The 2022 minor-league season is in the books, and with the exception of the Arizona Fall League and winter leagues, it means we won't see many prospects until they return to Bradenton in February 2023.
So with a full set of information to work with, lets close the year with an expanded top prospect list, this time the top 20 in the organization.
Unlike most of the year where we polled the writers on staff to come up with weekly top 10s, this is my personal top 20 list, based off of conversations I have had throughout the season with scouts, analysts, people in the organization, players and coaches, as well as my personal opinions from getting to watch most of these players in person or at least via stream. A player qualifies as a prospect as long as they still have their rookie status in tact, so there are a couple players on this list who have already made their Pirate debuts.
With that out of the way, let's look at the top 20.
1. HENRY DAVIS, C, ALTOONA
.264/.380/.472, 10 HR, 42 RBI over 255 PA for Low-A Bradenton, High-A Greensboro and AA Altoona
Davis started as No. 1 on our lists this year, and while there is a very good case for Termarr Johnson to be the new headliner of the system, I'm sticking with the 2021 first overall draft pick for now. A freak hit-by-pitch on his wrist in his final game in Greensboro lingered and cost him a good chunk of this season, but he's confident that he can make up for lost time in the Arizona Fall League and potentially winter ball to still get a full season's worth of development. He bounced around the diamond a little bit towards the end of the season, but catcher is still the first priority. If he sticks there, he has the potential to be one of the greatest hitting catcher's in the franchise's history.
2. TERMARR JOHNSON, SS, BRADENTON
.275/.396/.450, 1 HR, 6 RBI over 53 PA for Low-A Bradenton
The Pirates' first-round pick this year got to make the leap to affiliated games at just 18 years old and more than held his own, showing a good feel for the zone with some hard contact in his couple weeks with the Marauders. Touted as the top hitter in this year's draft class, Johnson has the tools to be one of the top hitting middle infielders throughout his rise to the majors. That rise could also be a bit quicker than we've seen from other Pirate prospects, assuming of course he continues to show he can handle the challenge.
3. ENDY RODRIGUEZ, C, INDIANAPOLIS
.323/.407/.590, 25 HR, 95 RBI over 531 PA for A+ Greensboro, AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis
Our minor-league hitter of the year (there really was no other choice), Rodriguez thrived this season, even as he was given stiffer competition over the course of the season. You don't often see a switch-hitter with a swing as smooth on both sides of the plate, and he's able to both drive and elevate the ball, which is why he was able to rack up 39 doubles on top of his 25 home runs. He bounced around the diamond in Greensboro -- playing catcher, second base, first base and left field -- but mostly settled in as a catcher once he reached Altoona. The question is how will he and Davis split time moving forward, because the organization does view both of them as catchers.
He needs to be added to the roster this winter (he will be) and will make his debut at some point in 2023.
4. QUINN PRIESTER, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS
5-5, 3.29 ERA, 89 K, 30 BB over 90 1/3 IP for Low-A Bradenton, High-A Greensboro, AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis
Our minor-league pitcher of the year, Priester was shelved early with an oblique injury, which gave him an opportunity to clean up some things with his motion. He also reemphasized having a true five pitch mix, which helped him make a seamless jump to the upper levels of the farm system. The book on Priester is still that scouts love him and analysts are more skeptical, but he is on a major-league starter trajectory. Depending on if you buy into the analytics or intangibles, it's either a front-end of the rotation starter or a back-end.
Priester is getting more competitive innings this year in the Arizona Fall League.
5. MIKE BURROWS, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS
5-6, 4.01 ERA, 111 K, 31 BB over 94 1/3 IP for AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis
It might be an oversimplification, but you can almost divide Burrows' season into two halves: His time in Altoona and his time Indianapolis. With the Curve, he was one of the best pitchers in the Eastern League, using a true three pitch mix that featured a rapidly improving changeup. When he was promoted to Indianapolis, he was roughed around a bit, partially due to the jump in competition and some right shoulder crankiness. He still showed some positive signs there, which is why Baseball America finally gave him a spot towards the end of their top 100 prospect list. For someone who had to answer the question these last two years of if he was a starter or a reliever, he's shown pretty definitively that it's the former.
Burrows needs to be added to the roster this winter, which is a virtual guarantee. Expect to see him in Pittsburgh next year.
6. NICK GONZALES, 2B, ALTOONA
.263/.383/.429, 7 HR, 33 RBI over 316 PA for AA Altoona
If you factor in that Gonzales missed a good chunk of this season due to plantar fasciitis, his overall season stats look impressive for a second baseman. There's one black cloud hanging over it though, and that's a 28.5% strikeout rate. I was told at different points of the season that it was either fastballs or breaking pitches that were causing the whiffs, which even dates back to 2021 as well. For a hit-first player, a near 30% strikeout rate proposes a serious road block for a hitter. (I did a Mound Visit on the subject back in February.) The ball does fly off the bat when he does make contact. He just needs to get the bat to the ball more consistently.
Gonzales is getting extra reps in the Arizona Fall League. I had it suggested to me back when he was drafted that Gonzales could probably also play the outfield if necessary, which could be the case depending on how Rodolfo Castro handles the position in the majors.
7. LIOVER PEGUERO, SS, ALTOONA
.259/.305/.387, 10 HR, 58 RBI over 521 PA for AA Altoona
The jump to AA is a big one, and Peguero even made an even larger jump after a COVID-19 scare cleared a spot for him in the majors for a weekend in June. Peguero flashes five tools, but it didn't always show up in 2022. 23 errors at shortstop is a bit concerning too. He still finished the year on top 100 lists and will probably be there preseason next year too. But he's due to take a step forward with his game now that he's on the cusp of the majors.
8. ANTHONY SOLOMETO, LHP, BRADENTON
5-1, 2.64 ERA, 51 K, 19 BB over 51 1/3 innings for Low-A Bradenton
My way-too-early 2023 prediction is that Solometo cracks top 100 lists by the end of next season. He had the stuff, but he also shared with me his behind the scenes work that helped him make some needed adjustments over the course of his first full season in pro ball, especially when it comes to controlling the running game. He was the first of 2021's high school picks to make the jump to the Marauders because he was viewed as a little more advanced. That could continue in just journey through the farm system.
9. BUBBA CHANDLER, RHP/DH, BRADENTON
1-1, 2.61 ERA, 60 K, 28 BB over 41 1/3 innings for Complex League and Low-A Bradenton; .196/.331/.382, 4 HR, 17 RBI over 124 PA
There's always a risk when you take a raw high schooler early in the draft that they can rely on just talent to get by in pro ball. Chandler can out-talent and out-stuff most of his competition this year, but he also showed good feel on the mound, which is why he was able to rack up strikeouts. He barely got to hit down the homestretch of the season, and after some middling results as a hitter, it's fair to wonder how long the Pirates will continue that experiment. He's got plenty of potential as a pitcher alone, though that's not enough reason to give up the bat.
10. LUIS ORTIZ, RHP, PIRATES
0-2, 4.50 ERA, 17 K, 10 BB over 16 IP for Pirates
Ortiz didn't advance past Low-A Bradenton in 2021. He finished 2022 in the majors. The fastest riser of any prospect this season, Ortiz turned heads in his brief major-league cameo, flashing consistent upper-90s heat and a high-spin slider as a starter, and hitters simply could not catch up to it (.114 BA against his sinker, .174 against his slider). He was also prone to walks and the big inning while in the minors, which is why his 4.64 ERA for Altoona wasn't that impressive.
But you can't scout a stat line with this 23-year-old fireballer. I heard as much buzz about him as any pitcher in Altoona this year, which was a hotbed of pitching talent. He needs to continue to develop his changeup to become a proper starter. If he does, he can be a front-half of the rotation starter.
11. JI HWAN BAE, UTL, PIRATES
.333/.407/.424, 0 HR, 6 RBI over 37 PA for Pirates
After tearing up AAA Indianapolis for most of the year, Bae finally got a September call up late in the season and impressed, showing how he can use his speed to impact the game on the basepaths with a knack for getting on first. He profiles as a traditional leadoff man, though Derek Shelton often penciled him in at No. 9, a trick American League managers occasionally use to give themselves effectively two leadoff hitters once the lineup card turns over.
A middle infielder by trade, Bae's versatility and willingness to play the outfield will help him get into the lineup more. If I was to take an educated guess, I would imagine he would have more playing opportunities there in 2023.
12. THOMAS HARRINGTON, RHP, COMPLEX LEAGUE
Did not appear in a game
Harrington was the Pirates' Competitive Balance Round A pick in this year's draft, essentially making him another first-round pick. The Pirates haven't shied away from selecting pitchers who didn't have much, or any, high school pitching experience (Chandler, Carmen Mlodzinski, Nick Garcia, Jack Hartman), and Harrington falls into this camp. A walk-on at Campbell University, there is some room for more development, especially since there's a good foundation to work with. His sinker can touch the mid-90s and he has a very efficient motion to the plate. He has the potential to be a major-league starter.
13. JARED JONES, RHP, GREENSBORO
5-7, 4.62 ERA, 142 strikeouts, 51 BB over 122 2/3 innings for A+ Greensboro
I'll start by saying that Greensboro is one of the most hitter-friendly venues to hit in this side of the Mississippi River, so I wouldn't put too much stock into a less than flattering ERA for now. With that said, for someone who was touted as a stuff pitcher, I got reports this year that the stuff was getting less movement than it did in 2021. Again, not a red flag quite yet when you're 20 years old, but there might be a little sophomore slump at play here. I think he's the pitcher to watch in Altoona next year. He has the tools to be a major-league pitcher, flashing upper-90s fastballs and two high spin breaking balls. If he does that consistently, he's a starter, and probably a good one. If he doesn't, the bullpen may need to be considered.
14. MALCOM NUNEZ, 1B, ALTOONA
.262/.367/.466, 23 HR, 88 RBI over 493 PA for AA Altoona and Springfield (STL) and AAA Indianapolis
Nunez is a big, strong 21-year-old slugger who finally started to maximize his slug this year by focusing on getting the ball in the air. The headlining prospect the Pirates acquired at this deadline, Nunez needs to be added to the roster this winter, and I would be surprised if they didn't. He has the look of a major-league player, though it's not quite clear what his ceiling could be. Is he a quad-A guy, a right-handed platoon, a starting first baseman? Right now, I would say he's the only internal option for that final role, unless Rodriguez and Davis split time between catcher and first base. I can see why the Pirates wanted to sign him as an international free agent, and why they made the second effort to get him this year.
15. COLIN HOLDERMAN, RHP, PIRATES
5-0, 3.81 ERA, 24 K, 14 BB over 28 1/3 innings for Mets and Pirates
Holderman didn't throw quite enough innings to shed his rookie label this year because of some right shoulder soreness, so he still qualifies for this list.
After a breakout spring with the Mets, Holderman bounced up and down between the majors and minors for them before being traded in July for Daniel Vogelbach. He pumps 96 mph sinker and gets above average break on his slider, giving him a couple of quality pitches to work with, as well as a backlog of other offerings (cutter, four-seamer, changeup) from his starter days that he'll occasionally dust off. He has the makings of a leverage reliever, and we should expect to see a lot of him out of the Pirates' bullpen in 2023.
16. MATT FRAIZER, OF, ALTOONA
.219/.284/.333, 6 HR, 44 RBI over 480 PA for AA Altoona
The team's minor-league player of the year in 2021, Fraizer just never got going in 2022. Curve hitting coach Jon Nunnally had faith in him all year, and told me late in the season that Fraizer has bounced back from a bad season before (2019). Plenty of good hitters stumble in their first full year in AA (look at Andrew McCutchen, for example), and he showed in 2021 that he can hit this level. But this level can sort out the prospects from the pretenders. I don't think Fraizer is a pretender, but going into spring training, he was my clear-cut best outfield prospect in the system. Now he's in a clump of outfielders looking to emerge.
17. MATT GORSKI, OF, INDIANAPOLIS
.280/.358/.598, 24 HR, 66 RBI over 325 PA for A+ Greensboro, AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis
Gorski is sandwiched between two outfielders who saw their stock tumble this year, perhaps a bit ironic since he took one of the largest leaps forward of any prospect in the system. After surprisingly being left in Greensboro to start the year rather than advance to Altoona with his 2021 teammates, he tore up High-A pitching for a couple months before going to Altoona and doing the same. He was near the top of the professional home run leaderboards before a quad injury sidelined him for a good chunk of the season in June. He also picked up 20 stolen bases on 23 attempts and can play all three outfield positions. He cut down on some movement in his swing, and I had it suggested that he should probably cut out some more if he wants to catch up to upprer-90s heat.
He'll turn 25 this December, so this is a pivotal winter for him. Do the Pirates add him to a crowded outfield mix or expose him to the Rule 5 draft? He's playing in the Fall League.
18. LONNIE WHITE JR., OF, COMPLEX LEAGUE
.286/.286/.857, 1 HR, 3 RBI over 7 PA for Complex League
White was nagged by injuries all year, ranging from his lower body to his shoulder. The Pirates chalked that up to him acclimating to a full baseball schedule rather than splitting time between baseball and football, and a year full of injuries doesn't necessarily help. He has the raw talent -- perhaps most aptly seen by him recording a homer and double in his two games played -- but he needs to show his body can handle a full season of baseball.
19. JARED TRIOLO, 3B/UTL, ALTOONA
.282/.376/.419, 9 HR, 39 RBI over 495 PA for AA Altoona
Triolo is a minor-league Gold Glove winner at third base, but since the Pirates already have a potential future Gold Glover at the hot corner, Triolo started to bounce around the diamond more in 2022. The experiment was limited to shortstop and center field this year, but don't rule out him bouncing around to other positions. I had an analyst report that they weren't impressed Triolo's batted ball peripherals or bat speed, but he's posted above-average offensive numbers at every stop in the minors and has swiped 49 bags on 60 attempts (81.7%) over the last two years. He's a very popular guy in the clubhouse (teammates have custom-made "Tri-Hugger" shirts) and is a good complementary player to some of the heavy hitting prospects that spent time in Altoona this year. He is Rule 5 eligible this winter, so the Pirates will need to add him to the roster or risk losing him.
20. KYLE NICOLAS, RHP, ALTOONA
2-4, 3.97 ERA, 101 K, 47 BB over 90 1/3 IP for AA Altoona
The final spot was a tough one to hammer down. Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Swaggerty both got cups of coffee in the majors, but their futures with the organization could be murky. Michael Kennedy and Hunter Barco are a couple of lefties selected in the early rounds of this year's draft that could become major-league starters. There are a handful of relievers who could make the jump to Pittsburgh next year, like Tahnaj Thomas, J.C. Flowers and Tyler Samaniego. There are some options here.
Ultimately, I went with Nicolas because he more or less fell in line with the report I got on him at the time of the Jacob Stallings trade: He could be a backend of the rotation starter or a reliever. He has velo and spin, and there is definitely some swing and miss there. He struck out 25.9% of his batters faced this year, but also walked 12.1%. If he cuts down on the walks, he's a starter. If not, the bullpen may be the way to go.
