PISCATAWAY, N.J. -- There was nearly chaos in college football Saturday, as Michigan and TCU almost lost, while Ohio State was pushed to the brink.
All three of those teams are ranked in the top four, and all three wound up winning. So, chaos was avoided.
However, No. 5 Tennessee did lose, 63-38 at South Carolina, and that outcome has big implications for Penn State.
Tennessee was considered a leading contender to make the College Football Playoff, even with one loss (at Georgia). But the Volunteers are out of the running now.
Tennessee's loss opens the door for potentially two Big Ten teams to get into the playoff -- Ohio State and Michigan. If that happens, Penn State would be in line to go to the Rose Bowl if it beats Michigan State this week to finish 10-2.
The biggest obstacle blocking that possibility -- prior to Saturday -- may have been Tennessee finishing 11-1 and possibly being in line for a playoff berth over Michigan.
Now, the biggest obstacle could be human interest. As in: What will the humans on the playoff committee be more interested in?
This could end up being a fascinating situation to watch.
Let's assume Georgia wins the SEC and TCU wins the Big 12 to earn playoff spots. Let's also assume Ohio State holds at home and beats Michigan this week and wins the Big Ten.
That would leave one spot left in the playoff.
Michigan would be 11-1 with the best loss of any one-loss team in the country, that being at No. 2 Ohio State. In this scenario, the Wolverines have to play well and at least make it a close game.
USC has a chance to finish 11-1 also. Its loss was at Utah (43-42), which is currently No 14. So clearly, Michigan would have a better loss than USC.
But USC could have the trump card in all this, because the Trojans can still win a conference championship. That could end up being a HUGE factor for the playoff committee if it winds up deciding between Michigan and USC.
The Trojans did not have a win over a ranked team until they held on to beat No. 15 UCLA, 48-45, late Saturday night. USC closes this week against No. 18 Notre Dame, then likely would play No. 12 Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game.
Michigan has only one win over a ranked team -- the 41-17 trouncing of Penn State. That win looks better and better since the Nittany Lions have come on so strong of late and are now ranked No. 11.
What would the committee do? Pick the one-loss team that lost (presumably) a close game on the road to the No. 2 team? Or the one-loss team that lost to the No. 14 team on the road, but closed with three straight wins over top 20 teams AND won a conference championship?
Oh boy.
We've been told for several years now that the committee places a lot of emphasis on conference championships. In fact, it is the No. 1 criteria for the committee, according to its website:
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
USC would have a championship. Michigan would not. Does that mean the Trojans would be guaranteed to be the pick? It all depends, really, on what the phrase "must be considered" means. Does it mean considered as in "we gotta take a look at this," or does it mean considered as in "we gotta make a decision because of this?"
I think Michigan is better than USC. If the Wolverines barely lose at Ohio State, I would pick them for the playoff.
But I have a feeling that the committee is going to pick USC, all because of the conference championship thing. Even though the Trojans' conference doesn't have any team as good as Ohio State, which also would beat USC if they were to play.
There is also Clemson in this discussion. The Tigers likely will finish 11-1 and win the ACC championship game, so they too would have a title and Michigan would not. But Clemson got clobbered at Notre Dame, 35-14, which is a much worse loss than Michigan losing at Ohio State (again, as long as it's a close game).
All of this could change if: Notre Dame beats USC this week, or the Trojans lose in the Pac-12 title game. Or if TCU loses to Iowa State this week or in the Big 12 title game.
If any of that were to happen, Michigan would be in the playoff, and Penn State would go to the Rose Bowl.
But as of right now, if everything plays out with favorites winning, here's who I think will make the playoff:
• Georgia
• Ohio State
• TCU
• USC
Man, if that happens, the Michigan folks are going to be livid. Now, they'll have themselves to blame to a degree, because their non-conference schedule was a complete joke (Colorado State, Hawaii, UConn). Still, if a team goes 11-1 with only a close loss at No. 2 Ohio State, it would be crazy if that team doesn't get into the playoff.
Which team would you pick: An 11-1 Michigan, or a 12-1 USC with a Pac-12 title? Put your replies in the comments.
