A Pitt-Penn State matchup has never happened in the NCAA Tournament.
Perhaps, until 2023.
As each of the Panthers and Nittany Lions proceed into the final week of January, each team is doing so on the "bubble" to make the March field of 68. Projections within "Bracketology" over the last two months have envisioned the Panthers and Nittany Lions anywhere from a high-single-digit seed to a low-double-digit seed with the cutoff nearing the play-in tournament in the "First Four."
At least one NCAA Tournament predictor believes the Panthers and Lions could be on a historic clash in this season's First Four.
It's the first FIELDING THE 68 bracket of the season!
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) January 23, 2023
Which matchup would you like to see?
Contributors: @AndyBottoms, @Brad_Wachtel, @hardwiredsports and @RoccoMiller8 pic.twitter.com/1TBh6moLxW
"The Field of 68" believes the matchup could come to fruition in that format, with each team barely missing the cut for an automatic bye game as 12-seeds. The winner would go on to play 5-seed St. Mary's in the South region.
The last time Pitt and Penn State made the same NCAA Tournament was 2011. Top-seeded Pitt knocked off No. 16-seed UNC Asheville in the round of 64 but was upset by No. 8-seed Butler in the round of 32. Penn State bowed out as a 10-seed in the first round to 7-seed Temple in the round of 64.
Pitt and Penn State have reached the same NCAA Tournament twice: 2011 and 1991. In the 1991 NCAA Tournament, 13-seed Penn State upset 4-seed UCLA in the first round, but fell to 12-seed Eastern Michigan in overtime in the second round. Pitt survived as a 6-seed against 11-seed Georgia in the first round in overtime, but fell to 3-seed Kansas in the second round.
(Also note from that above graphic, a potential of a 12-seed Pitt and 4-seed TCU, coached by Jamie Dixon, could come to fruition in the round of 32.)
Penn State (13-6, 4-4 Big Ten) enters Tuesday ranked 49th in the updated-daily NCAA NET rankings. Pitt (13-7, 6-3 ACC) is 64th. Each have contrasting resumes.
The Nittany Lions are 2-4 in Quadrant 1 games, 1-2 in Quad 2, and a combined 10-0 in Quad 3 and 4.
The Panthers are 3-2 in Quad 1, 2-4 in Quad 2, and a combined 8-1 in Quad 3 and 4.
Penn State has a comparatatively worse record between Quad 1 and Quad 2, though it has played as tough of a schedule as Pitt has. Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Penn State (BPI 47) has the 60th-toughest schedule in college basketball, while Pitt (BPI 67) has played the 65th-toughest schedule.
Those are the analytics behind the placement of Pitt and Penn State. What would a potential matchup between the two look like?
Statistically speaking ...
• Points per game: Penn State 74.6, Pitt 74.1.
• Points allowed per game: Penn State 67.0, Pitt 67.7.
• Average scoring margin: Penn State +7.6, Pitt +6.4.
• Field goal percentage: Penn State 46.6%, Pitt 44.7%.
• 3-point percentage: Penn State 39.4%, Pitt 33.8%.
• Rebounds per game: Pitt 37.6, Penn State 33.5.
• Steals per game: Pitt 5.55, Penn State 5.05.
• Assist-to-turnover ratio: Penn State 1.66, Pitt 1.16.
• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): Penn State 114.2, Pitt 111.0.
• Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions): Penn State 98.7, Pitt 99.1.
• Leading scorer: Penn State's Jalen Pickett, 17.4 ppg.; Pitt's Jamarius Burton, 16.5 ppg.
• Leading rebounder: Penn State's Pickett, 7.9 rpg.; Pitt's Blake Hinson, 6.6 rpg.
Penn State and Pitt are comparable in many categories (though the Nittany Lions do outweigh Pitt slightly in nearly every one of them), and that is exactly what an NCAA Tournament committee will consider when it comes to Selection Sunday on March 12. Realistically speaking, it could come to fruition as a guaranteed or a first-round matchup in one of three ways: Inside the First Four, with one team being an 8-seed and the other being a 9-seed, or with one team being the 7-seed and the other being a 10-seed.
Here are where Pitt and Penn State currently rest within other current NCAA projections:
• ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Pitt as an 11-seed in the South region, opposing 6-seed Michigan State in Denver in the round of 64. He has Penn State as a 12-seed as his "last team in" and facing Kentucky in the First Four, with the winner opposing 5-seed Connecticut in Orlando in the Midwest region in the round of 64.
• CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has Pitt as the second team among his "last four out," while Penn State is tabbed as the second team among his "last four in." He has the Lions as an 11-seed opposing Arizona State in the First Four, with the winner advancing to face 6-seed Auburn in Greensboro, S.C. as part of the East region.
• NCAA.com's Andy Katz believes Pitt as an 11-seed in the West region, with a second-round bout against 6-seed Indiana. He has Penn State as a 12-seed and as a play-in team, with a First Four matchup against Southern California. The winner would advance into the South region and face 5-seed Baylor in the second round.
