In a final push for another Stanley Cup in the Sidney Crosby era, the Penguins re-signed Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to contracts with terms that will outlast their expiration dates as high-end players. And it was the right call. The alternative options on the NHL's open market were not only considerable downgrades, but just as pricy. They weren't getting better bang for their buck in the immediate term anywhere else.
In addition to improbably re-signing both Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, Ron Hextall retooled the team's defense corps by shipping out John Marino and Mike Matheson for Jeff Petry and Ty Smith after nabbing Jan Rutta on the first day of free agency.
In doing so, the Penguins made their bed coming into this season. That bed featured an uninspiring bottom six and no salary cap space to speak of. It was an undesirable-but-fine situation, so long as everything went according to plan.
Now, 49 games into the season and into this bye week, everything hasn't gone according to plan. Rather than affording themselves some wiggle room in the latter half of the season, they'll now have to grind for every single standings point in light of a legitimate possibility of missing the playoffs for the first time since Crosby's rookie season.
The new-look Penguins opened the season on fire, only to quickly turn around and lose seven in a row. A hot month followed the losing streak, but it's been an extremely rocky road ever since, including a separate six-game losing streak.
Coming off a crushing 6-4 loss to the tanking Sharks this past Saturday, the Penguins have lost more games than they've won, sporting a 24-16-9 record. They currently hold the second wild card spot (first wild card spot by points percentage) in the Eastern Conference, but the Sabres, Islanders and Panthers are all within striking distance. Even though the loss to San Jose came directly after a points streak of six games, it might stand as the low point of the season.
The Penguins' challenges continue to stack without any indication they'll be properly addressed -- if it's even possible -- to get them back in the conversation among the teams with potential to go on a run.
Tristan Jarry remains out with an upper-body injury, but the injury excuse doesn't hold much weight anymore. Letang and Petry have returned to the lineup, and the entirety of the top six has remained remarkably healthy all season, yet things don't seem to be getting any better.
Inconsistency has been the story of the season, and it continues to come in a variety of ways. Sometimes it's been an utter inability to defend, other times it's been bone-headed puck-management. And on far too many occasions, the Penguins have simply stumbled through the first few minutes of the game, only to turn it on when it's too late.
Mike Sullivan frequently talks about being a hard team to play against, but nothing about this team makes life difficult for the opposition on a shift-to-shift, game-to-game basis. They have flashes of it, sure, and even seem capable of playing that way when they so choose, but it doesn't happen nearly enough. Because they're the league's oldest team, there's an argument to be made that they're waiting to flip a switch -- and they did just that last postseason -- but that seems like wishful thinking in an attempt to ignore reality.
Sullivan and the players always have the right things to say in the face of adversity. They'll say exactly what needs to happen to turn things around. But we're well past the point of lip service. It's got to be backed up on the ice. Whatever they might be saying, if they keep trying to show you who they are, let them.
Hockey's a whacky sport that can lead all of us to overthink things at times, but the Penguins' situation needs no overthinking. They're a top-heavy team, riddled with flaws throughout, that seems reluctant to accept they aren't quite as good as they think they are.
• On a positive note, perhaps the Penguins' most redeeming quality is their ability to create quality chances at 5-on-5. The 2.99 expected goals per hour they generate ranks third in the NHL, per Evolving-Hockey. That is diminished quite a bit by finishing struggles that have carried over from last season, though. Despite their strong expected goals rate, their rate of actual goals scored at 5-on-5 checks in at just 2.53 per hour, 16th in the NHL. That stings a bit more because two of the players who are creating a good chunk of their offense are among those struggling to finish. Jake Guentzel has scored more than two fewer goals than expected based on the quality of his chances. Bryan Rust has scored seven fewer goals than expected. Even Jason Zucker, who's having a great season no matter what his production looks like, has scored more than two fewer goals than expected. Throw in Jeff Carter and Marcus Pettersson, who have combined for another eight fewer goals than expected, and you've accounted for almost 20 goals that never wound up on the board. If the Penguins reaped the benefits of even half of those goals, they'd be under much less pressure at this juncture.
• Last season, the Penguins undeniably had some net-front issues in their own end, but were overall a pretty strong defensive team. The decision to get a bit heftier on the back end over the offseason has not brought the change Hextall initially hoped for. The Penguins' defensive issues stem from multiple roots, but it's been a little jarring just how easily their defensive coverage is broken down and manipulated with regularity. That goes for strong and weak opponents alike. Surrendering 2.73 expected goals against per hour at 5-on-5, the Penguins rank 22nd in the league at suppressing the opposition's attack, one spot ahead of the Flyers. They're the only team in the bottom-13 of that metric to currently hold a playoff spot. It's not entirely due to massive screwups leading to high-danger chances against, either. They're giving up a ton of shot volume, ranking 26th by allowing 32.2 shots against per hour at 5-on-5. Unsurprisingly, the other teams accompanying them in that region aren't anywhere close to contention.
• The players will tell you as much themselves, but the Penguins have been considerably worse defensively in front of Casey DeSmith than they've been in front of Jarry. DeSmith faces a higher rate of shots against and a much higher rate of shots against from the net-front and slot area. I've seen several arguments suggesting that's due to DeSmith's rebound control, but that isn't the case. Believe it or not, he actually allows fewer rebounds per shot than Jarry. One would think the Penguins would do their best to clamp down in front of their backup, but it seems his presence only makes them skittish. DeSmith is a backup and nothing more, so of course his performance is going to stick out like a sore thumb in Jarry's absence. That said, DeSmith, like the team in front of him, has been wildly inconsistent from game-to-game. I still wouldn't waste what little organizational resources are available to go out and acquire a goalie before this season's deadline, but with Jarry's ability to stay healthy being an understandable concern, it's far from all roses in the crease.
• What a shame it would be if the Penguins end up squandering what might be Crosby's last truly great season. I'm not suggesting he'll fall off a cliff next season, but it's impressive what he's done to this point, and that's keeping in mind that he's gone through a couple of stretches in which he didn't look quite like himself. Riding a seven-game point streak, Crosby's now pacing for 40 goals and 100 points over a full season. The latter figure has been achieved just five times in NHL history by a player 35 or older, and only twice since 1976. With his power-play production finally picking up of late, there's a chance he'll even surpass those figures.
• Malkin isn't what he once was, but what he is right now is still a high-end driver of quality offense with lethal individual finishing ability. And although he's guilty of glaring mistakes on occasion, his defensive impact is the best it's been in seasons. Remember last offseason hearing endlessly about Malkin's 5-on-5 demise because his linemates couldn't put the puck in the net? In a shock to absolutely no one who's been paying attention, Malkin's primary assist rate at 5-on-5 has more than doubled from last season. His production is buoyed a bit thanks to averaging a power-play point every other game, but he's at 50 points in 49 games with sparkling on-ice metrics as a 36-year-old. It'd be shame if the Penguins squander that, too.
• I've teetered back and forth with how much it really matters which center Rust and Rickard Rakell play with, but the Penguins have reached the point that they can't afford not to push every single button that gives them a competitive advantage due to near-nonexistent contributions from the bottom six. Pushing the right buttons means putting the most effective lines and combos together, which would entail Rakell playing on the top line with Crosby and Rust playing on the second line with Malkin. Up until the third period Saturday, Rakell with Crosby and Rust with Malkin hadn't been visited in quite some time. Crosby unquestionably prefers playing with Rust, but the results the other way around -- for both lines -- are too strong to ignore. If you have to rely on the top of your lineup as much as the Penguins do, you have to put them in the best possible position to find success. The Penguins' best stretch of games this season came with Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell and Zucker-Malkin-Rust. I don't see any reason not to commit to those lines again.
• Speaking of that bottom six, it features what has to be one of the worst third lines in all of hockey. Moving Carter to the wing was a necessary change, but his performance is still nowhere near good enough. I figured there was an avenue to leveraging his willingness to shoot from the wing. That hasn't really been the case so far. His foot-speed is severely diminished from even just a year ago, and his hands are gone. It's a struggle for him to make the simplest of plays, and his lack of pace allows opponents to easily goad him to the perimeter in transition before sealing him off along the wall. After starting the season with three points at 5-on-5 in his first four games, Carter has totaled just five points at 5-on-5 in 42 games since. It's not just him, though. Brock McGinn has no points at 5-on-5 in his last 18 games, and Teddy Blueger has just one 5-on-5 point in his last 28. Oh, and by the way, Blueger has one goal all season. It's one thing for the bottom six not to score, it's something else for them to consistently get out-possessed and out-chanced, putting an even bigger burden on the players at the top of the lineup. Then again, each member of the third line is miscast to no fault of their own.
• Sullivan loves Brian Dumoulin and respects the hell out of him. Thinks there's still a solid player somewhere in there, too. But his loyalty to Dumoulin has been coming back to bite the Penguins throughout the season, and it's going to continue to do so unless his minutes are pulled back.
• He's coming off his worst game, but what a season Pettersson's had. He's maintained his elite defensive impacts while enjoying a huge boost in his offensive impacts, all while taking on more minutes and tougher competition than ever before. He's a really, really good defenseman, but it's also probably not the greatest thing in the world if he's your team's best player on the blue line. And that's what he's been this season. If his game takes a step back down the stretch, it'll only spell more trouble.
• Does Hextall have what it takes to right his mistakes? Or even so much as come to terms with his mistakes? It's slightly troubling that the person who played a big part in creating many of the Penguins' problems is the same person who will be tasked with fixing them. I'm not convinced anything significant is on the way. Hextall's had some home runs with the Penguins, but just as many -- if not more -- swings and misses. Only time will tell which one's coming next.
• It's been an absolute whirlwind of a season to this point. Thanks, as always, for following along with us. Can't wait to see what's in store the rest of the way.
