MONTREAL -- The most perplexing thing about the Penguins' start to the season has been the performance of Kris Letang.
Right out of the gates, Letang's first two games of the season were two of the best games I've seen him play in a long, long time. He was skating well, flashing his high-end passing ability, effectively moving the puck up ice and, most importantly, he was defending incredibly well.
Granted, those two games were against a lousy Coyotes lineup and the Lightning on a second night of a back-to-back, but that doesn't completely diminish how utterly dominant Letang was.
In those two games, Letang played slightly under 34 minutes at 5-on-5. During that time, the Penguins outscored the opposition 3-0, took 63.2% of the shot attempts and controlled an absolutely absurd 89.5% of the expected goals, per Evolving-Hockey. Letang's average game score across those two games was 4.64, the best mark in the entire NHL by a hefty margin at the time. And that was with Brian Dumoulin strapped to his hip for the majority of his ice-time.
"I just think he’s picked up where he left off last year," Mike Sullivan told me of Letang's performance following the game against the Lightning. "He’s playing a calculated game. He’s just taking what the game gives him. We rely on him so much on both sides of the puck. He’s defending hard when we need him to, he’s quarterbacking the power play up top. … He’s playing a smart hockey game on both sides of the puck."
That player has been nowhere to be found in his 12 games since then.
Letang has looked extremely lethargic in almost every component of the game. His puck management has been downright terrible, and his work defensively has been porous. He's played 225 minutes at 5-on-5 following his two-game reign of terror, and the Penguins' results in that time might be even worse than you imagined. They've been outscored 12-7, taken 43.2% of the shot attempts and controlled only 37.1% of the expected goals. Those numbers make Mark Jankowski's ice-time with the Penguins from a couple of seasons ago look like a resounding success.
It's still too early in the season to make sweeping conclusions based off the statistical models that isolate a player's impact, but it is worth noting that Letang's isolated impact toward even-strength goal-scoring, chance generation and chance suppression all grade out below league-average. In regard to chance suppression, specifically, his isolated impact is among the worst of all defenders around the league.
Stating the obvious here: That is completely unacceptable from someone who plays at the very top of the lineup and sees the ice more than anyone else.
Another maddening element to Letang's game right now is an inability to put his shots on goal. He's attempted 69 shots this season. 29 of them were blocked, and another 15 missed the net. Nowhere close to good enough.
There's no longer the excuse of Dumoulin dragging him down, either, as Letang's results haven't changed a whole heck of a lot so far with Marcus Pettersson as his partner.
The Penguins should be -- and need to be -- controlling play in a rather hefty fashion during his ice-time, but they aren't anywhere close to even keeping their heads above water with him out there right now.
• I continue to see nonsense that Evgeni Malkin's strong offensive contributions should be minimized because of his "lazy" defensive play. I'm not going to sit here and tell you he's on top of his defensive game at all times, but whatever he's doing out there is working just fine. With him on the ice at 5-on-5, the Penguins are allowing 2.41 expected goals against per hour. That figure is lower than the rate at which all of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Jeff Carter, Danton Heinen and Kasperi Kapanen have been on the ice for quality chances against. The rate at which Malkin is on the ice for actual goals against is even lower at 1.71 per hour, the fourth-best rate among Penguins forwards. He's benefitting from quality goaltending right now, but even when that levels out, it'll be inconsequential unless his offense suddenly falls off a cliff.
• Jeff Petry's first month with the Penguins has been rather disappointing. He hasn't been anywhere near as bad as many have made him out to be, but at the same time, he hasn't been anywhere good enough to justify trading for him and taking on his $6.25 million cap hit for another two seasons after this one, let alone moving on from John Marino, who is having quite the breakout with the Devils right now. Petry's 51% share of 5-on-5 goals and 53.2% share of expected goals this season ranks ahead of only Letang and Dumoulin on the Penguins' blue line.
• Jason Zucker is finally playing like the player the Penguins thought they were getting when they acquired him in 2019-20 from the Wild. With him on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, the Penguins are creating 4.1 expected goals per hour. Not only is that the best figure on the Penguins, but it's the fourth-highest mark of every single NHL skater to play 120 minutes at 5-on-5. And unlike last season, the puck luck is playing in his favor, as his actual on-ice goals for rate exceeds the expected output, checking in at 4.54 goals per hour.
• Is it time to be concerned about Tristan Jarry? He has allowed 3.45 more goals than expected based on the quality of chances he's faced this season, which ranks 57th out of 66 qualified goaltenders. His save percentage is hanging on for dear life at .900, and his goals against average of 3.55 is plain awful. He admitted that he's dealing with physical issues that have affected his performance, but if it is affecting him that drastically, he shouldn't be playing.
• On the flip side, Casey DeSmith has saved 2.08 more goals than expected this season, and he's rocking a respectable .916 save percentage and 2.67 goals against average.
• I'm not sure how much longer the coaching staff will continue to roll with the status quo regarding the No. 1 power-play unit, but personnel change is needed, and that's not limited to anyone in particular. Crosby does not have a power-play goal in his last 28 games. Letang does not have a power-play goal in his last 31 games. Rust has one in his last 30. Malkin has one in his last 14. Guentzel has one in his last 10. Despite endless comments about a shooting mindset on the power play, the top unit seems to only want to try and pass the puck into the net.
• The Penguins' 13.2% shooting percentage with Rickard Rakell on the ice at 5-on-5 is entirely unsustainable, but it'd be hard to argue that he's not having an immense impact toward goal-scoring even if he's not racking up a ton of points. They're currently scoring a ridiculous 5.06 goals every hour Rakell spends on the ice, the highest rate on the team and the fifth-highest rate in the NHL.
• After a day off on Sunday, the Penguins will be back on the ice for practice on Monday, 11 a.m., at the UPMC Lemieux Sports Complex in Cranberry. I'll be there, as will Taylor Haase, for your coverage.
