UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Let's go about rankings a different way here, by asking these questions:
How many teams in the country would beat Penn State? And which ones?
If we look at things that way, maybe we can come up with a real rank of where the Nittany Lions actually are this season.
First, here's where Penn State ranks in the polls, etc.
AP poll: No. 11
Coaches poll: No. 12
College Football Playoff: No. 14 last week, likely to move up to 11 or 12 this week
ESPN Football Power Index: No. 8
What I'm really trying to get at here is based more on that last one, the FPI, which is supposed to be able to predict if one team is better than another. And clearly, that computer metric holds Penn State in higher regard than human voters in the polls or the College Football Playoff committee.
Polls, we all know, lean extremely heavily on how many games a team has lost. So, you'll get a team like TCU at No. 4 in the playoff rankings because it's undefeated, even though the Horned Frogs are way down at No. 16 in the Football Power Index. Clearly, the computers don't respect the Horned Frogs very much.
Now, there can be huge problems with computer rankings, too. For instance, Texas is 6-4 but sits at No. 7 in the Football Power Index, despite having just lost at home on Saturday to TCU, which is nine spots lower.
That's absurd. And it's a reason why computer models -- just like human polls -- always have to be taken with a grain of salt and skepticism. I mean, any computer formula that still has a 6-4 team ahead of a 10-0 team that it just lost to at home needs to have its entire algorithm questioned.
Fans always like to gripe about how rankings don't matter, and it's just not true. They matter in a lot of ways when it comes to perception and respect. And of course, we all know rankings are fun to digest and debate, even by people who say they don't matter.
OK, so where does Penn State rank in terms of the teams it would or would not beat this season? We have a baseline metric with the Football Power Index figure being at No. 8, but again, how can we trust that thing?
For this exercise, I'm just winging it with opinions. Because that's all rankings really are anyway, right?
To lay down some criteria, let's go with this:
1. The games would be played on a neutral field.
2. Penn State would have the services of left tackle Olu Fashanu and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Both are injured and may or may not return to action, but for this discussion, let's assume they would play.
See if you agree with my opinions.
TEAMS PENN STATE WOULD NOT BEAT
I'm not gonna dive too much into these because most people should agree with these picks:
• Georgia
• Ohio State
• Michigan
• Tennessee
• Alabama
TEAMS PENN STATE WOULD BEAT
Alrighty, here's where things get fun. I'll go with:
• TCU
• Utah
• Oregon
• Florida State
• Kansas State
• Ole Miss
That's right, I'll take Penn State over TCU. The reason is the Lions' defense and outstanding secondary, which continue to impress week after week. I would see Utah and Oregon having problems with the Lions' defensive physicality and outstanding pass coverage.
THE COIN-FLIP GAMES
• USC
• Clemson
• LSU
• North Carolina
I would lean toward LSU winning, and also toward Penn State beating UNC. I initially had Clemson firmly in the category of teams Penn State would beat, because I think the Lions' defense would give the Tigers a lot of problems. But that game could go either way. Same for USC, which I initially had in teams that would beat Penn State before adding here. The Trojans' defense has lots of issues.
FINAL VERDICT
Here's my final tally -- which again is purely opinion -- of where the Lions would rank with regards to the teams I believe they would beat.
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Tennessee
5. Alabama
6. LSU
7. Penn State
8. Clemson
9. USC
10. Utah
11. North Carolina
12. Oregon
Am I being too generous toward Penn State? I've got the Lions beating some good teams from 9-12, and of course those games could go either way. Penn State hasn't beaten a single ranked team all season, so any of you can make the case that I'm being far too optimistic here.
At the same time, the two losses have come to two of the three best teams in the country, and that counts for something, especially the way the Lions played against Ohio State for the first 51 minutes of that game.
The Lions still have a very average quarterback in Sean Clifford. He would need to make some big plays and avoid turnovers in order to beat any of these teams.
But hey, I've been accused many times in the past of being too negative when it comes to Penn State. So, this time I'll go the other way and be overly optimistic, based primarily on the outstanding defense, the improved running game and the fact that Clifford has played in a lot of big games and seen all kinds of defenses.
Let me know in the comments which of these teams you believe Penn State would or would not beat.
