BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- Penn State's trip here has all the makings of a classic trap game.
Except for one, which I'll get to momentarily.
First, the trap game components:
• The Nittany Lions are deflated. They just lost their biggest game of the year, and did so in crushing fashion because they led Ohio State after 51 minutes, 21-16, before falling apart in a 44-31 defeat.
• The season's biggest goals -- winning a Big Ten title and getting to the College Football Playoff -- are gone.
• All the talk about the program this week has been around the quarterback situation, not the actual game coming up. That's the kind of thing that can prevent a team from being fully focused.
So, it's a TRAP GAME!
Ehhh ... not really. Or at least it shouldn't be.
Indiana doesn't match up well against Penn State. That's the most important thing. It also comes in with a five-game losing streak and has problems at quarterback.
The Hoosiers run a fast-paced offense that relies heavily on the passing game, but there are two big problems. First, their passing game isn't really all that good. And second, the Lions' pass defense is very good.
Indiana also doesn't run the ball well, so there's not a lot of balance on offense. One-dimensional teams rarely give Penn State a ton of trouble, especially ones that aren't good on the ground.
Finally -- and this is a big part of the huge story line this week -- whoever plays quarterback for Penn State is going to be incredibly highly motivated for this game. So, even if some players in the program are deflated and could fall victim to the trap game element, that won't be the case for the Lions' signal caller.
CLIFFORD'S MOTIVATION
I not only believe Sean Clifford will start for Penn State, I think he'll play the vast majority of the game, as opposed to Drew Allar getting a lot of meaningful snaps when the game is close.
James Franklin talked a lot this week about the 1-0 mentality being the most important thing. It doesn't take a codebreaker to realize that means he's going with Clifford, just as he has for four years.
"I guess that's where I struggle a little bit with (these questions)," Franklin said. "There's still a ton of football left to be played, and whoever is going to give us a chance to be 1-0 this week and have a chance to win a bunch of games this year for all the guys in the locker room, that's who we're gonna go with."
Sean Clifford is a smart guy. He knows he's nearing the end. He knows everyone is calling for Allar to play. He knows what his legacy will be at Penn State.
He also wants to shut everyone up by coming out and playing a great game, just as he did against Minnesota two weeks ago. And remember, he played poorly out here two years ago in the crazy game that was decided by a bad 2-point call in OT that went the Hoosiers' way, so Clifford has that to atone for.
He's not going to let this be a trap game.
ALLAR'S MOTIVATION
If, by some miracle, Allar does start the game or at least gets to play about half the contest, you just know he will be amped up to make his mark in his first extended opportunity in a Big Ten contest.
He's not going to let this be a trap game.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: No. 16 Penn State (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) at Indiana (3-5, 1-4)
• When: 3:30 p.m. Saturday
• Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind. (52,656)
• Weather: Light rain 62°, 68% chance of rain, 17 mph wind
• TV: ABC
• Radio: WPIT 96.5 FM, Penn State Sports Radio Network
• Satellite: Sirius XM 135, online 957
• Media notes: Penn State | Indiana
LAST TIME HERE
I've joked before that it was the game that broke Penn State football. The Lions lost in OT to the Hoosiers to open the 2020 season, 36-35, on a highly controversial 2-point conversion by QB Michael Penix Jr. Replay and still photos appeared to show the ball hit out of bounds just before Penix stretched it to the pylon, but it was called a good conversion, giving the Hoosiers an incredible victory.
Penn State went on to start that season 0-5, when in reality it should have won the Indiana game if the replay officials had gotten the call right.
"Definitely something, a big part of our history," Indiana coach Tom Allen said this week of that crazy win. "That moment, unique situation for sure with the way it all played itself out regarding that, leading up to that. Weren't supposed to play them, schedule changed, everything that happened with of pandemic. Limited fans were obviously in attendance.
"The thing you remember is guys found a way to finish the game. Got off to a strong start, led most of the game, fell behind at the very end, and found a way to rally back, send it into overtime, have historic play."
Penn State got its revenge last year, dominating the Hoosiers at Beaver Stadium in a 24-0 victory.
TWO REASONS
Two reasons Penn State will win:
1. The Lions' defense should be able to take away a lot of what Indiana likes to do offensively, particularly in the passing game. More on that below.
2. There is a lot of character on this Penn State team, which is another reason why I don't think the trap game component is a big danger here. Franklin has talked about PJ Mustipher's leadership after losses, and that's the kind of thing the team has needed this week following the loss to Ohio State. If Penn State wins, we should find out after the game which players stepped up in practice as the leaders this week.
Two reasons Indiana could win:
1. Sure, it's one thing to dismiss the trap game possibility, but we are dealing with college kids here, so you just never know. If, in fact, the Lions don't come out ready to play, we have seen games stay close at Indiana over the years, and the longer the Hoosiers can stick around, the better their chances.
2. Honestly, there's not much here. This just isn't a good Hoosier team on either side of the ball. If I had to come up with something, it would be that the Hoosiers gave Maryland a good battle at home a couple of weeks ago in a 38-33 loss. Maryland is decent, so that was the kind of showing that makes you think the Hoosiers could cause some problems. Also, Indiana is coming off a bye after losing at Rutgers two weeks ago, so maybe it has had time to develop a good game plan for the Lions.
FIVE KEYS
My five keys for Penn State:
1. The Hoosiers' offense will go fast and run a lot of plays. It's always that way, and it can take some getting used to. The Lions' outstanding secondary will make it tough on Indiana's passing game to get many big plays. Look for tight coverage from the DBs, and perhaps multiple interceptions, since the Hoosiers probably will throw 45-50 passes. Do not necessarily expect Penn State to get much pressure on the quarterback, since Indiana excels at getting rid of the ball quickly. However ...
2. We don't know who will start at quarterback for the Hoosiers, and that could be a big factor. Connor Bazelak has started all season and thrown for 2,099 yards with 12 TDs and nine interceptions. He's completing only 54.9 percent, which isn't good for a quick, ball-control offense. Allen wouldn't commit earlier this week to Bazelak starting. The other QB possibilities are backup Jack Tuttle, who hasn't played this season and has already announced he will be transferring after this year, and Dexter Williams, who hasn't taken a snap in his college career. So ... yeah, the Hoosiers' messy QB situation should bode very well for a Penn State defense that has excellent defensive backs.
3. Play Allar. A lot. I don't know if it's going to happen, but it definitely should. I fully expect Clifford to start. If so, the Lions need to take control of the game to ensure that Allar does get an extended shot. But if the game is close, I could see Franklin sticking with Clifford, which would only take away opportunities for the freshman. Unless Penn State loses the game, the Clifford-Allar comparison likely will be the biggest story line to come out of Saturday.
4. Dominate. There's no reason for this game to be close, and everyone in the Penn State program can feel really good if they get a convincing bounce-back victory here.
5. The Lions should be able to run the ball well against the Hoosiers, who haven't fared well stopping teams on the ground. Let's see which freshman running back -- Nicholas Singleton or Kaytron Allen -- has a better day, because that will be a fun thing to watch for several years. I could see Singleton breaking off a long run in this one.
PREDICTION
Penn State 35, Indiana 13
I don't like the Hoosiers' offense at all, so this should be an outstanding day for Penn State's defense.
HOW TO BET THE GAME
Penn State is favored by 13.5 points. Over/under is 51.
Jump on the Lions to cover. They have a lot of motivation to play well here, and this is a good matchup in their favor.
I was asked by someone in the comments how my game best bets have gone this season. Happy to say I've won five in a row against the spread and am 6-2 on the season. Some games I bought some extra points to move the line the a little. Here's a breakdown of my picks and how each fared:
• W Ohio State: PSU +15
• W Minnesota: PSU -5
• W Michigan: Michigan -6
• W Northwestern: NW +28
• W Central Mich: CMU +28
• L Auburn: Auburn +3
• L Ohio: Ohio +27
• W Purdue: over 53.5
