ALTOONA, Pa. -- Sixty-nine seconds. Six plays. Poof. Bye bye playoff hopes.
As we look back on this highly successful Penn State season, we cannot forget about those 69 seconds. They were not nice. At all.
But what if things had gone differently? What if those 69 seconds had played out like most of the other thousands and thousands of seconds during the season?
What if ...
That's where we'll start this week's edition of the Friday top 5.
1. Would Penn State have made the playoff had it beaten Ohio State?
This is a fascinating question, and we'll just never know the answer. All because of those fateful 69 seconds.
Penn State took a 21-16 lead against the Buckeyes on Kaytron Allen's 1-yard TD run with 9:26 to go at Beaver Stadium in week 8. Up to that point in the game, the Lions had outplayed Ohio State on both sides of the ball.
But in a span of 35 seconds -- using only three plays -- Ohio State stormed down the field against Penn State's outstanding defense and took a 23-21 lead on TreVeyon Henderson's 41-yard touchdown run with 8:51 to play.
On the second play of Penn State's ensuing possession, Sean Clifford was sacked by J.T. Tuimoloau and fumbled, with the Buckeye defender recovering at the Lions' 24. The stunning turn of events went from bad to atrocious one play later as C.J. Stroud hit Cade Stover for a 24-yard TD, giving the Buckeyes a 30-21 lead with 8:17 to play.
So, in 69 seconds, the Lions went from leading, 21-16, and playing great, to essentially done for, trailing 30-21. Ohio State kept up the late onslaught and went on to win, 44-31.
What if Penn State had gotten a defensive stop up 21-16?
What if Clifford hadn't fumbled after Ohio State scored? Could the Lions have come back with an answer to reclaim the lead?
Maybe Ohio State wins anyway, even without that crazy 69-second swing. Still, it doesn't change the fact that things slipped away so darn fast for Penn State.
The Buckeyes, of course, wound up making the College Football Playoff despite getting clobbered, 45-23, in the regular-season finale at home against Michigan.
Can we assume that if Penn State had won that game, then the Lions and not the Buckeyes would have been in the playoff?
Well, probably, but not necessarily. And it would have been a fascinating debate.
Georgia, Michigan and TCU all would have still made the playoff regardless, leaving one spot open.
That spot would have come down between Penn State and Alabama. The Lions would have been 11-1, while the Tide were 10-2.
The case for Penn State: It's a pretty simple case. The Lions would have had one less loss, and they would have had a sensational victory over the Buckeyes, who were ranked No. 2 at the time. That was far, far better than any win Alabama had.
The case against Penn State: The Lions got hammered at Michigan, while Alabama's two losses were by a combined four points on the road against Tennessee (52-49) and LSU (32-31 in OT). Furthermore, the Lions' win over Ohio State would not have looked as good once the Buckeyes got pounded by Michigan.
Look, I think it would have been ridiculous had an 11-1 Penn State not gotten in over a 10-2 Alabama. Losses have to matter. They just have to.
At the same time, I know the committee probably would have taken a major issue with Penn State getting destroyed in Ann Arbor, while both of Bama's losses came down to the final play. Yes, Ohio State did get in over Alabama despite a bad home loss to the Wolverines, so maybe the committee also would have overlooked Penn State's bad loss.
However, the Buckeyes had wins over Notre Dame and on the road at Penn State, two victories that gave them a better overall resume than Alabama. Penn State would have had only the one good win over Ohio State on its resume, with no other victories over top 25 teams.
Lastly, the SEC bias is and always has been real. And deservedly so, given how strong the conference has been for many years. Computer models love Alabama -- the Tide are currently No. 2 in ESPN's Football Power Index despite the two losses, while Penn State is No. 7. Would the Lions be ahead of Alabama in the analytics had they beaten Ohio State? We just don't know.
My conclusion is that, yes, the Lions would have made the playoff over Alabama had they beaten Ohio State and finished 11-1. It's just a shame that we'll never find out, all because everything slipped away so quickly in those 69 seconds.
2. Should we even be surprised by NCAA investigation of Harbaugh?
No. It's as simple as that.
Jim Harbaugh always has and always will come across as a shady, self-important guy who does and says weird things, so we cannot be surprised by anything that happens with him.
Published reports Thursday indicate Harbaugh may have misled NCAA investigators who were looking into potential recruiting violations. From Yahoo! Sports:
The program is also being investigated for four Level II violations, which are generally considered minor. They center on using too many coaches at practice sessions, meeting with two recruits during a COVID-19 dead period and watching player workouts over a video feed, according to a source.
The Level I allegation is that Harbaugh misled NCAA investigators when confronted with questions about the Level II allegations. A Level I violation could lead to significant recruiting restrictions or even a suspension for a number of games.
So, what happened here is that the NCAA allegedly caught Michigan breaking some minor rules, then Harbaugh allegedly may have lied about it.
He reportedly was uncooperative with investigators.
Harbaugh? Uncooperative? Isn't that like calling water wet?
The guy can coach. He can win. He kicked Penn State's butt this season. He got to the playoff for a second year in a row. Good for him. But goodness, he has got to be insufferable to be around, given how smarmy and dismissive he seems to be with everyone.
Coaches don't have to likable to be successful. But Harbaugh takes the cake when it comes to being unlikable.
Will any of this impact his decision to stay at Michigan or return to the NFL? I doubt it. He's got things rolling right now at Michigan, and he'll probably get away with just a slap on the wrist for all this NCAA stuff.
It would be surprising, after working so hard to bring Michigan back, if he were to walk away now just to try and resurrect some struggling NFL franchise.
3. Lions lose another player to transfer portal
Defensive lineman Fatorma Mulbah entered the portal Thursday, making the announcement on Twitter.
Thank you Penn State. I am forever grateful. pic.twitter.com/er3PWGNRg6
— Fatorma Mulbah (@Mulbah_55) January 5, 2023
Mulbah played primarily special teams and wasn't a major contributor on defense. He is, for all intents and purposes, the kind of player one would expect to enter the transfer portal as he seeks to make an impact on the field, something he wasn't likely to do at Penn State.
Mulbah was a 3-star recruit from Susquehanna Township High School in Harrisburg in the class of 2021. He was ranked as the No. 6 prospect in Pennsylvania that year.
He will have three years of eligibility remaining.
Mulbah is the sixth Penn State player to enter the transfer portal. None were major contributors on this year's team. The other five:
• QB Christian Veilleux (Pitt)
• DL Davon Townley
• CB Jeffery Davis Jr.
• DE Rodney McGraw (Louisville)
• OT Maleek McNeil
4. Championship game prediction
Georgia.
Big.
The Bulldogs are favored by 12.5 points. Take them to cover.
I honestly cannot believe TCU beat Michigan. That was beyond stunning. But I will say I didn't recognize that Michigan team at all, as the Wolverines' game plan didn't match up with what they did throughout the season. Harbaugh forgot he had a running team and strangely decided to just keep throwing the ball.
The game plan was as weird as Harbaugh.
5. What to look for coming up
I've still got my Penn State season report card -- lots and lots of good grades -- plus my way-too-early record prediction for next season and the five biggest question marks going forward.
There also will continue to be a lot about the Lions' wide receiver situation as the transfer portal window winds down.
And I've got a great basketball question we'll address next week.
