SAN DIEGO -- The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
After enduring one of the worst three-year stretches in the history of the franchise, 2023 was set to be a step forward for the Pirates. Every veteran player Ben Cherington inherited in November of 2019 has departed via trade, free agency or another mean, and the roster consists of mostly young players that have been acquired over the past few years.
That group will seemingly get even younger next season. Of the 10 players Baseball America considers their top prospects, it's reasonable to think as many as seven of them will make the leap to the big leagues in 2023. This includes Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and Mike Burrows. Davis, Priester and Gonzales are the only players who are not on the 40 man roster currently, but they were the first-round draft picks from 2019-2021. They are on the major-league radar.
Bryan Reynolds was supposed to be one of the leaders of that young group and be there are the Pirates' roster turns into a potential contender. Now that's up in the air.
On Saturday, news that Reynolds had requested a trade from the Pirates was made public. The timing of the request is ideal for Reynolds. The Winter Meetings kickoff at the Grand Hyatt in San Diego Sunday night, and his name was going to be brought up by other clubs no matter what. The Pirates have heard these offers for years, but those talks never advanced far. They weren't in a position to turn down a call, but they weren't actively shopping him.
Reynolds voicing his displeasure will surely keep teams calling, even if the Pirates have publicly not changed their position.
“While it is disappointing, this will have zero impact on our decision-making this off-season or in the future," a Pirates spokesman said in a released statement Saturday. "Our goal is to improve the Pirates for 2023 and beyond. With three years until he hits free agency, Bryan remains a key member of our team. We look forward to him having a great season for the Pirates.”
The statement speaks in an absolute. It's not that simple. There are two ways this can go: Either a trade or Reynolds returns in 2023. Both scenarios contain pitfalls for the Pirates.
If Reynolds is dealt, the Pirates have a major hole in their lineup. They have some options for center field besides Reynolds. Ji Hwan Bae had an impressive year with Class AAA Indianapolis and looked comfortable in his cup of coffee with the Pirates at the end of the season. Travis Swaggerty is a former first-round pick who has been lauded as a plus defender. Jack Suwinski could slide over to center, or the Pirates could hit the free agent market. Speaking in hypotheticals for a moment, Kevin Kiermaier is an elite defender who could be in the Pirates' price range. He comes with injury history, but he at least offers more value than when they tried to replace Starling Marte with Jarrod Dyson in 2020.
There are some players with promise there, but none of them seem to have All-Star starter potential like Reynolds does.
Not to mention this lineup is not in a position to shed a big bat after ranking near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories in 2022. Among the returning players on the 40 man roster who had at least 40 plate appearances last year, just three had an OPS+ above the league-average mark of 100: Reynolds (126), Oneil Cruz (107) and Rodolfo Castro (102). The Pirates have brought in Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi this winter, two veteran hitters who stand to benefit from the shift rules changing. But with the exception of Cruz and maybe Castro or Ke'Bryan Hayes (if he is healthy), it's hard to see anyone coming close to Reynolds' 126 OPS+. And that was a bit of a down year for him compared to his 2021 campaign.
Not having Reynolds in the lineup will make it difficult for the major-league team to improve in 2023. Failing to improve in 2023 could bring about changes, including possibly manager Derek Shelton, who is reportedly on the final year of his initial contract.
But if they were to just keep Reynolds without alleviating whatever it is that caused him to make the request could lead to a different type of unpleasantness. The Pirates want him to be a clubhouse leader. Not in a rah-rah speech type of way, but someone who plays hard, sets an example and acknowledges others when they do the same. He's done that in the past. If that stops and he is instead irritated, what happens to the clubhouse and culture? Is it really beneficial to have an All-Star level player on a young team if he does not want to be there? What messaging does that send the rookies when they are promoted?
If Reynolds is to be traded, the Pirates could get a haul for him. The only big center field free agent is Brandon Nimmo (unless you want to count Aaron Judge, who only played center out of necessity last season). Reynolds is still in his prime, has three years of control remaining (a guaranteed $6.75 million in 2023 and then two arbitration years to follow) and is probably the best player available at the position.
But 2022 was a bit of a down year for him. The Pirates would have received maximum trade value for him last year, when he had another year of control and was coming off an All-Star campaign. Not to mention teams can read the request as a negotiating factor against the Pirates. Reynolds would command a haul, but not as much as it could have been. If there is anything worse than trading away your best player, it's trading them and not getting the maximum value back.
Reynolds' future is the story now for the Pirates. Not just of the Winter Meetings, but the offseason and potentially spring training if he is not traded. Unless the Pirates and Reynolds are able to rectify what has caused this request -- if even possible -- there is no clear path out of this mess.
WHAT IS THE SCHEDULE?
The meetings kick off Sunday when the results of the Hall of Fame's Contemporary Era ballot results are released at 8 p.m. Eastern. There are eight players are on the ballot this year: Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling.
On Tuesday, the inaugural amateur draft lottery takes place at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. The Pirates are one of three teams with a 16.5% chance of the top overall draft pick, but they could fall as far as ninth. The luck of the draw will determine not only where they pick, but also how much money they can spend on this draft class.
The meetings formally conclude with the Rule 5 Draft Wednesday, starting with the major-league portion at 5 p.m. Eastern. More on that below.
WHAT ARE THE PIRATES LOOKING FOR?
The Pirates came into this offseason with first base, starting pitching and catcher as three of their big areas of need. They've addressed first base already with Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi, and the Meetings are a chance to make progress in those other two positions.
The Pirates are interested in potential reunions with two of their free-agents from last year: José Quintana and Roberto Pérez. The latter is far more probable, and Pérez made it clear towards the end of the regular season that he would like to return. The Pirates' pitching staff feels the same way, and the only catcher on the 40 man roster is Endy Rodriguez, who has never appeared in the majors. A reunion makes sense for both sides.
Quintana might have pitched his way out of the range the Pirates are willing to spend this winter, though they are open to signing a player to a multi-year deal. The largest contract the Pirates have signed a non-returning free agent for is Russell Martin (2 years, $17 million during the 2012-2013 offseason), and Quintana would likely get more than that on the open market. With one of their free agent targets off the board -- Kyle Gibson signed with the Orioles Saturday -- they are going to need to continue their search, especially if they hope to add multiple starting pitchers this winter.
The Pirates have also publicly said they could look for middle infield help, and an addition to the bullpen is always on the table, especially since they're trying to add more swing-and-miss pitchers to the team.
RULE 5 DRAFT
The Pirates opened up a pair of roster spots earlier this week whenever they lost Miguel Yajure and Ali Sánchez to waivers. Even if they were to acquire a major-league player before Wednesday's draft, they will still be eligible to select a player in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft.
They also could lose a player or two this year. Malcom Nunez, Blake Sabol and Matt Gorski all were left off the roster earlier this winter and are listed in Baseball America's Rule 5 Draft preview. Depending on what happens,
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED?
2023 is intended to be a step forward for the major-league club. The roster consists mostly of young players who have years of team control remaining, so there shouldn't be too much motivation to deal any of those potential building blocks.
We've seen David Bednar's name pop up in trade rumors before, but the Pirates aren't interested in dealing him. There were some inquiries about JT Brubaker during last year's trade deadline, but unless the Pirates are confident they can acquire multiple starting pitchers this winter, it doesn't seem like they would be that motivated to move him.
It's very likely the big bomb of the Winter Meetings was dropped Saturday. Unless, of course, a Reynolds trade does materialize in the coming days.
