Heading into their much-needed bye week, the Steelers have just two wins and have lost six games. They are in last place in the AFC North. More troubling, the Steelers have been outscored by 77 points this year. That is the worst point differential in the NFL. And by a wide margin. Detroit already had their bye, but their minus-52-point differential is second worst, and no other team is at -40 or worse currently.
Including their playoff loss last year in Kansas City, the Steelers are 2-9 in their last 11 road games. The Steelers offense averages just 4.7 yards per play.
That is dead last in the league. The defense gives up 5.9 yards every time the opponent snaps the football. Only the Texans, Falcons, and Lions are worse. So, essentially, the Steelers go backwards by 1.2 yards every time the ball is snapped in one of their games this year.
In terms of EPA (Expected Points Added), the Steelers' offense comes in at 28th and the defense 27th. If you prefer Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), another great indicating metric, the Steelers offense is 25th, and the defense is 22nd.
The Steelers defense can blame the T.J. Watt injury for much of their troubles. The best player on this team has played just 66 of a possible 557 defensive snaps this season. The offense doesn’t have that excuse at their disposal, however. The Steelers top five skill position players through the bye, Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and even Chase Claypool, have been available for every game this year minus one missed by Freiermuth. Not only have the starting five offensive linemen been available for every game this year, but collectively, they have been absent for only five snaps in 2022, all missed by Mason Cole.
It has been a very disappointing season by any measure or metric. But the Steelers have also played the NFL’s most difficult schedule through eight weeks of play.
Let’s get back to DVOA. The Steelers got blown out by the top team (Buffalo) and the second-best team (Philadelphia) in DVOA on the road. DVOA has a big gap between the Bills, Eagles, and the rest of the league. Buffalo and Philadelphia have won their seven home games by an average score of 31.4 to 15.4. That that’s with wins over the Titans, Vikings, and Cowboys. Tennessee, Minnesota, and Dallas currently have a combined record of 18-5 including their losses in Buffalo and Philadelphia. Kansas City should have something to say about it, but the Bills and Eagles look destined to be squaring off in the Super Bowl.
The Steelers have also faced Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Miami, and the Jets -- all of which are ranked in the Top 11 in DVOA. The “weakest” teams that the Steelers have played are the Patriots and Browns, which come in at 14th and 18th, respectively, in DVOA. The Steelers have not had the luxury of playing against any of the 14 worst teams in the league thus far.
In terms of the quarterbacks faced by the Steelers, they have faced five ranked in the top nine in EPA. They’ve gone against five in the top eight offenses overall in EPA and four of the top eight in DVOA. Four of the NFL’s five best passing offenses overall in EPA, as well as two of the top three rushing attacks, have been on the Steelers past schedule this year. The Steelers have also faced six of the top nine pass catchers in yards produced per game.
The slate of defenses the Steelers have had to face is even more challenging. Amongst the defenses ranked in the top nine in EPA and DVOA, the Steelers have played six of those nine. Per EPA, the Steelers struggling passing game has also faced six of the best nine pass defenses.
The Steelers' opponents have had the luxury of having played Pittsburgh, but still, those eight teams have a combined record of 37-25. And their combined point differential is an amazing plus-218.
This isn’t an excuse. Like every team, the Steelers have gotten some breaks this year. And this is a tough and unforgiving league. No one cares what challenges you faced. They only care about results. The feeling around this team would be markedly different had they pulled out a winnable game against the Patriots, Jets, or Dolphins. Right or wrong, a 3-5 record has a much different feel than sitting at 2-6 at Halloween.
But, without question, the results haven’t been adequate for Mike Tomlin’s team at basically the midpoint of the 2022 season.
Again, that is undeniable.
It is probably too late for this team to be a factor in the NFL in 2022 or to have any chance at the postseason in a loaded AFC. But the road ahead is much less daunting, and the second half of the season should be far more fruitful than what we have seen thus far.
If that isn’t the case, and this team doesn’t take noticeable steps forward to finish out the year, there should be massive criticism thrown its way.
Watt will be back very soon. The Steelers should collectively be very healthy when they host the Saints in Week 10. Kenny Pickett has five games of experience under his belt now and 165 pass attempts -- mostly against the league’s toughest defenses in the most difficult of circumstances. The first-round quarterback should have a much better feel of what the NFL is all about after taking a step back this week, regrouping, and preparing for the Steelers' final nine games.
And how about those nine games?
The NFL fluctuates very quickly, so predicting what the Steelers will be facing is always subject to change. Some of these future opponents will get hit hard by injuries. Some will be playing better or worse when they square off than they are now. But, without question, the second half of the season is much more favorable than what the Steelers have faced thus far.
In terms of DVOA, the Steelers face two of the five teams that rank below them in Indianapolis and Carolina, which are currently being led by Sam Ehlinger and PJ Walker, respectively.
The remaining divisional games should be difficult. After the Ravens' win on Thursday night and the Browns Monday night victory over Cincinnati, here is where the rest of the North stands:
Baltimore, which still plays the Steelers twice, is fourth in DVOA. The Bengals are seventh, and Cleveland is 18th.
But the Browns should have DeShaun Watson behind center for the final game of the season. That game, however, also might not matter for either team at that point. Cincinnati probably won’t have Ja’Marr Chase back in the lineup by Week 11, and we saw how much he was missed against the Browns. With the great familiarity that Tomlin and Co. have with their divisional foes, that does level the playing field to some degree for those upcoming four contests. Tomlin has a four-game winning streak against the Ravens and coach John Harbaugh, and the Steelers already beat the Bengals to open the season.
That leaves the Saints, Falcons, and Raiders as the remaining Steelers opponents. New Orleans is 20th in DVOA but will be coming off a Monday night game against the Ravens before traveling to Pittsburgh to play a rested Steelers team on a short week. The Falcons and Raiders are 21st and 26th, respectively, in DVOA.
After going against the most difficult schedule thus far, the Steelers are poised to play the 21st most difficult schedule going forward per DVOA.
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Will they be able to take advantage of what is ahead? We shall see, but if they don’t and fail to provide a great deal of promise for 2023 and beyond, Steelers fans should be rightfully concerned. No more excuses.