With the 2022 regular in the books and the offseason approaching, this is the fifth installment in a six-part series taking a look at the Pirates' roster and where they need to focus as they prepare for the 2023 season.
You can't win without pitching, and the 2022 team stats were still less than flattering. However, there are some bright spots in both the majors and the minors, and they could take a step forward next season.
PLAYERS ON THE ROSTER
JT Brubaker, Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, Max Kranick, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, Zach Thompson, Bryse Wilson, Miguel Yajure
FREE AGENTS
N/A
SEASON STATS
Team Rotation: 21-62, 4.61 ERA, 19.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 7.7 fWAR
Notable Individual Performers: Mitch Keller 5-12, 3.91 ERA, 2 rWAR; Roansy Contreras 5-5, 3.79 ERA, 1.2 rWAR; José Quintana 3-5, 3.50 ERA, 2 rWAR; JT Brubaker 3-12, 4.69 ERA, 0.2 rWAR; Zach Thompson 3-10, 5.18 ERA, -0.3 rWAR
SEASON AT A GLANCE
The good news is the rotation's ERA dropped nearly a run from 2021 (5.53) to 2022 (4.61). The bad news is the Pirates' rotation still had the seventh-worst ERA in the league.
That doesn't tell the whole story though. The Pirates entered this year with nothing but question marks in the rotation, and through some experimentation and development, they had a couple pitchers take a big step forward in 2022.
Perhaps no pitcher took a bigger step than Mitch Keller. After a disappointing 2021 season, Keller's offseason workouts went viral, showing how he was hitting upper-90s on his fastball again. That gave him renewed confidence, but it didn't translate into improved results. That didn't come until he added a sinker and adopted a sweeping slider midseason. With those new tools, he finally enjoyed a breakout second half of the season, eventually being named the team's pitcher of the year.
José Quintana was brought in a one-year prove it deal in a last shot as a starter and he clicked. He was predictably traded at the deadline, but the Pirates picked up Johan Oviedo from the Cardinals, who looks like a contender for a rotation spot next year. Roansy Contreras made the jump from top 100 prospect to a solid rookie, even if there was a planned midseason break to limit his innings. JT Brubaker may not have lived up to his opening day starter billing, but he pitched better than his final results would indicate because he wore a couple bad outings.
The backend of the rotation was always in flux, as Zach Thompson and Bryse Wilson struggled and Miguel Yajure could not claim a rotation spot. They showed some occasional bright spots in the hybrid pitcher program the Pirates deployed at the beginning of the season, but they eventually returned to a traditional five-man rotation by midseason.
PROSPECTS ON THE RADAR
Pirate fans got a taste of what Luis Ortiz can bring during his September call up. The 23-year-old right-hander was the fastest riser in the Pirates' system this year, going from Class Low-A Bradenton at the end of 2021 to the majors to end this season. He's still raw and needs to develop a proper third pitch, but high-90s velocity that holds and a sharp breaking ball gives him the tools to be an impact pitcher.
Mike Burrows and Quinn Priester are both top 100 prospects, with the former getting his first nod late in the season. Burrows will need to be added to the 40 man roster this winter, and both are good candidates for a 2023 midseason promotion. Burrows tore up Class AA Altoona before hitting a bit of a bump in AAA Indianapolis, partially to the jump and quality and partially due to a shoulder bug. Despite that, he still turned a very strong season, as did Priester, who worked with a true five-pitch mix.
The only other prospect who appears to be a Rule 5 risk is Cody Bolton, who worked as a starter, a reliever and a hybrid at different points this season. Armed with his old slider, he posted a 3.09 ERA over 75 2/3 innings with Indianapolis, though with a less than flattering 12.4% walk rate. He's right on that edge of a starter or a reliever, and his roster decision may come down to what the Pirates' plans are to add outside pitching winter. The only other Rule 5 eligible starters of note are Aaron Shortridge and Braxton Ashcraft, both of whom are not too far removed from Tommy John surgery and shouldn't draw much buzz. Carmen Mlodzinski and Kyle Nicolas, two right-handers with high draft pedigrees, both pitched in Altoona this past season and could be on the major-league radar next year.
WHO IS ON THE MARKET
The Pirates have a solid track record at reclamation starters of late, helping Quintana and Tyler Anderson turn their careers around. There are definitely plenty of pitchers who could fit this mold of a veteran low-risk, potentially higher reward starter. Sean Manaea, Wade Miley, Mike Clevinger and Mike Foltynewicz are some of the players who come to mind as potential bounce-back candidates who would be willing to take a one-year deal.
Ben Cherington also said during his end of season availability that he would be open to signing a player to a multi-year deal. Amazingly, the Pirates haven't signed a major-league free agent to a contract with more than one guaranteed season since Ivan Nova on Dec. 27, 2016. Recent history doesn't suggest they could sign a pitcher to a two- or three-year deal, but if they were willing to, their available options certainly expand.
Quintana would be a logical target because he was beloved in the clubhouse and he genuinely enjoyed his time in Pittsburgh. Could a contract in the ballpark of two years, $25 million get the job done? Andrew Heaney has some health questions but appeared to turn over a new leaf in 2022. If Nick Martinez opts out from his Padres deal, the Pirates could lure him over with a chance to start.
There are plenty of options on the market. The Pirates should pick up one or two to add a veteran to a young staff.
WHAT SHOULD THEY DO?
Keller and Contreras are probably the best 1-2 punch the Pirates have had since what people thought Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer were going to be in 2019. If Keller looks like his second-half self all season and Contreras takes a step forward in his development, they could be an above-average duo. Mix in a couple of other starters who have some upside already on the roster, a potential free agent and a handful of top 100 prospects waiting in reserve, and all of a sudden this looks like a potentially good group, even if there isn't an ace at the moment.
The free agent is going to be key here. Sure, they're 2-for-2 with starter reclamation projects, but do they roll the dice again or invest a little more in a more proven veteran. The track record would suggest the former, but there's no reason why the Pirates couldn't sign a moderately priced free agent if it is the right fit.
But of course it's going to be coaching and player development that makes or breaks this rotation. We've seen gradual improvement with Marin and the pitching team these past three years. There were bright spots in 2022, but they need to take a bigger step as a team next year. If this rebuild is going to be successful, the Pirates are going to need starting pitching. They might have it, which is good, because there are plenty of questions in the bullpen.
