeks have been a disaster for Pat Fitzgerald's team, leading to the disastrous point spread heading into Happy Valley.

Northwestern lost three straight at home to Duke (31-23), to Southern Illinois (31-24) and to Miami, Ohio (17-14). That's one bad ACC team, a MAC team and an FCS team.

The Wildcats' offense really struggled last week against a good Miami defense, and costly turnovers hurt. But Penn State's defense is one of the best in the nation, and the Nittany Lions have been tough and aggressive against the pass, which is the one thing the Northwestern offense does fairly well.

Quarterback Ryan Hilinski is averaging 305 yards passing per game and completes 63 percent, so he'll have to play efficiently for Northwestern to stay remotely close.

But again, we're not talking about trying to find a way that Northwestern can win the game. We're talking about a line that's 26.5 points. You would think the Wildcats, who traditionally have played Penn State tough, could find a way to keep it within four touchdowns.

The teams haven't met in five years, but here are the meetings in the 2000s:

2017: PSU 31-7 in Evanston
2015: NW 23-21 in Evanston
2014: NW 29-6 in University Park
2012: PSU 39-28 in University Park
2011: PSU 34-24 in Evanston
2010: PSU 35-21 in University Park
2009: PSU 34-13 in Evanston
2006: PSU 33-7 in University Park
2005: PSU 34-29 in Evanston
2004: NW 14-7 in University Park
2003: NW 17-7 in Evanston
2002: PSU 49-0 in University Park
2001: PSU 38-35 in Evanston

As you can see, this has been a competitive series with a lot of close games. Only one of the matchups has been decided by more than the current 26.5-point spread (2002 game).

Another thing going on in this game will be the pride factor. Kids don't get into Northwestern and then all of a sudden quit when things are going poorly. And neither does Fitzgerald. Their backs are against the wall, and even if the team isn't very good, that doesn't mean they're going to be walked over by 26.5 points.

All of which, once again, makes that line hard to believe.

2. Sean Clifford is different how this season?

Everybody wants to see Drew Allar play. It makes sense. The guy is the future of the QB position at Penn State.

But Clifford is doing exactly what he needs to be doing in the present to help the Lions keep winning.

Clifford has thrown eight TDs with only one interception, while completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 890 yards. He has protected the ball, which is by far the most important thing for him.

Of course, Clifford has lapses where he looks really average at times, and it happened again Saturday against Central Michigan. But at the same time, that game was never in doubt, and so he wasn't really needed to step up in clutch situations, like he did in the opener at Purdue with a game-winning TD drive late.

"I think he's much more even keeled that I've seen in terms of his demeanor," James Franklin said. "I still think he's having a ton of fun competing and being a leader, all the things that he's done for a while. But he's just more even keeled. He's not getting too high when things are good, he's not getting too low when we'd prefer to have a play back.

"What you're trying to do at all positions, but obviously at the quarterback position, is trying to maybe reduce or eliminate those three-to-six plays a game that you'd like to get rid of, and I think he's done a really good job of that."

3. Yeah, but what about that QB who got away?

At the time I was writing this, the front page story on ESPN was about former Penn State backup QB Will Levis, and how he could be the No. 1 overall draft pick in the NFL next year.

Unless Clifford somehow finds a way to lead Penn State to the College Football Playoff this year, there will always be people who wonder how in the world Penn State let Levis go in favor of a guy who has turned out to be pretty average throughout his career.

I cannot recommend enough for Penn State fans to go read the ESPN story (then come back here). It is exceptionally well done, with comments from Ricky Rahne and others, plus this excellent recap of what was going on with the whole Clifford and Levis thing at Penn State in 2020:

Rahne walked over to Joe Moorhead, who was then Penn State's offensive coordinator, and said, "Joe, we're crazy if we don't offer this kid," to which Moorhead responded, "Yeah, I was thinking the same thing."

Levis redshirted his first season at Penn State in 2018, and Moorhead left for the Mississippi State head job after the season, with Rahne promoted to offensive coordinator. He said it was never a case of the Nittany Lions not believing in Levis, but rather that they were winning games with Clifford and he was more equipped at that time to be the starter.

"Everyone always asks what happened and why Penn State didn't start Will over Sean," Rahne said. "When we first picked Sean, Will wasn't ready to start yet, and then it became hard to replace a guy who had won 11 games. People kind of forget that."

4. Could further Big Ten expansion be coming soon?

Some good reporting Wednesday by Dennis Dodd of CBSSports turned up the possibility of the Big Ten looking to add Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal, which would basically lead to the demise of the Pac-12.

A lot of it, Dodd reported, seems to hinge on the Big Ten perhaps finding another media rights partner, such as Amazon, which would add even more money to the league following its massive $1 billion deal last month with FOX.

Here's the key section of Dodd's story:

This as Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren continues to seek an offer from Amazon, or potentially another partner, for additional Big Ten football media rights revenue.

An offer deemed substantial enough would likely convince Big Ten presidents that California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington would be valuable additions to the league from the Pac-12. That figure is believed to be less than $100 million annually.

If the Big Ten makes such a move, it would almost certainly increase the likelihood the Big 12 is able to get some combination of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah from the Pac-12, thus crushing the Pac-12 and hanging Oregon State and Washington State out to dry.

5. What's the deal with Smith Vilbert?

The redshirt junior defensive end burst on to the scene with three sacks in the Outback Bowl last season against Arkansas. But we haven't seen Vilbert play yet this season, which has been mysterious.

Franklin only added to the mystery Tuesday.

Vilbert hasn't been in uniform during the Lions' first four games, but he apparently has been practicing. Franklin mentioned his name as the development squad defensive player of the week. That led to a follow-up question a bit later about Vilbert's status.

"Just not available," the coach said. "I'd like to sit down with Smith and make sure that me and him are on the same page. Again, like we talk about all the time, whatever it may be, whether it's injuries or whatever it may be, I don't like to make announcements here publicly before we have spoken so we're all on the same page. I've got a ton of respect for all the players in our program and I want to be respectful of their situations, whether it's personal, whether it's professional, whether it's academic, whatever it may be. I want to be respectful of those things.

"I'm really proud that Smith Vilbert is a part of our program, and I'll leave it at that for right now."

6. DBs putting on a show so far

Joey Porter Jr. has gotten a lot of the attention, but Penn State's entire secondary has played lights out this season.

"We're first in the country in PBUs (pass breakups) at 41, and the next closest is 25," Franklin said.

Porter had a whopping six of those at Purdue and leads the nation with nine. Kalen King is tied for 13th with six, while Johnny Dixon and Keaton Ellis have five apiece.

The secondary also features Ji'Ayir Brown, whose seven interceptions going back to last season leads the nation.

Penn State is well positioned with outstanding defensive backs, during a time when teams are throwing the ball a ton.

"The game has obviously changed, whether it's NFL, college, and even high school," Franklin said. "People are throwing the ball more than ever. Obviously, a big part of that has been the summer 7-on-7 circuit that's been going on for a while right now and people are so much further ahead.

"I think the other thing is the emphasis on explosive plays and the importance that they play in the result of the game. There's also been a major push of making it more of a space game with the spread emphasis that's on all levels now."

7. Porter a true shutdown corner

Porter's name hasn't been called as much since the Purdue game, in large part because teams just haven't been throwing his way much. When they do, he has consistently made the play.

Having a shutdown guy on one side of the field is enormous for a defense, and Franklin gave Porter this high praise:

"There's some examples that we show the team and we show the defense of really Joey just eliminating a guy in a play, that he's not even an option for the quarterback. I think there's a ton of value in that. Schematically, there's a ton of value in that. There's a ton of value in that as a defensive coordinator in maybe what you are able to do."

8. Evaluating Manny Diaz

The defensive coordinator has been one of the biggest stars in the program this season, implementing a smothering, aggressive style, which is exactly what everyone expected to see when he took over for Brent Pry. Penn State has forced four turnovers each of the past two weeks.

Franklin gave a glowing evaluation of Diaz.

"First of all, the guys like and respect him, which I think is important," the coach said. "I think stylistically and maybe visually, it looks a little different than how we've played (defense) in the past. Obviously, the turnovers are significantly different, especially in the last two games.

But I think our guys are getting more comfortable and more confident each week. I think he's getting more confident and comfortable each week in terms of knowing who our players are, what their strengths are, what their weaknesses are, how you call a game based on knowing your personnel better and getting more comfortable and familiar with the league."

One concern I had entering the season was how Penn State would play Diaz's aggressive style without giving up big plays. That hasn't been much of an issue, save for an occasional chunk play.

"The thing that I think we're doing a really good job of, which is probably the most important stat, is not giving up explosive plays for touchdowns," Franklin said. "Those are the ones that kill you, because if you're not giving up explosive plays for touchdowns and you're playing good red zone defense, then once again you have a chance to be pretty good in the stat that matters most, which is scoring defense."

Bingo. You couple the aggressive style with good DBs and a great red zone defense, and your defense has a chance to be outstanding.

9. Beer sales to start Saturday at Beaver Stadium

Penn State announced the following Wednesday about beer being available to the general public beginning with this week's game:

Penn State Athletics will begin beer sales at Beaver Stadium at Saturday’s (October 1) game against Northwestern. Beer offerings will be available for purchase throughout Beaver Stadium, with the exception of areas near the student section.

All patrons 21 years of age and older who purchase alcohol will be required to show government ID to obtain a wristband. Further, all IDs will be scanned to confirm they are legitimate.

Patrons can purchase a maximum of two beverages (16 oz. cans) at any one time. All beer locations will be cashless. Alcohol sales will conclude at the end of the third quarter, and alcohol is not permitted to leave the stadium.

Using their Happy Valley Hospitality, fans are encouraged to be loud and proud, be respectful and responsible, and be great fans and gracious hosts. Let’s keep our Beaver Stadium game day experience safe and one of the best in the country!

10. That's what he does! Former wrestler Nickal gets UFC contract

Bo Nickal is a baaaaad man. The former Penn State three-time national champion wrestler and Hodge winner has gone 5-0 in his young MMA career, including this quick submission victory Tuesday night.

That win was Nickal's second on the Contender Series, and it earned him a contract to fight in the UFC.

UFC President Dana White had some great praise -- and colorful language -- about Nickal's impressive growth as a fighter.

"I literally write notes to remind me (of the fights)," White said after Nickal's performance, via ESPN. "The only note on my paper is, 'god damn.' I mean, for a kid who has almost no experience, he took on a guy who's 6-foot-2, a 7-1 [record], 78-inch reach -- the confidence this kid had to roll into the triangle the way he did.

"Me and a lot of other people are excited to see the future this kid has. Welcome to the UFC."