ALTOONA, Pa. -- There are great expectations for Penn State next season, and rightfully so, but that doesn't mean there aren't some major questions that must be answered for the Nittany Lions to live up to the hype.
When you're reading all of these, keep in mind what we're talking about here. These are concerns based on the expectations of a team that will be ranked in the top 10. They are expectations for a team that will be judged on whether it can beat Ohio State and Michigan -- not to go 10-2 again with no quality regular-season wins.
This won't be an unranked team coming off an 11-11 record over the previous two seasons that was thrilled to go 10-2 in the regular season despite losing its two biggest games.
No.
Next season will be judged on one thing and one thing only: Can the Lions compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff?
That's it. That's the expectation. That's what Penn State should want. That's what Penn State fans should want.
With that said, here are the five biggest questions that will determine if the Nittany Lions can make that happen.
1. Will Drew Allar be as good as everyone hopes and thinks he can be?
Try and make a list of highly rated quarterbacks who never lived up to their hype. In college and the pros. That list will be looooooooong.
Go make your list, then in four hours when you're done, come back and read the rest of this.
Hahahahaha. I kid, I kid.
Perhaps the biggest reason we have such great expectations for the next couple of years is because Allar is supposed to be awesome. If he is, that will be awesome for Penn State.
I'm already on record saying the Lions actually should reach the playoff and maybe even win the national title -- in 2024. Everything points to that team in two years possibly being tremendous, including the fact that Allar will be in his second season as the starter.
But what about Allar as a first-year starter? How confident can we truly be in ANY quarterback in that situation, where the weight of the world is on his shoulders and he will face more pressure than at any point in his life?
Whether anybody wants to hear it or not, the odds are it's more likely Allar will fail to live up to expectations next season than to be a superstar right off the bat. That's nothing personal against or even about him, it's just the way it is and would be true of any quarterback in his situation.
I don't know if Allar will be a star next season.
You don't know.
James Franklin doesn't know. He told me so at the Rose Bowl when I asked about if Allar is ready for everything that's about to come his way.
"Until you're truly sitting in that seat, you never truly know," Franklin said. "It's like being a head coach. Everybody thinks they know exactly what type of head coach you're going to be until you truly sit in that seat. Same thing at middle linebacker and so on.
"The experience we were able to get him this year has been really valuable. But until he truly sits in that seat, that's when we'll all know."
I am still of the opinion that Franklin erred badly in not getting Allar more meaningful snaps against good teams late in the season. Yes, Penn State won those games, won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 7. But I believe the Lions still could have done all of those things while getting Allar at least one or two strategic series in every game down the stretch.
Had Franklin done so, we would know more about what Allar is capable of, and he would know more about himself. But alas, there's no sense beating that dead horse any longer, because what's done is done.
Penn State opens next season against West Virginia. The Lions should win, but Allar will face situations in that game that he's never seen before going up against a major program. Delaware visits the following week, and that will be a slaughter.
Then Penn State goes to Illinois in week three. Wow, what a great test that will be for Allar. It will be his first road start, and he'll be going up against a well-coached team by Bret Bielema and most likely a tough defense. We all will learn a ton about Allar in that game, and he will learn a lot about himself and what it will take to be a standout quarterback in the Big Ten.
If he develops the way we all think he can, then the sky's the limit for Allar. Which, again, is why I believe year two for him as a starter in 2024 could be a special season.
As for next season, I just happen to believe we're going to see a lot of ups and downs as he learns what it takes to be a college quarterback and the face of the franchise.
2. Will the wide receivers be good enough?
NOTE: This section was written at about 5 p.m. Sunday, roughly two hours before all hell broke loose with the wide receiver situation. First, we got word that assistant coach Taylor Stubblefield had been fired, then shortly later came the huge news that Dante Cephas committed to Penn State. I'll leave up what I had originally written, so you can see what all was at stake before the news broke.
On paper, right now, I would say the answer is no.
Now again, keep in mind what I'm asking here, based on what I wrote earlier about how expectations have changed the way we have to look at everything.
Are the receivers currently on the team good enough to maybe go 10-2? Sure, I can concede that.
Are they good enough to beat Ohio State and Michigan?
No, I don't believe so.
Ohio State and Michigan are the standards. Every discussion about Penn State's potential has to be viewed through that lens. It's time to put up or shut up against those two teams, because those are the games that will determine the Lions' hopes of contending for a playoff spot.
I have made no secret of the fact that I don't believe KeAndre Lambert-Smith or anyone else currently on the roster is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in the Big Ten. If the Lions are going up against the Buckeyes and Wolverines with a No. 2 guy and a bunch of No. 3s, they're not winning those games.
Maybe Harrison Wallace III can make huge strides and be a star next year. Maybe Kaden Saunders can. Or maybe someone else. But those are gigantic maybes.
So far, Franklin has failed in the transfer portal this cycle. It's absolutely inexcusable that Penn State has failed to land a single transfer receiver, given what is at stake next season and the glaring need to give Allar as many weapons as possible.
There is still time for Franklin to get a big win in the portal, either in the coming days or the next transfer window in May. The potential savior could be Dante Cephas, who tweeted the following Sunday, which if my cryptogram reading skills are accurate, could mean that he is close to making a decision.
Yall ready?👀
— Dante Cephas (@FouLceph) January 15, 2023
I do still have doubts about whether Cephas is a No. 1 receiver in the Big Ten, but he very well could be, and Penn State would love to find out.
Let's get back to Allar here. If Penn State doesn't have enough major threats at the wide receiver spot, then the quarterback's development and potential for greatness will be hindered. Defenses will load up to stop Penn State's running game, and if that happens, then Allar will have to make everything happen, and he may not have the guys downfield to do that.
I can't imagine any other preseason top 10 team faces a bigger question mark at wide receiver right now than Penn State.
UPDATE: As I wrote here, the addition of Cephas changes a whole lot of things for next season. Whether or not he's a legit No. 1 Big Ten receiver remains to be seen, but simply adding him to the mix puts everyone in a better situation because now players may not have to be forced into roles they're not ready for or not capable of filling.
This is also outstanding news for Allar and his development.
It still would be good for Penn State to add another productive veteran wide receiver from the transfer portal if possible. If Franklin can pull that off, then he will have done a fantastic job of making sure this huge area of concern was addressed.
3. Can the defense withstand the losses of Porter and Brown?
Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is about to become the first Penn State defensive back ever to be drafted in the first round.
Safety Ji'Ayir Brown was the heart and soul of the defense and a very good college player.
Those two -- along with cornerback Kalen King -- helped form perhaps the best secondary in Penn State history, which is quite a moutfhul. The DBs took the passing game away from many opponents for large stretches of games, making all kinds of big plays and getting turnovers.
Manny Diaz was able to play his ultra aggressive style of defense because had two outstanding shutdown corners, and that made the jobs of the linemen and linebackers that much easier.
King will be the primary corner next season, and North Carolina transfer Storm Duck should be good. Still, you just don't lose two players the caliber of Porter and Brown and expect to be as strong in those areas the next season.
4. Will the special teams be special, or a special concern?
To beat teams like Ohio State or Michigan, it often comes down to little things such as a field goal, a punt, a return or some other special teams play.
The Lions are losing place-kicker Jake Pinegar, punter Barney Amor, punt returner Parker Washington and long snapper extraordinaire Chris Stoll.
Whew, that's a lot to replace. As of now, there's really no clear-cut starter in any of those positions, and the competitions could continue into the season. That's ... not a good thing.
Hey, Pinegar wasn't great. I get that. His decision to turn pro Saturday was met with a lot of ho-humness by the fan base. But he was a veteran, had kicked in big spots and was pretty good for most of the 2022 season. At this point, it's questionable if there's anyone as good as him on the roster.
If the Lions need a 45-yard field goal to beat Ohio State, how confident can anyone be right now that they have the guy who can make it?
Amor started off great in 2022, then tapered off to the point where he was even briefly replaced for one punt at Rutgers. Alex Bacchetta came on but fumbled the snap, although he caught a break when Rutgers was offsides.
There are a lot of good athletes in the program who potentially could become good punt returners. I'm thinking KLS would get the first crack at it.
5. Can Penn State win in Columbus?
I go into every season looking at where the Ohio State game is, and if it's in Columbus, then I don't have much faith that Penn State can win the Big Ten East.
The Lions visit the Horseshoe in week 7.
The Buckeyes will be a preseason top 5 team. They've recruited better than Penn State. They have to replace quarterback C.J. Stroud, but they've had zero problems finding their next QB for a long time.
I'll close by saying this one more time: Everything Penn State does has to be judged against Ohio State and Michigan. I don't think the Lions will win in Columbus, but that doesn't necessarily mean that would kill their playoff chances.
It would mean, however, they would have no margin for error against anyone else all season, because 10-2 probably won't make the playoff.
I've got a lot more on all of this stuff below in this week's We Are podcast.
