Giger: Lions were always going to be a bubble team taken in Altoona, Pa. (Penn State)

Penn State Athletics

Jalen Pickett puts up a jumper for Penn State during its loss to Michigan State.

We think Penn State has a good enough basketball team to make the NCAA Tournament. But at some point, the Nittany Lions are going to have to win enough big games to prove it and earn it.

So far, they just haven't gotten the job done.

Simply playing well and losing close games just isn't going to be enough.

The Lions' offense went cold in the second half Wednesday night in a big game, and they ended up falling to Michigan State, 67-58, in the Big Ten opener at the Bryce Jordan Center in University Park.

My takeaways:

1. The Lions are NOT a tournament team right now

Penn State is 6-3, and the team passes the eye test more often than not. But the eye test doesn't get teams to the NCAA Tournament.

This team has had three great opportunities to pick up big resume-building wins, and it has lost all three: to Virginia Tech (61-59), at Clemson in double-OT (101-94) and now this one to Sparty.

In Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology for ESPN, released Monday, he had Penn State as the first team out. Meaning 69th, which is not a nice spot to be in on the NCAA bubble.

Michigan State, meanwhile, was listed as one of the last four teams in.

So, when you've got two similarly placed teams battling it out, and you're at home, you simply have to win that game.

Have to.

Or else, you've got to steal a game somewhere else down the road, such as a road contest against a Big Ten power.

Hey, it's only Dec. 7. The tournament is more than three months away. That's a lifetime in college basketball.

But the bottom line is Penn State was always going to be a bubble kind of team, and since we know that, it simply has to win these kinds of key games against power programs. Being 0-3 in those games hurts. A lot.

No, this wasn't a must-win game, because there is no such thing on Dec. 7. But that doesn't take away from the fact that this was a bad loss that could be very damaging to Penn State.

2. Nothing gets any easier.

The Lions next travel to No. 17 Illinois on Saturday. That's probably going to be another loss, and an 0-2 start in the Big Ten.

Penn State has to go 9-9 in the league to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament. If the Lions fall to 0-2, they'd have to go 9-7 the rest of the way, playing a schedule filled with tough games.

So, again, all of that makes losing this game even worse.

Especially considering this amazing fact: Penn State was actually favored to beat Michigan State by 4 points. It was, according to Mark Brennan of Lions247, the first time Penn State had been favored over Sparty since at least 2004.

3. Live by the 3, die by the 3

Penn State plays a fun style of basketball that relies heavily on 3-pointers, as heavily as pretty much any team in the country. See for yourself below:

The Lions made 7 of 18 shots (39 percent) from deep in the first half, and yet the game was tied at 35. Penn State then was terrible in the second half, hitting just 1 of 9 from 3.

That ain't gonna cut it. Ever. The Lions also struggled mightily from 3 after halftime in their loss at Clemson.

Look, when you play better teams, they've got better defenders and will make you work for shots. Michigan State did that Wednesday, and Penn State's shooters wilted. Even when they had open shots.

We've said all along that Penn State can make the tournament if it's hitting shots.

But if the Lions aren't hitting 3s, they don't seem to be a very good team, because too many other things break down on offense. They had just one field goal in the final 5 minutes of this one, preventing them from having a chance in the final couple of minutes.

4. This is why it's so tough to be a Penn State basketball fan

Micah Shrewsberry made a passionate plea Monday about having fans show up to support the team. What he said was awesome and what you'd expect from a great leader.

You can listen for yourself, but be warned there is a curse word early on.

Here's the issue with what Shrewsberry said, however: The fans have been down this road many, many, many times over the years, which makes it all the more difficult for them to be able to truly buy in to Penn State basketball.

When a coach makes this kind of plea, then the team comes out two days later and loses a big game on its home court, it's a problem. Because this kind of loss makes it much easier for fans to think, "Here we go again."

I don't fault Shrewsberry at all for what he said. But he's new to Penn State, he comes from places where basketball truly mattered to everyone, and now he's at a place where he constantly has to give everyone a reason for basketball to matter to them.

That's much easier said than done at Penn State.

Here's what a noticeably down and frustrated Shrewsberry said after the game to the fans:

"Don't leave us now. Like, stick with us. I'm as frustrated as it gets. I'm as mad, as competitive as it gets. We're gonna fix our problems, we're gonna fix our issues, and we're gonna have a chance in every single game we play."

5. Major props to Michigan State, which showed a lot of grit in this win

The Spartans showed why they have such a good program, one that is always an NCAA Tournament team because they understand how to win in clutch situations.

Tom Izzo's team had lost two in a row, including its Big Ten opener at home against Northwestern. The Spartans came into this game at Penn State as sort of a desperate team, knowing that an 0-2 start in the Big Ten is difficult to overcome. So, even though Penn State played well early on, the Spartans showed more fight and determination as the game went on.

The Lions, meanwhile, folded down the stretch. Now, they're staring at the possibility of an 0-2 start in the league, unless they can dig down deep and fight the kind of fight it will take to pull out an upset at Illinois.

THE ESSENTIALS

Box score
Schedule
Standings
Statistics

WATCH: Micah Shrewsberry press conference

WATCH: Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy press conference

Loading...
Loading...