Assessing 2022 to build a blueprint for success in 2023 taken on the South Side (Steelers)

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Kenny Pickett.

The NFL's wild card weekend is over, and most of the final eight teams were expected to be in the mix at this time of the year.

Despite the strong finish to the season, the Steelers were never expected to be in this mix, which is why it's not surprising that they sat at home during the first round of the playoffs.

So, how can the Steelers build off of the 7-2 finish to the 2022 season and start competing with the class of the AFC? While the Jaguars benefited from playing in a much weaker division, the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals are all clearly ahead of the Steelers.

The good news is the team is in a better spot heading into this offseason than they were last offseason, even though Pittsburgh made the playoffs in 2021.

Let's take a look at what needs to take place over the next few months in order for the Steelers to have a realistic chance to compete:

FIXING THE OFFENSE

Regardless of what happens with Matt Canada and the offensive coordinator job, the Steelers have some work to do to upgrade the offense -- no matter who's calling the plays. Fortunately, they got some much needed answers at key positions in 2022.

First and foremost, Kenny Pickett played more than well enough to be the starter again in his second NFL season. The overall numbers weren't great by season's end, completing 63% of his passes for 2,404 yards, seven touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 76.7 passer rating.

However, six of those nine interceptions came in two games alone, including his first NFL game. After the bye in Week 9, Pickett threw only one interception the rest of the way, which included a streak a 145 passes without one. That's promising in and of itself considering two of those games were against the Ravens and a few others against teams such as the Saints, Colts and Browns that were strong in pass defense.

That being said, there is obviously room for Pickett to grow in his second season and the Steelers need him to take a step forward in order to get closer to contention. He got much better down the stretch at getting through his reads quicker and keeping his eyes downfield when he was forced out of the pocket. He'll need to continue that improvement in 2023, along with minimizing the frequency of throws that sail on him.

Even with the need for improvement, the Steelers saw enough out of Pickett that they don't have a question at quarterback heading into the second year without Ben Roethlisberger. That's perhaps the greatest achievement to come out of 2022. If Pickett eventually establishes himself as the next franchise quarterback, that's an absolute win for the organization.

However, another great achievement from 2022 was finding a legitimate No. 2 running back to complement Najee Harris, and it came in the form of an undrafted rookie out of Oklahoma State. Jaylen Warren turned a lot of heads in Latrobe, and even with some fumbling issues during training camp and the preseason, he earned that spot behind Harris to start the season.

Warren finished the season with 379 yards and one touchdown on 77 carries, an average on 4.9 yards per carry. He also provided Pickett a reliable check down option on third down, catching 28 passes for 214 yards with half of those receptions moving the chains. Like Harris, he hits the hole hard and finishes well through tackles. However, he's a bit more explosive and speedy than Harris, which is a perfect complement to Harris' power and athleticism.

The Steelers haven't had a legitimate 1-2 punch at running back since Le'Veon Bell and Deangelo Williams. But now, with Harris and Warren, they appear to have another productive duo. Harris regaining his health and Warren being able to frequently spell him paved the way for the team to average 146.0 rushing yards per game over the final nine games of the season. If they had run that effectively all year long, that would have ranked seventh in the NFL.

George Pickens emerged as a receiver with all the potential to blossom into a superstar. His blend of size, hands and body control gave defensive backs fits, especially on those back shoulder throws down the sideline that Pickett threw more often in the final few games of the season. And despite all the complaints about Diontae Johnson, he still led the team in catches and receiving yards in what was ultimately a disappointing season.

In Pickens and Johnson, Pickett has two different types of targets that can be reliable moving forward, not to mention a healthy Pat Freiermuth will always be a great option for Pickett to lean on in the red zone. Of course, Calvin Austin III hoped to be in the mix during his rookie season, but a Lisfranc injury derailed that before he even had a chance to play in a preseason game. He'll look to make up for lost time, though he'll still have a lot to prove during training camp and the preseason.

And that's where the offense has to improve the most in 2023 -- the red zone. The Steelers finished tied for 23rd in percentage of red zone trips that ended with a touchdown. It also didn't help that they were 16th in total trips to the red zone. Moving the ball wasn't much of a problem in the second half of the season, especially when Pittsburgh started running the ball more efficiently.

However, Pittsburgh also had far too many drives stall out just outside the red zone. One way to tell how big of a problem -- the Steelers led the NFL with 44 field goal attempts. They also led the NFL with 16 field goal attempts between 40-49 yards, which would put the line of scrimmage on those kicks anywhere between the opponents' 22- to 31-yard line. That's 16 times the Steelers moved the ball just to the outside of the red zone, only to come to a stand still.

In terms of the roster, the Steelers need to look at three positions to upgrade/deepen this offseason: Left tackle, wide receiver and center. Dan Moore Jr. is the main victim here, though he actually finished with a higher grade than Chukwuma Okorafor from the folks at Pro Football Focus among qualifying tackles. Both finished 61st and 63rd out of 83 tackles, so the Steelers not only need to bring in a tackle, but they might seriously consider opting out of Okorafor's contract as he carries a whopping $13,083,333 cap hit next season. If they do keep him under that contract, it'll need to be restructured.

Addressing left tackle in free agency or the draft gives the Steelers flexibility to either have Moore compete with Kevin Dotson at left guard, Okorafor at right tackle or become the swing tackle. The offensive line played very well down the stretch, and last offseason's free agent signings -- Mason Cole and James Daniels -- were pivotal in that improvement. However, this unit is still middle of the pack looking around the rest of the league. It needs another upgrade.

If the Steelers want to pay big bucks for a left tackle, Kansas City's Orlando Brown Jr. is set to be an unrestricted free agent. Most of the other top tackles on the market play on the right side. But Titans tackle Taylor Lewan is a veteran looking to bounce back from injuries and, with some risk, could be a cheaper option.

In the draft, Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr. could be a steal if he's available at 17th overall, but Northwestern's Peter Skoronski and Oklahoma's Anton Harrison are probably more realistic options if the Steelers want to address left tackle in the first round.

Center could be upgraded as well, but it shouldn't be a major priority. Cole was more than good enough and was a "hub of communication" for the newly-constructed offensive line, as Mike Tomlin put it. Left tackle is much more of a priority and so are some positions on defense (I'll get to those soon enough). Re-signing restricted free agent J.C. Hassenauer and/or adding a center in the middle rounds of the draft should be more than enough to beef up the middle of the line.

Pittsburgh could also really afford to add another receiver to the mix. No, they don't need to pay big money for a free agent, so any thoughts of chasing JuJu Smith-Schuster should be nipped in the bud now. But, they could really use another consistent weapon behind Johnson and Pickens. Anthony Miller, a standout in last year's training camp, has already been brought back on a one-year deal. If Steven Sims can be re-signed, he, Austin, Miller and Gunner Olszewski could compete for that slot receiver spot.

Although, don't completely rule out the idea of the Steelers drafting Jordan Addison in the first round of the NFL Draft. He is another potential playmaker and was Pickett's go-to man at Pitt before transferring to USC last season. There's still the Combine and team visits to go through, but that will be talked about over the next few months.

FIXING THE DEFENSE

The stalwarts on defense are T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward and team MVP Minkah Fitzpatrick. They all still perform at a high level. Keeping them healthy, especially Watt, is paramount. When these three are on the field, this defense has the potential to be one of the league's best.

Of course, every good defense needs more than three good players. The good news is both Alex Highsmith and Terrell Edmunds took huge steps forward in 2022. Highsmith led the Steelers with 14.5 sacks and tied for the league lead with five forced fumbles. Having a productive edge rusher opposite from Watt bodes very well for the pass rush.

Edmunds came back to Pittsburgh on a one-year "prove it" deal, and he delivered. He finished with 70 tackles and two sacks while providing tons of versatility as the deep safety, covering opposing tight ends in single coverage and helping out in run defense. Most of all, he was the perfect complement to Fitzpatrick, who turned in his third All-Pro season. Edmunds will get a significant pay raise from the $2.385 million he made in 2022, but the Steelers have to prioritize him in free agency. Best-case scenario is they re-sign him before he can hit the open market in mid-March.

Another strong performer on defense was Cam Sutton. Of the 67 qualifying cornerbacks, Sutton ranked fourth-best in the NFL in holding receivers to catching only 50.7% of targets when he was in coverage. And, he was sixth-best in the NFL with a 69.6 passer rating against. That will earn him a pay raise as well. Without him, the Steelers' rostered cornerbacks are William Jackson III, Levi Wallace, Ahkello Witherspoon, Arthur Maulet and Tre Norwood, though Norwood played more safety than cornerback last season.

There's a very strong chance that Jackson is cut to save $12 million in salary cap space, which thins out the position even more. Cornerback is a very high priority. Free agency could be very expensive, and bringing back Sutton would be a huge win as long as it comes with the return of Edmunds as well. But, there are plenty of options when the Steelers pick 17th overall this April. Illinois' Devon Witherspoon, Oregon's Christian Gonzalez, South Carolina's Cam Smith and Penn State's Joey Porter Jr. could be available when the Steelers are on the clock in the first round.

The Steelers were significantly better against the run in 2022 than they were the previous season when they finished dead last. Pittsburgh ranked seventh in run defense this season, and an improved defensive line played a key role. Heyward was joined by Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley, Tyson Alualu, Montravius Adams, Isaiahh Loudermilk and 2022 third-round pick DeMarvin Leal up front. Outside of Heyward, Wormley was the strongest performer, though he didn't play nearly as many snaps as Ogunjobi. Wormley's improved run defense helped an often banged up Ogunjobi, though he went down with a season-ending ACL tear in Week 14.

The problem is both Ogunjobi and Wormley are unrestricted free agents and Alualu could be retiring. While the Steelers liked Leal's versatility and growth, he still needs more time to develop before being handed a larger role.

In turn, the Steelers also need to make defensive tackle a high priority this spring. A reunion with Wormley isn't out of the question, and paying Ogunjobi anything close to the $8-million cap hit he absorbed last season would be a big risk. 

Yes, Javon Hargrave is an unrestricted free agent, but stop dreaming now. Even though the Steelers will have some cap space, I don't see a path for him to return to Pittsburgh. More affordable options in free agency could be Arizona's Zach Allen or the Jets' Sheldon Rankins, but this is a position that could yield some huge contracts this March. Overpaying is a must to land anyone of quality.

Again, the draft seems like a good place to address this position, though the studs of the class will be off the board before the Steelers pick at No. 17. Baylor's Siaki Ika, Michigan's Mazi Smith and Pitt's Calijah Kancey could all be available in the second round, and Pittsburgh holds both the 32nd and 49th overall picks.

There will be turnover at inside linebacker for the Steelers, though it's unclear just how much. Devin Bush will most likely sign elsewhere in free agency, Robert Spillane is also an unrestricted free agent and Myles Jack could be a cap casualty as the Steelers could save $8 million by opting out of his contract. Just for some form of continuity, there's a way either Spillane or Jack return to Pittsburgh in 2023.

However, the biggest opportunity to make a splash in free agency could come at this position. Tremaine Edmunds, Terrell's brother, will be an unrestricted free agent and will get a very hefty contract. For comparison, Baltimore just dished out a five-year, $100-million contract to Roquan Smith. Edmunds probably won't get that much, but's it's safe to assume an average annual value of $15 million will be the minimum. This could be the splash fans have wanted the Steelers to make for a long, long time, and would give the defense an elite coverage linebacker who also racks up tackles.

Imagine this in the middle of the Steelers' defense:

In addition to Edmunds, Tennessee's David Long, Philadelphia's T.J. Edwards and Cincinnati's Germaine Pratt are unrestricted free agents. This is a solid free agent class of inside linebackers. 

For now, the highest-graded linebackers in the draft won't come until close to the end of the first round, and could be available when the Steelers kick off Day 2 of the draft with the 32nd overall pick. Clemson's Trenton Simpson is the highest-graded linebacker, with Arkansas' Drew Sanders and Iowa's Jack Campbell as possibilities for when the Steelers pick 49th overall.

Even though the defense performed better than the offense in 2022, turnover and aging players provide more needs on that side of the ball. Of course, this team could just be one offensive coordinator away from being a legitimate playoff contender too.

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