Midweek top 10: How easy it'll be for Lions to make expanded playoff

ALTOONA, Pa. -- With so much talk this week about the current quarterback situation, let's take a look into the future.

How far into the future? Well, hopefully 2024, but maybe 2025. We'll see.

It's where we'll begin this edition of the midweek top 10.

1. Here's how easy it'll be for Penn State to make a 12-team playoff

The Nittany Lions are 6-2, and in Tuesday night's initial College Football Playoff rankings, they came in at No. 15. Let's digest that.

Penn State has not beaten a ranked team. Its two best wins have come at Purdue and at home against Minnesota, which are both 5-3. The Lions destroyed Auburn on the road, but that program is a mess and just fired coach Bryan Harsin this week.

Penn State got crushed at CFP No. 5 Michigan, 41-17. The Lions looked good for 50 minutes and led against No. 2 Ohio State, then fell apart and lost, 44-31.

So, again, despite losing their two biggest games by double digits, and despite having no wins over ranked teams, Penn State is No. 15 in the CFP rankings with four games left to play.

Now, looking ahead, there is not a ranked opponent on the remaining schedule. Maryland is decent with a 6-2 record, but no other opponent is above .500.

If the Lions run the table by beating those four teams, they will finish 10-2. That's a darn good record. And yet, it would not include a single signature win for the entire season -- one that showed us all that, yeah, this Penn State team is really good.

And you know what? At 10-2, Penn State probably will finish in the top 12 of the final College Football Playoff rankings. Good enough to make the playoff if the field were already expanded to 12, which it will be in 2-3 years.

Goodness! That playoff expansion simply cannot come quickly enough for Penn State!

I've been saying for a couple of years now that the Lions never have to beat Ohio State ever again, and they could still make the playoff each and every season in a 12-team field. What this season could end up showing us -- if Penn State does finish in the top 12 -- is that it may not be necessary to beat Ohio State or Michigan in a lot of years and STILL get into the playoff.

That is just nuts.

A 10-2 record will, most years, have a team like Penn State right there in the top 12 or at the very least on the cusp, as the Lions will be this year if they win out. But what if that 10-2 record is hollow, with wins over bad non-conference teams and then astoundingly no wins over ranked Big Ten teams? What would that tell us?

It would tell us that a 12-team playoff is going to include teams that haven't really proven a whole lot during the season, yet will get a seat at the table simply by not losing games they're not supposed to lose.

Even if, in Penn State's case, they never really win any games they're not supposed to win.

Pretty much every year, the playoff is going to include numerous teams that have two losses. And in some years there could even be a three-loss team make it.

So, the No. 1 priority with regards to the playoff will be to not lose. Well, duh! Isn't that always the case?

Not exactly.

Some programs will feel compelled to schedule tough non-conference matchups to prove how good they are, in hopes of getting that signature win that can put them over the top in the final 12 when all is said and done. But for Penn State, because it will play enough high-profile games during the Big Ten slate, there really won't be any need to schedule somebody tough in the non-conference when there's a 12-team playoff, because that just increases the chances of losing a third game -- if the Lions wind up losing to both Ohio State and Michigan.

Look, I'm not saying that Penn State will never be able to beat Ohio State or Michigan. That's not the point. At all.

The point is that the Lions may never even have to beat Ohio State or Michigan again, and can still get into the playoff as long as they take care of business against everybody else. Even when everybody else is mediocre at best.

By the way, Penn State finished in the top 12 four straight years from 2016-19 and would have made the playoff if it had been 12 teams then. The Lions lost to Ohio State each year from 2017-19 and still would have made it.

Oh, and how about this: In 2018, the Lions lost to Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State during the regular season to finish 9-3. Their lone win over a ranked team was No. 18 Iowa. And yet they STILL finished 12th and would have made a playoff that year.

Wow!

So, once again, an expanded playoff simply cannot get here soon enough for Penn State.

2. When will the playoff expand to 12?

It will be 2026 at the latest, but almost everyone believes it will happen before then, simply because there's so much TV money at stake with the extra playoff games.

There's a push right now to try and make it happen in 2024, but that might be optimistic logistically because of current TV contracts.

How much money is at stake in all of this? Try $2 billion a year. That's the latest estimate for how much a 12-team field could be worth in media rights.

3. The QB discussion would be drastically different this year

OK, so one last thing on the expanded playoff topic. Just think about how different the discussion would be regarding this year's Penn State team if there were a 12-team playoff.

Yeah, I'm talking about the quarterback situation.

So, as mentioned above, if the Lions win out and go 10-2, they probably would find themselves in the top 12. Given that, there would be no need whatsoever for the QB discussion that's taking place this week about making sure to get Drew Allar a lot of playing time to better prepare him for the future.

All the major goals would still be within reach, and in that scenario, not only would Sean Clifford continue to be the starter, he probably would get all of the playing time in these final four games. There would be no "time to turn the page" kind of stories, which are being written by many Penn State beat writers this week, because Clifford would still probably be the best option to lead the team to a 10-2 record.

Not only that, Clifford would start the playoff game(s) because he still would give the team its best chance to win in that environment. Which means that he, not Allar, would be getting the first-team reps during the month of bowl prep and also playing in the game(s), so Allar would miss out on that key development time.

Look, a lot of you out there are tired of Clifford and may believe Allar would give the Lions their best chance to win games going forward. But I'm just telling ya, if there was still a playoff berth on the line right now, there is no way James Franklin would risk turning everything over to the true freshman with that much at stake, given Clifford's vast experience.

Oh well, there's not a playoff berth on the line any longer, so all of this is a moot point for this season. Still, it's fun to try and think of how things might be different under alternative circumstances.

4. Keyvone Lee update

It's been a tough season for the running back, who was Penn State's leading rusher each of the past two years. He only has 25 carries for 94 yards and has been surpassed by freshmen Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

Lee's opportunities also have been limited because of injury. He had one carry at Michigan but none the past two games.

"Keyvone has been hurt," Franklin said Tuesday. "You guys know I don't get into injuries and sometimes for a situation like this. Keyvone has been out or limited for five weeks.

"We are hopeful to have him back. When we have him back, we feel like we've got three really good backs that, now at this point of the season, are experienced and can make plays in the pass and run game."

5. Who is the Lions' best running back?

This will be an ongoing discussion for the rest of the season. And then maybe for two more years to come, as well.

Singleton burst onto the scene with long touchdown runs early on, and he leads the team in rushing with 606 yards. Allen is second with 472 yards. Singleton is averaging 6.3 yards per carry, thanks to his several long runs, while Allen is averaging 5.2

Right now, if you had to pick who you would want in the game to get yards in a tough spot, who would you choose?

For me, it's Allen. He just looks more like a Big Ten runner, someone capable of getting tough yards after contact going up the middle.

"Kaytron has the ability to set up blocks," Franklin said. "He has tremendous vision. Like the run we saw on Saturday, he has the ability to finish runs with power. Just a very well-rounded running back. Got a very high football IQ."

At this stage, Singleton has not appeared to be as well-rounded of a running back. Yes, he can take one to the house from anywhere, but he seems to be a tad behind Allen in other key areas.

However, the big reason Singleton needs to be on the field and continue to get carries is because he does have the game-changing ability to break off a long run at any time. And the only way he can do that is to keep getting opportunities, even if more of his carries are stuffed for shorter gains than Allen may get.

Franklin said the two young running backs "have really complemented each other well."

"You want to rotate those guys as much as you can to keep them healthy," Franklin said. "We have been fortunate this year to pretty much every week have at least two backs that we feel really good about.

"It'll be nice, hopefully if we're in a situation (to) have Keyvone back this week. Just met with him yesterday. Had a really good meeting with him."

6. Meeting with Clifford

Franklin slipped in one interesting piece of information Tuesday that kind of went under the radar.

He was talking about his relationship with Clifford and whether the quarterback gets more input than others because he's been around so long. Franklin noted, "He did come up to me on Sunday and wanted to talk to me on Monday. But we haven't had that conversation yet."

It could be nothing. It could be something. We have no idea what Clifford wanted to talk to the coach about, although some fans have let their imaginations run wild with theories, which I'm not going to get into here.

Still, that sort of thing isn't brought up very often by Franklin -- that a player comes up to him and wants to meet -- so we can only be left wondering what Clifford might have wanted to discuss.

We may find out if the QB is asked about it following Saturday's game at Indiana.

7. Plenty of love for Olu Fashanu

It's remarkable how much attention the left tackle has been getting in recent weeks, despite being a 19-year-old first-year college starter. There's growing speculation he could be a first-round draft pick, and a high first-round pick at that.

Fashanu came out of the game with an apparent injury on the final series against Ohio State, so we'll have to see if that impacts his status going forward.

"We'll see how this week goes with him," Franklin said.

The coach has been talking up Fashanu a lot lately, and he had plenty more to say Tuesday.

"He's got a chance to be an Academic All-American. He has a chance to be the academic Heisman winner. I think we had one other in (John) Urschel, and obviously being talked about as a first-round draft choice," Franklin said.

"I think the biggest thing is, he has unbelievable play strength. He's strong in the weight room, but has got unbelievable play strength. He's usually in great position. If he is out of position, he has the ability to get himself back into a winning position against a defensive end. But more than anything, it's just about his consistency. You watch the tape and the guy has play after play after play of protecting the quarterback's blind side and finishing blocks. And no drama.

"To be honest with you, I don't think I've got a question about Olu all year long until he started to be talked about as a first-round draft choice. Why? He's just doing this job. Most people only notice offensive linemen when they're not doing their job. Now everybody wants to talk about him. He's an awesome kid."

8. Don't forget about the good stuff

Penn State led Ohio State, 21-16, with 9:26 left in the game, and had played like the better team up to that point. It's important to remember that, even though the Lions got destroyed over the final nine minutes and gave up 28 points.

Franklin was asked a good question about going back and watching the film, and whether players and coaches focus on all that good stuff from the first 50 minutes or the bad stuff from the end of the game.

"I think you've got to look at it all," the coach said. "You can't pick and choose the stuff you like and discard the stuff you don't like.

"To me, the thing that was obvious to us as a coaching staff -- and whether people agree with this or not -- we're better than we were two weeks ago. We played better. We're better than we were a week ago. We have gotten better. Not enough to beat that type of team. We totally recognize that. But we got better. When you watch the tape, there was a ton of stuff on that film to feel good about and be proud of.

"But you talk about four to six plays on offense, four to six plays on defense, and two to three plays on special teams, and against that type of team, those plays are significant. ... After watching and studying and critiquing it all, all of us, I think we felt like as a staff, that we got better. But we had critical mistakes, and against that type of opponent, when you make a critical mistake, they've got a chance to make you pay for it."

9. Basketball season starts Monday

The Penn State basketball team opens its season Monday at home against Winthrop, then plays Loyola (Md.) on Thursday.

Where were the Lions picked to finish in the Big Ten? Here's the breakdown, from the preseason media poll (total vote points in parenthesis):

1. Indiana (377)
2. Illinois (339)
3. Michigan (328)
4. Michigan State (281)
5. Purdue (279)
6. Ohio State (253)
7. Iowa (235)
8. Rutgers (202)
9. Wisconsin (191)
10. Maryland (153)
11. Penn State (118)
12. Minnesota (86)
13. Northwestern (56)
14. Nebraska (42)

10. Wrestling team picks up huge commitment

Penn State landed the No. 1 prospect in the country for the class of 2024 Monday when 160-pounder Joe Sealey committed to Cael Sanderson's program. Sealey is from High Point, N.C.. and was the gold medal winner at the U17 world championships.

“I am excited to announce that I am continuing my athletic and academic career at Penn State! I am so incredibly grateful to my family, friends, and coaches that got me to where I am," Sealey wrote on social media.

Here's a look at Sealey in action winning the world championship.