It was a question that had been asked in various different ways this past week to the manager and players in the clubhouse. "Is the worst behind you?" "Are brighter days ahead?"
This time, it was "How far away is this team, Shelty?"
"That's a good question. I think we’re closer," Derek Shelton said shortly after game 162 was in the books. "To say how far away we are right now, I think it’s going to matter on what we do into the offseason, but I think we’re in good shape."
On Wednesday, the Pirates concluded their 136th season of play with a 5-3 win over the Cardinals, ending their season with a 62-100 record. It is the 10th time they lost at least 100 games, and the second straight year they have done so. Only the 1952-54 Pirate teams did that. It's as bad a stretch of baseball that almost any living Pittsburgher has seen.
Despite being mired in one of the worst stretches in franchise history, in this reporter's opinion, Shelton is 100% right. It's all coming down to this offseason. If this club so chooses, they could take a serious step forward in 2023. Perhaps not to World Series or even playoff contention, but did you pay attention to what happened in Baltimore this year? It should be possible to replicate something close to what the Orioles did, especially in a far less daunting division than the American League East.
If they can't do that in 2023, four years into a rebuild, then what are we to make of the state of that rebuild?
And they believe they can do it.
"I mean, look around," Wil Crowe said when asked what excited him about this group. "You have three rookies that hit 10 home runs [Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski and Diego Castillo]. You've still go B-Rey [Bryan Reynolds] here. You've got Mitch [Keller] and [JT] Brubaker and Bryse [Wilson], making steps. And you've got guys in the 'pen who are coming back or having good years as well.
"I think with our common core, our collective unit group we have here, you add a piece here, a piece there, a couple guys that can really help us take that next step and give us a little bit of veteran leadership. Give us a couple guys to take a little bit of pressure off the plate. It might open us up for a wider thing. You can see the common goal in here and see what's happening and you know what we have coming. But at the same time, you add a piece here, a piece there, and we've got a really good chance to be a really, really good team."
Perhaps you don't believe that. It doesn't matter. They do. Crowe was the one who, with fire in his belly, told me in San Diego back in May that "we’re a good f—ing team, and we believe it." Yeah, point at the 100 losses. I'll look at how a raw team coming off of its hardest series losses then went into Dodger Stadium and then swept the team that would go on to win 111 games. It was a glimpse of what they could do.
The rest of the season was the cold reminder that they weren't ready to expand upon that glimpse.
"Nobody likes losing," Bryan Reynolds said. "So, you know, that's tough. But, you know, it was good this year to see some of the young guys come up and have success."
There were positives. Cruz got better. Keller finally became someone who could take the ball every five days and give your team a chance to win. Suwinski was streaky, but put together a good rookie season. Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz showed they could be big parts of that rotation moving forward. I could go on.
It's one thing to accept that the team is green, but then there are the holes. Let's single out one position here: First base. It is, in this reporter's opinion, the weakest point of a 100-loss team.
The players FanGraphs considers primary first basemen for the Pirates hit a combined .196 with a .569 OPS and -3 fWAR. In the history of the National League, only two teams had less WAR from first base (the 2013 Brewers and 1947 Phillies). In the live-ball era (since 1920), that OPS is the sixth-lowest of all teams.
They threw wild cards at the position, none of which paid off. Yoshi Tsutsugo, Yu Chang, Josh VanMeter, Zack Colins, Kevin Padlo, Michael Chavis. Collins was a Hail Mary waiver claim and Padlo was just depth who passed through, so it's hard to single them out. Chavis was the only one who at least had moments this year. The others were whiffs and put the team in a huge hole, getting historically bad production from the position that is supposed to provide pop. Instead, the position devolved into Castillo making two emergency starts at the end of the season at first to get across the finish line. He made an error each game.
But of those six players who are considered first basemen, none of them claim through the farm system. They were all cast offs. A signal that the organization has not produced major-league quality depth and has not invested significant money to fix that hole. Instead, it became a turnstile, like so many other positions. Catcher. Second base. Corner outfield. Sometimes there were intriguing rookies. Other times it was a waiver claim just taking reps away from someone who could be part of that future.
The Pirates used a franchise record sixty-eight players this season, one off the major-league record set by the 2021 Cubs. How many of those players can you name? That's not a theoretical question. I made a quiz. Test your memory. See if you can remember every Beau Sulser. Here's a hint: Anthony Alford was on this team.
"When you get to a certain point when there's not so many things moving around and stuff like that, guys get used to hitting in front of a certain guy, hitting behind a certain guy, you have a set rotation, set guys coming in certain innings [it helps you win]," Ke'Bryan Hayes said. "Early in the year, we had Duane [Underwood Jr.] as a middle relief guy, long relief, and we had Crowe coming in the seventh or eighth, and you always knew if we had a lead with [David] Bednar coming in the ninth, it was a done deal. I think once we get to that point where we aren't moving so many guys around and stuff like that and guys are getting more familiar with who they're with and who they're around, that's how you get that tight mould and start playing better."
That's Hayes, the guy who played this whole year with a bad back not because the team was built to win, but because he wanted to help the team try to win. The Hayes who was willing to be the first guy through the wall and sign away the prime of his career this year not just because he wanted a payday, but because he wants to win here.
He's not the only one.
"That's all I care about, winning," Crowe said. "I know we haven't been able to do that last year or this year, but I do think we're on the right path to that, and when the collective group really buys into, 'who gives a s--- what happens on the field other than winning,' that's when we're going to make that turn, and I feel like it's coming. It's coming very soon."
Another season like this is wasting not only another year of Hayes' contract -- and hell, maybe his body but also Reynolds'. And Contreras. And Cruz. And Ortiz. And this wave of prospects who could come up at any given time in 2023, including Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, if we want to name the ones who have appeared on top 100 lists. And hopefully that is truly any given time, not just after opening day or what is believed to be the super-two cutoff.
This team lost 100 games. If they are supposed to legitimately compete in 2024, like what has been laid out internally, they can't get there by only making a giant leap from '23 to '24. They need to take a big step next year, first. To do that, it's going to take investment, both in current dollars and potentially higher salaries six or seven years from now with the prospects. They weren't willing to do that this year, and it's partially why they finished near the bottom of the league once again.

EDDIE PROVIDENT / DKPS
The ballpark, one last time this year.
• One last gamer, for the road.
Johan Oviedo's final start of the year was shaky, exiting after his planned four innings with three runs and five hits on his ledger. His afternoon started shaky, allowing two runs in the first four batters, but he settled in from there, even if his old team was still able to catch up to his fastball.
Still, this first month as a starter with the Pirates has left a positive impression with the coaching staff, and he thinks he can build on it.
"I think we showed a little bit of what we can do in this month and September," Oviedo said. "So everyone is really excited and really happy for next year. Just try to put in all the work that I can to add a little bit more and try and do everything I can so we can win more games next year. But for sure really happy and I can't wait for next year."
• A four run rally in the fourth, highlighted by an RBI double by Diego Castillo, was enough offense for the Pirates to pull away in this one. Miguel Andújar concluded his cup of coffee with his new club with a three-hit performance including a leadoff triple in that fourth inning.
"He swung the bat extremely well," Shelton said. "He’s aggressive. The thing that impressed me the most about Miguel, one of the most impressive at-bats against Miguel, was the other night in the walk-off win, when Cruz walked. He had a tough at-bat. It’s not just a guy who’s up there free-swinging, controlling the zone. Really positive. We’re extremely left-handed, so that’s a nice add-in mix."
• That's a career for Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. (Well, as far as the back of the baseball is concerned. They still have a postseason to play.) Molina appeared as a pinch-hitter in the seventh inning and lined out to second, while Pujols did not appear in the game.
Happy trails to two genuine Pirate killers.
• And happy trails to Tim DeBacco. The long-time PNC Park PA announcer -- the voice of the stadium, really -- is hanging up the microphone after serving in a reduced role this season.
• Final injury update from director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk: Max Kranick (Tommy John) will be the only pitcher on a throwing program this winter. Everyone else should be ready for spring training. That includes Roberto Pérez, who will be cleared for all baseball activities Nov. 4, which is about when the offseason will officially begin.
As for Hayes' back, the Pirates were aware that he has been dealing with back issues for most of the season, and had been monitoring him daily to make sure.
"One of the places that Ke’s really grown this year is in his pre-hab and recovery," Shelton said. "What I mean by that is being a major league player, the training room is not just for injuries but the prevention of injuries – and the weight room also. I think we’ve seen guys in the game today get really good at that before games and really good at recovery after games. Ke’ took a major step in that regard this year."
• With the win, the Pirates will finish in fourth place in the National League Central by virtue of their tiebreaker over the Reds. It snaps a streak of three straight seasons in last place. Additionally, since they had a worse record than the Reds last season, they get the better positioning in the draft. As a result, they will be one of three teams, along with the Nationals and Athletics, who have the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft: 16.5%.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
• Scoreboard
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE INJURIES
• 10-day injured list: 1B Zack Collins (non-COVID illness)
• 15-day injured list: RHP Wil Crowe (right forearm inflammation) LHP Eric Stout (low back discomfort)
• 60-day injured list: Yerry De Los Santos (lat), OF Canaan Smith-Njigba (wrist), RHP Colin Holderman (right shoulder), RHP Blake Cederlind (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow), C Roberto Pérez (hamstring)
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Kevin Newman, SS
2. Rodolfo Castro, 2B
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
4. Miguel Andújar, LF
5. Oneil Cruz, DH
6. Diego Castillo, 1B
7. Jack Suwinski, RF
8. Jason Delay, C
9. Ji Hwan Bae, CF
And for Oliver Marmol's Cardinals:
1. Lars Nootbaar, DH
2. Tommy Edman, SS
3. Nolan Arenado, 3B
4. Corey Dickerson, LF
5. Juan Yepez, 1B
6. Alec Burleson, RF
7. Dylan Carlson, CF
8. Andrew Kinzer, C
9. Paul DeJong, SS
THE SCHEDULE
That's a wrap, folks. I want to give a very genuine thank you for reading, listening and commenting on live files and stories all season long. On to the offseason.
THE CONTENT
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