Although they suffered a disappointing 3-2 overtime loss to the Canadiens in Montreal Monday night, the Penguins have secured five of six possible standings points through their first three games to start the season.
The Penguins' two victories came against a Coyotes roster that barely passes as an NHL team and a Lightning team playing on the second night of a back-to-back, but the standings don't care how you got your points, just how many.
Only three teams across the league boast a better goal differential than the Penguins' +7. No team across the league has a higher share of 5-on-5 goals (82.1%) or 5-on-5 expected goals (70.2%).
Eight skaters on the Penguins are averaging a point per game or more, and everyone except all three members of the fourth line and Jan Rutta have recorded a point.
With all of that in mind, let's dig into some early impressions on the season, what's sustainable, what isn't, and where things might go from here.
CAN THE OFFENSIVE GENERATION HOLD UP?
To this point, no team is doing a better job of creating quality offense than the Penguins, and at 5-on-5 it isn't particularly close. The 4.57 expected goals per hour the Penguins are generating at 5-on-5 is significantly higher than the 3.79 expected goals per hour the Devils are generating, who currently rank second in that metric, according to Evolving Hockey.
Thanks to HockeyViz, we can see exactly where and how frequently the Penguins are creating chances (The darker the red, the more attempts from that area relative to league-average, the darker the blue, the fewer attempts from that area relative to league-average):
HockeyViz.com
Essentially, the Penguins are creating looks at will from the net-front and heart of the slot, where the vast majority of goals are scored. The only areas the Penguins aren't shooting the puck all that much are the areas in which it's tough to score from.
It obviously helps to have played the Coyotes, but the Penguins actually generated over an entire expected goal more against the Lightning in Game 2 than they did against the Coyotes in the opener. That, more than anything, is a good sign that this team has the makings of being a high-end offensive team moving forward, even if they won't be 63% better than the average of the league for the remainder.
CROSBY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN
As great as he's been for, well, ever, it still wouldn't come as a surprise if Sidney Crosby started to see the tiniest decline in his offensive capabilities as he enters his age 35 season, but so far he's shown his impact will be just as strong -- if not stronger -- than it was a season ago.
Coming out of the gates, Crosby notched back-to-back three-point performances to tie him for the NHL lead in points before he was held without a point in Montreal. Crosby earned the NHL's First Star of the week for his ageless start.
PENGUINS
It's simply business as usual for the captain, and yet it's impossible to do anything but marvel at what's unfolding. This isn't a case of a good player remaining serviceable into the end of their career, this is an all-time great remaining one of the very best in the league.
I won't project an MVP or scoring title for Crosby this season -- those days are likely gone -- but he will absolutely be among the league leaders in points by the end of the season, so long as he stays healthy. He also appears especially dialed in defensively, as he has already made several great plays in his own zone to spring the Penguins the other way through three games.
MALKIN TAKING ASSERTIVE APPROACH
Evgeni Malkin is making anyone who uttered the name Vincent Trocheck as his potential replacement this offseason look foolish. The 36-year-old has three goals in three games, two of which came in his dominant showing in Montreal, to go along with an assist.
This is the healthiest Malkin has been in quite some time and it could not be more apparent. His skating, which was at least somewhat of a worry coming into this season, looks phenomenal. He's been engaged in all areas of the ice, and has largely taken care of the puck when it's on his stick. And the puck has been on his stick a lot.
Malkin currently leads the Penguins in shots on goal (17), shot attempts (26) and individual expected goals (2.45), the final figure being good enough for fifth place among all NHL skaters.
His individual triumphs aren't the only things to be excited about, either. With him on the ice at 5-on-5, the Penguins have not been scored on and have controlled a whopping 76.5% of the expected goals, good for third on the team and behind only his linemates, Bryan Rust and Jason Zucker.
Mike Sullivan and Ron Hextall both mentioned during training camp how hungry Malkin is. That couldn't be more clear right now.
ZUCKER REDEMPTION TOUR
Speaking of Zucker, he's playing exactly the way many had hoped he would when he was acquired from the Wild during the 2019-20 season. I know, I know, it's only three games and there's a lot of time left for him to wind up on injured reserve, but let's not live on our fears.
Zucker has a goal and two assists in three games and has been doing much of the dirty work, along with Rust, to allow Malkin to go out there and command the puck and do his thing. The Penguins' second line has been one of the best in hockey so far. Even if that doesn't hold up forever, I think the trio has done enough already to solidify the Penguins as having one of the better top-sixes around the league.
I'm not one to bring up intangibles often, but it's hard not to mention just how much Zucker truly cares about this team and winning. Just take a look at his reaction every time the Penguins score with him out on the ice. That's got to count for something in the room, especially now that his performance is backing him up.
HEINEN EVEN BETTER THAN LAST SEASON?
I really wasn't sure if Danton Heinen would be able to improve upon his 2021-22 season in which he was one of the Penguins' most efficient 5-on-5 goal-scorers while providing great two-way impacts, but he's currently playing with a confidence that hasn't been seen in his time with the Penguins.
That effort ... are you kidding me?
Heinen has that goal in addition to two assists through three games, and he's been doing a lot of the leg work on his line with Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen. The thing about Heinen is that he always seems to find a way to make safe plays that still have the potential for something more. He hardly -- if ever -- throws the puck away and is adept at extending plays that would otherwise result in a change of possession.
His overall production will likely be limited by playing third-line minutes and getting minimal power-play time, but his $1 million cap hit is legitimately one of the best bargains in the NHL.
CARTER'S USAGE NOT CHANGING?
After Jeff Carter's monumental drop-off in the second half of last season, it seemed like a no-brainer to find an avenue to slightly reduce his minutes, but here we are with Carter continuing to get time on the second power-play unit and continuing to see regular action on the penalty kill. Teddy Blueger being out of the lineup doesn't help the second part, as that would leave Ryan Poehling as the only center option for the kill, but Carter is currently averaging more time on the kill this season than he did last season.
Carter was also out there in overtime for the Canadiens' 4-on-3 power-play that led to the game-winner. Here he is tracking his man with his stick in the passing lane:
And here he is getting out of the way of the pass to the back door for the tap-in:
Outside of this sequence, I don't think Carter has played poorly at all. Far from it, really, as he also has a goal and two assists thus far. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned that we aren't heading down the same path as last season with the 37-year-old, though, and this will be one of the more important things to keep tabs on as we get further into the season.
DUMOULIN HOT AND COLD AS EVER
During the preseason I predicted that most nights Brian Dumoulin would either be sturdy, as he was the first two games, or a liability on the top pairing, as he was Monday in Montreal.
The biggest reason Dumoulin's impact has declined in recent year is because of his diminishing skating ability. His pivots and transitions are a lot clunkier than they used to be, and this becomes a problem when defending the rush. His speed and quickness aren't what they once were, either. Instead of using his long legs to create separation from checkers coming out of his own zone, Dumoulin is now getting swarmed more frequently and is forced to make less-than-ideal plays with the puck.
I hesitate to say Kris Letang masked some of these issues through the first two games, but it was clear on Monday night that the wheels are going to completely fall off for the top pairing whenever Letang has an off night.
WHAT IS IT THAT MCGINN REALLY BRINGS?
This isn't me picking on a depth forward solely for not contributing offensively, but what exactly does Brock McGinn do on a nightly basis that warrants his $2.75 million cap hit? McGinn has not registered a point through three games, and he has only attempted two shots, one of which made its way on goal. Both marks, unsurprisingly, are last on the team.
Yeah, he kills penalties. That's great. There's only about a gazillion other players who can do the same thing for much cheaper. And it's not like he's some defensive stalwart at evens. Last season he graded out slightly above-average in terms of his isolated impact toward limiting quality chances against.
I believe McGinn has a bit of value with his above-average finishing ability, but for that to matter he's going to have to shoot the puck a whole heck of a lot more than he is right now.
