ALTOONA, Pa. -- Somebody make it make sense. Because it doesn't make one damn bit of sense.
How on earth can Will Levis possibly be considered a top 10 NFL draft pick?
Levis, the quarterback who transferred from Penn State to Kentucky, made his widely expected announcement Wednesday that he is giving up his final year of eligibility and entering the NFL draft. He will not play in Kentucky's bowl game, which is against Iowa in the Music City Bowl.
Thank you #BBN 💙 pic.twitter.com/VYkrC4j2yM
— Will Levis (@will_levis) December 7, 2022
"Because of Kentucky," Levis wrote on social media, "I found belief and confidence in myself that had not been reached beforehand, and, most importantly, we won some incredibly memorable ball games in my college career. It has been a great move forward."
Levis' next move forward very well could be as a first-round NFL draft pick, possibly even in the top five or 10. He is listed as the No. 4 overall prospect -- and No. 2 QB behind Ohio State's C.J. Stroud -- on Mel Kiper's big board of top NFL prospects.
At NFL Mock Draft Database, Levis is slotted in the top 10 for more than half of the current mocks, including the No. 1 overall pick by Damian Parson from the Draft Network.
Which. Is. Insane.
Levis has some impressive skills, first and foremost a canon arm. He's also 6-foot-3, 232 pounds and is a good runner, so he absolutely looks the part of what NFL teams want in a quarterback.
Except for the fact that, you know, he's just simply not a really good quarterback.
Levis isn't terrible. He can do some things. It makes sense that he's an NFL prospect, but goodness, it should be far more as a project than a projected franchise guy as a top 10 pick. I could see him being a third- or fourth-round selection, based on his physical skills and potential. But if you've watched him play at all, it's just impossible for me to think that highly paid NFL executives would look at his game film and conclude, "There's our first-round quarterback!"
Let's get into the numbers. The most interesting part is always comparing Levis to Sean Clifford, since Levis lost out on that quarterback battle and wound up transferring from Penn State to Kentucky following the 2020 season.
Check out these NCAA rankings for this season:
Sure, you could make a case based on the above numbers that Levis might have had a better season. But even that's debatable. Clifford's QBR (71.4) ranked 31st in the nation, according to ESPN, while Levis' QBR (61.3) was way down at No. 61.
But what the heck are we even talking about here? We're comparing Clifford, who has virtually no NFL draft hype and may never even make an NFL practice squad, with Levis, who is considered a first-round pick -- and the answer of who's better isn't even clear?
OK, fine. Let's say Levis is better. He has a better arm and a much higher ceiling. Let's give him every single benefit of the doubt, in every situation. It still makes very little sense that Levis would get so much love that he's looked upon as a top-10 pick.
In all honesty, I didn't get to watch Levis play much live this season, because I was covering Penn State games every Saturday and didn't have time to focus in on Kentucky. But over the past few days, I went and watched a good bit of Wildcat game footage to see if any of the hype about him could possibly be justified.
No.
It can't.
Levis doesn't seem to read defenses too well, isn't overly decisive and makes too many bad decisions with his throws. He got sacked 37 times playing behind a weak offensive line -- Clifford, by comparison, was sacked just 14 times -- and so Levis had an uphill climb trying to run the offense.
Kentucky got off to a 4-0 start and was ranked as high as No. 7, then the season collapsed and the Wildcats finished just 7-5. Levis battled turf toe and had to miss one game.
But goodness, check out his game log. Notice the horrendous game against Tennessee (98 yards passing, 3 INTs) in a 44-6 loss. And the godawful performance (109 yards passing, one INT) against Vanderbilt, which had lost 26 consecutive SEC games before it stunned Kentucky, 24-21 -- in Lexington, no less!
Does any of this look like a first-round draft pick? (Click on this link if the numbers in the graphic are too small.)
I have written extensively before that I don't believe James Franklin used Levis all that well when he was at Penn State. The coaches basically saw him as a running back who could also take snaps, and they never seemed to trust him throwing the ball.
Levis had a good year at Kentucky in 2021 (2,826 yards, 24 TDs) and led the Wildcats to 10 wins, so there was the natural question of whether Franklin made the right choice between Clifford and Levis. The fact that Levis has all this great NFL hype has made it easy to criticize Franklin for picking the wrong guy.
Could Penn State have done better the past two seasons with Levis playing instead of Clifford? Hey, the Lions are 10-2 and going to the Rose Bowl this year, so it's doubtful Levis could have done much better this season. And last year, Clifford was doing fine until he got hurt at Iowa, so who knows if Levis would have been better.
Still, the Clifford vs. Levis comparison at Penn State isn't really the issue I'm focused on. What boggles my mind is just how Levis, given his very pedestrian play this season, could still be considered such a good NFL prospect.
It's one thing if he's a great runner to go along with being a great passer, but Levis wasn't even very good on the ground this season. He finished with fewer yards rushing than Clifford (minus-107 for Levis because of all the sacks, to 177 for Clifford). Even if you take away the yards lost on sacks, Levis still only had 126 yards on 35 carries, while Clifford had 268 yards on 47 carries.
Again, I could see Levis playing in the NFL in some capacity because of his strong arm and running potential. There's no reason for me or anyone else to deny his physical talents. When he goes to the combine and throws in shorts, he's probably going to wow scouts with all of his -- say it with me -- tools!
But if there are NFL scouts out there who become so enamored by his tools while wearing shorts that they think enough of Levis to make him a top-10 pick, then you truly have to wonder whether those guys should have jobs as scouts.
