ALTOONA, Pa. -- Three huge things happened in college football over the weekend, and now Penn State needs one more thing to occur and it very well could be heading to the Rose Bowl.
That didn't seem possible heading into Saturday's games, for a multitude of reasons. The Nittany Lions were considered a strong possibility to earn a New Year's Six bowl bid, but it has been projected for some time to be the Orange Bowl, with the Rose not even being discussed.
But then, these three things occurred:
• Clemson lost to Notre Dame. Badly, 35-14. The Tigers seemed to have the easiest path remaining to an undefeated season and College Football Playoff berth, because they play in the watered-down ACC. But now, Clemson seems to have very little shot at the playoff.
• Alabama lost to LSU in overtime, 32-31. Look, we all know how this goes with Bama. If the Tide are anywhere close to the playoff, they're generally going to get the benefit of the doubt. But with two losses now, the Tide would seem to be toast. No way they're getting to the playoff, unless complete and utter chaos takes place with about 10 different teams.
• Tennessee lost to Georgia, 27-13, in a game that wasn't even that close. The Vols still have a path to the playoff, but it just got a lot tougher.
So now, getting to the point, here is what Penn State really needs to happen. And if it does, well, the Lions could find themselves smelling the roses.
Ohio State and Michigan need to play a close game to end the regular season, and the Buckeyes probably need to win that close game.
That's it. Really.
OK, OK, some other things need to happen, too. But they are all things that are very likely, so essentially, Penn State just needs everyone to kind of hold serve from here on out.
Georgia will get to the playoff by going undefeated and winning the SEC. Even if the Bulldogs were to lose the SEC title game, they'd still get in.
The winner between Ohio State and Michigan will go to the playoff, as long as it wins the Big Ten title game.
That leaves two remaining spots.
Clemson lost badly. It's out.
Tennessee wasn't impressive in its loss.
So, as long as Michigan plays a good game and loses by one score at Ohio State, then the Wolverines would probably have the strongest case of any one-loss team.
And if Ohio State and Michigan both go to the playoff, then Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl as the next-best Big Ten team.
OK, so what if Michigan beats Ohio State? Well, that could be bad for the Buckeyes, the Big Ten and Penn State. The game is in Columbus, and if Ohio State loses at home, it would be a bad loss.
Tennessee lost at Georgia, so that road loss could be deemed better than Ohio State's home loss, and therefore the Vols might get in as the second team from the SEC, instead of two teams from the Big Ten.
Clearly we're playing the hypothetical game here, and there's a whole lot of season left. A bunch of things could still happen.
But if the best teams hold serve from here on out, then the playoff could be:
• Georgia
• Ohio State
• TCU
• Michigan
I'm not sold that TCU can go undefeated. The Horned Frogs play at Texas this week, then at Baylor, then host Iowa State. I see them losing one of the next two. If TCU does lose, we could see the SEC and Big Ten both get two teams in -- Georgia and Tennessee from the SEC, Ohio State and Michigan from the Big Ten.
But even if TCU does go undefeated and gets the third spot, I still see Michigan getting in -- once again, as long as the Wolverines lose by a slim margin at Ohio State.
Michigan could have a stronger case, in that scenario, than any other current one-loss team since their road loss would be better than Tennessee's road loss. Helping the Wolverines' resume would be their 41-17 trouncing of Penn State, if the Lions go on to finish 10-2 and ranked close to the top 10.
What about Oregon, which a lot of people seem to like? The Ducks lost to Georgia by 46 points (49-3) on a neutral field in the season opener. I have to believe Michigan, with a close loss at Ohio State, would be picked over a team that lost a game by 46 points.
None of this stuff is guaranteed, of course, and different people on the playoff committee could have very different takes. For me, I just so happen to believe Ohio State and Michigan are two of the four best teams, and so I'd like to see both get in.
Oh yeah, forgot to mention this:
Obviously, Penn State needs to win out and finish 10-2. But the Lions have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way -- vs. Maryland, at Rutgers, vs. Michigan State -- and should be able to navigate it with three more wins.
PENN STATE IN THE POLLS
The Lions moved up two spots to No. 14 in the AP poll and one spot to No. 15 in the coaches poll Sunday, following Saturday's 45-14 win at Indiana.
Penn State was No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings last week and should move up at least one spot this week.
