We're already slightly past the quarter mark of the NHL season. There's a long way to go, but there's also plenty to learn from what has transpired over the first month and a half of the new campaign.
The players who are sizzling likely won't stay that red hot for the duration of the season, just as those who are freezing cold should unthaw (somewhat) by the time April rolls around.
Following the concerning news of the stroke that Kris Letang suffered on Monday, the Penguins are going to need the forwards up front to take on a greater responsibility for the team's success as the defensemen on the back end will look to fill his absence by committee.
Let's dive into some report cards for each Penguins forward and see which of them are making the biggest impact, and which of them must improve the rest of the way.
FORWARDS
Jake Guentzel: B+
Games played: 19
Goals: 11
Assists: 10
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 51.4%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 53.8%
While Guentzel does lead the NHL with four empty-net goals this season, that has pretty much offset his lack of production on the power play. Last season he had 22 power-play points in 76 games. This season, he's on pace for only 12 power-play points over 82 games. Regardless, Guentzel remains one of the premier offensive wingers in the NHL, even if his 5-on-5 output isn't quite on the level it was last regular season. A good way to get closer to last season's levels would be to shoot a bit more, as the rate at which he's attempting shots is the second-lowest mark of his career.
The one thing that's holding back Guentzel's grade here is his defensive play. Over the past three seasons, very few forwards around the league have a worse isolated impact toward their team's ability to limit quality chances against. That trend hasn't changed this season. No Penguins skater has been on the ice for a higher rate of expected goals against than Guentzel, and only Letang has been on the ice for a higher rate of shots against. Much of that is minimized by his high-end offense, but it does hurt his overall impact.
GETTY
Jake Guentzel attempts a backhand pass against the Flames at PPG Paints Arena.
Sidney Crosby: A
Games played: 23
Goals: 12
Assists: 19
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 54.9%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 54.5%
How ridiculous is it that Crosby -- 35 years old, mind you -- sits seventh in the NHL in points despite putting up just five points on the power play? Quite ridiculous, if you ask me. No other forward inside the league's top 25 point-producers has fewer than seven power-play points. Not really doing it for you? OK, how about this: Crosby's 21 points at 5-on-5 are more than anyone else in the league has. There have been three instances in which a player has recorded 70+ points at 5-on-5 since 2007-08, the most being 76 from Henrik Sedin in 2009-10. Crosby's on pace for 74.
I'm not here to tell you Crosby's 5-on-5 production will remain so gaudy forever -- the Penguins are shooting a destined-to-regress 13.1% with him on the ice -- but I am here to tell you that we'll look back on what he's doing right now as another item on the long list of things we have taken for granted after watching him for so many years. He has shown his age a tad in a few games that he was uncharacteristically quiet, but he's made up for it with five performances of three points or more. He is still one of the very best in hockey.
Rickard Rakell: A-
Games played: 23
Goals: 9
Assists: 5
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 71%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 58.2%
His point total might not lead you to believe so, but Rakell has been one of the Penguins' best and most consistent players all season. The thing about Rakell is that he's helping the team regardless of whether or not he's filling the net. He does so much of the dirty work in the grind areas that opens up space and allows his linemates to do what they do best. He also thinks the game incredibly well, and is able to use his high hockey IQ and combine it with his slick hands to extend possessions or make "something out of nothing."
Rakell's six goals at 5-on-5 are tied for second on the Penguins, and his 97 shot attempts at 5-on-5 are the most on the team. It's still too early in the season to put a whole lot of weight into one-size-fits-all metrics like goals above replacement (GAR), but it is significant that Rakell ranks sixth in the entire NHL in Evolving-Hockey's GAR model. That number is heavily influenced by Rakell's high on-ice shooting percentage of 13.2%, but it doesn't change the fact that Rakell has been a near perfect complement to whatever line he's playing on.
Jason Zucker: A-
Games played: 21
Goals: 5
Assists: 10
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 58.7%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 61.9%
Zucker's finally healthy and finally playing like the player the Penguins expected to receive when they acquired him from the Wild during the 2019-20 season. You still might like to see another goal here and there, but a 19-goal, 58-point pace is perfectly acceptable, especially when you consider his limited power-play usage and the enormous impact he's having at both ends of the ice. The Penguins are controlling 61.9% of the expected goals with Zucker on the ice at 5-on-5, which is a team-high. Among all NHL forwards, Zucker has the fifth-highest overall impact on quality chances for and against. The man thinks it's 2017-18 again.
The key, of course, will be to remain healthy going forward, but so far Zucker has proven exactly why he can be the Penguins' X-factor this season.
Evgeni Malkin: A-
Games played: 23
Goals: 8
Assists: 12
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 62.6%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 59.2%
He's currently without a point in four consecutive games, but up until that streak started, Malkin was playing some of his very best hockey in years. He's still playing just fine even if the pucks aren't going in right now. For as much talk as there was over the offseason about Malkin being a "5-on-5 liability," he has some of the most sparkling on-ice metrics at full-strength on the Penguins, as his 59.2% expected goals share trails only Zucker, and both his expected goals against and actual goals against rates are strong, especially for someone who hasn't exactly been great defensively throughout their career.
The 14 points Malkin has recorded at 5-on-5 are tied for 22nd in the NHL -- the same total as Nathan Mackinnon, David Pastrnak and Jack Eichel. If the Penguins' power play is able to find some semblance of a pulse, there shouldn't be much that gets in the way of Malkin producing another point-per-game season.
GETTY
Evgeni Malkin celebrates his goal against the Maple Leafs in Toronto.
Bryan Rust: C+
Games played: 23
Goals: 5
Assists: 5
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 42.8%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 53.6%
There are some rather concerning elements to Rust's game at the moment, but there's also reason to believe this is nothing more than a slump that most players go through. This isn't exactly unfamiliar territory for Rust, either, as he's been through stretches like this before. He has all of six points at five-on-five this season, but the frequency of his shot attempts and shots on goal -- and even his actual goal scoring -- are on par or slightly higher than each of the previous two seasons.
What's really hurting him is his work on the power play. The quality of his shots have remained roughly the same, but he's attempting to shoot significantly less than the previous two seasons, and less than half of those attempts are making it on target when he does opt to fire. He's currently putting up 2.39 power-play points per hour, by far the lowest rate since he became a full-time member of the power play. His defensive impact at even-strength is also troubling, but we'll leave that for another time.
GETTY
Bryan Rust dives to clear the puck against the Sabres in Buffalo.
Brock McGinn: B-
Games played: 23
Goals: 6
Assists: 3
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 54.7%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 51.4%
Have we seen this act before? McGinn had nine goals in his first 38 games last season, but closed it out with three goals in his final 26 games. He's right on track to hit nine goals around the 38-game mark this season, it's just a question of him keeping up a 20-goal pace for the duration. He's currently shooting a career-high 16.7% and most of his goals have come off the rush, something that's not all that repeatable for a bottom-sixer.
Aside from burying it off the rush, McGinn isn't much of an offensive play-driver, but the good news is that his defensive impact has significantly improved from where it was last season. It's gone a long way toward justifying the contract he received in the summer of 2021. He's also formed some legit chemistry with Teddy Blueger on the penalty-kill that hasn't surrendered a goal since Blueger returned from injury. Then there's the case to be made that he's kind of punching above his weight on the third line and providing a decent impact despite that. Ideally, he's a fourth-liner, but the Penguins' lineup just hasn't shaken out that way. McGinn has been solid, all things considered.
Jeff Carter: D+
Games played: 20
Goals: 3
Assists: 8
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 54.6%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 49.2%
You've been waiting for this one, haven't you? Carter is no longer suited to play center in the kind of system the Penguins are playing. I'm not questioning his effort whatsoever, but he frequently appears to be floating in the defensive zone and chooses to use his bursts of energy very sporadically. He does not possess the puck across either blue line anywhere close to a good enough level for what the Penguins need from their third-line center. The transition and defensive responsibilities are too much at this stage. It's coming at the cost of his ability to score, too, as his lone goal in the past month came without a goalie in the crease.
The Penguins clearly value Carter's high-end ability taking faceoffs, but it's curious to me that they haven't shifted him to the wing while allowing him to continue taking faceoffs. Hockey is plenty fluid enough to allow for such a thing. I believe the best path toward squeezing value out of Carter is leveraging his willingness to shoot and get pucks to the net, something that would be much easier for him to do playing on the wing.
GETTY
Jeff Carter hits Justin Holl at PPG Paints Arena.
Danton Heinen: C-
Games played: 22
Goals: 3
Assists: 6
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 46.8%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 50.5%
Heinen did the Penguins a massive favor by returning on a bargain $1 million contract for this season. He got off to a hot start, picking up six points in five games, but slowly started to vanish afterward. So much to the point that he found himself out of the lineup as a healthy scratch on Tuesday night against the Hurricanes. He, too, hasn't scored in over a month, and part of that is because he has registered multiple shots on goal just four times in his last 17 games.
There's a real case to be made that Heinen's impact has been harmed by linemates that don't exactly fit his style, but his poor performance of late goes beyond who he's sharing the ice with. He just hasn't been good enough. I suspect that will change when he inevitably gets back into the lineup, but it might've been a tad unfair to expect a repeat of last season when Heinen nearly scored 20 goals averaging the fewest minutes per game of Penguins regulars.
Danton Heinen protects the puck from Arber Xhekaj in Montreal.
Kasperi Kapanen: D+
Games played: 14
Goals: 1
Assists: 4
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 39.4%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 49.3%
Is there much else to say about Kapanen that hasn't been covered extensively? The two-year contract with a cap hit of $3.2 million that he signed over the offseason was a bad idea the second it was signed, and it didn't take long for it to fall on its face as Kapanen was up in the press box as a healthy scratch a month into the season.
He has one goal this season. Nine in his last 82 games, the fewest among Penguins forwards. His improved defensive impact from last season has slipped back to his replacement-level career norms. He's an anchor right now, a pricey one, at that.
Ryan Poehling: B-
Games played: 23
Goals: 4
Assists: 3
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 61.4%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 51.5%
Coming into this season, Poehling hadn't really established himself as an NHL-caliber player yet, but now he's well on his way to doing so if he hasn't already. He did an adequate job serving as the Penguins' fourth-line center in Blueger's absence, but he has really taken off since moving to the wing after Blueger returned. He has three goals and an assist in his last seven games.
Poehling plays with a lot of pace and energy, and he also has some decent offensive upside for someone in his role. Most importantly, he's become an effective member of the penalty-kill. The rate at which the Penguins are allowing expected goals against with Poehling on the ice for the kill is the second-lowest mark among the entire unit. He's emerging as a really nice depth option at an extremely team-friendly $750,000 cap hit.
Teddy Blueger: B+
Games played: 8
Goals: 0
Assists: 4
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 46%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 51.6%
Blueger's on-ice metrics are hurt due to a pair of really rough showings since he's returned, but otherwise he has been quite the injection into the Penguins' lineup. There's the effect of Poehling being shifted to the wing and opening up a path to greater potential on the fourth line, but there's also the immense impact Blueger has had on the penalty-kill. The unit has been spotless with him in the lineup.
He hasn't found the back of the net yet, but I know he's hungry to bring more to the table offensively this season. A three-assist game against the Flyers in Philadelphia last week was a nice step in the right direction. The truth, however, is that anything he does to help generate offense is gravy on top of the impact he has in his own end. Most teams couldn't ask for a better fourth-line center.
GETTY
Teddy Blueger takes a faceoff against Pontus Holmberg at PPG Paints Arena.
Josh Archibald: B+
Games played: 22
Goals: 4
Assists: 2
5-on-5 on-ice goals share: 82.1%
5-on-5 on-ice expected goals share: 56.2%
OK, OK, OK ... I was wrong about Archibald. You were wrong about Archibald. We were wrong about Archibald. He's been everything the Penguins could've hoped for and more. He's annoying (to play against), he brings energy, he draws quite a few penalties, he's putting up very strong defensive numbers, and he's chipping in with the occasional goal.
It's mostly due to a crazy .978 save percentage from Penguins goalies when he's on the ice at 5-on-5, but he's rocking an 82.1% share of goals. That's the best mark on the Penguins and the second-highest mark of anyone in the NHL to play at least 180 minutes at 5-on-5. Under the same criteria, he's been on the ice for the sixth-fewest expected goals against per hour in the league, and the second-fewest goals against per hour in the league. Nothing but positive sentiments regarding his performance to date.
