In just a little more than a month, unrestricted free agents will be able to start negotiations with any NFL team. The Steelers have plenty of holes to address on their roster, beginning with their own free agents.
But, how much might it cost to retain some of their own players -- before they even entertain external options to improve the team in 2023?
One may or may not be more important than the other, but it's pretty safe to say that the two most important players the Steelers need to re-sign are Terrell Edmunds and Cam Sutton.
Edmunds proved himself worthy of a multiyear contract after taking a chance on himself with a one-year "prove it" deal in 2022. Also, Sutton has the rare blend of versatility, experience and is trending upwards in terms of overall performance. He will be a hot commodity in free agency.
One thing is for certain regarding both players: The Steelers will have to give them significant pay raises. Last season, Sutton carried a $5.2-million cap hit and Edmunds' was only $1.118 million. While projections are hardly the most accurate way to know exactly how much a player will make on the market, it at least gives us a barometer for the Steelers' outlook and approach to how they handle free agency.
According to Spotrac, Sutton is projected to earn a three-year, $22.9-million contract, with an average annual value (AAV) of $7.6 million. Pro Football Focus actually projects Sutton to make a little more with a three-year, $25.5-million contract, an AAV of $8.5 million. Based on the competitiveness of the market and Sutton's versatility to play outside or in the slot, it's safe to assume it will take the more expensive contract to bring him back to Pittsburgh.
Regarding Edmunds, Spotrac projects him to earn a two-year, $10.905-million contract, an AAV of $5.4 million. I think that's probably a tad low, but maybe the Steelers sign him to a contract with a similar AAV if they add a third year. After all, Edmunds is only 26 years old. The risk for a three-year deal isn't nearly as high as it will be in a year or two.
Although I wouldn't consider him to be quite as high of a priority as Edmunds or Sutton, Larry Ogunjobi might be another player the Steelers try to bring back in order to keep the defensive line somewhat intact. The Steelers drastically improved against the run last season, and any failure to keep the depth they have at the position could result in a step backwards. I don't need to explain that the Steelers can't afford any regression in any area of the roster.
However, in order to bring back Ogunjobi, it's going to cost some money. Spotrac and PFF are in very different arenas when projecting what Ogunjobi can make on the open market. Spotrac projects a two-year, $6.9-million contract ($3.45-million AAV) while PFF projects a three-year, $30-million contract ($10-million AAV).
Of course, there is some risk regarding Ogunjobi, which explains why it's so difficult to project what type of a contract he'll earn. He's a very good player in the interior of the defensive line when he's healthy, both in terms of clogging up the middle in the run game and applying pressure on the quarterback (70 quarterback pressures over the past two seasons, according to PFF).
However, he spent the majority of the 2022 season banged up with various injuries. And, for those who might not remember, Ogunjobi only landed in Pittsburgh because his three-year, $45-million deal with the Bears fell through due to concern over a foot injury sustained in the latter stages of the 2021 season.
The other variable that plays a role in what type of a contract Ogunjobi will earn is what the rest of the position will make on the open market, and that doesn't bode well for the Steelers. From everything I've heard, this is going to be a spring in which interior defenders are paid handsomely. More teams shifted toward a run-centric focus, and it paid off for teams such as the Giants. With defenses smaller and faster than they've ever been before to defend passing attacks and spread offenses, there is a higher premium for stout interior defenders, which drives up the cost. So, once again, I have reason to believe the PFF projection is probably more realistic than the Spotrac projection.
Plus, when trying to gauge a barometer for how much it might cost to keep players, it's better to go with the more expensive projection. That way, in case it costs less money, it's only a good thing for the Steelers.
Just between these three important players, it could cost around $23.9 million per year. That's not counting any other players that could be re-signed, negotiating a contract extension for Alex Highsmith heading into the final year of his rookie deal or actually surveying the open market for new blood. And, as we stand in early February, the Steelers have approximately $331,113 of cap space for 2023, according to Spotrac.
Of course, there are moves to consider to free up space, starting with some potential cap casualties such as William Jackson III, which would immediately save $12.176 million. In addition, Omar Khan could structure any new contracts so the cap hits are lesser in the first year or two, but there are other variables to consider.
In addition to the aforementioned cap casualties, some of the larger existing contracts could be restructured to create even more cap space. However, there isn't a ton of room to be too cavalier with this approach. All this does is move money toward future seasons to create cap space in the current year.
For example, let's take a look at T.J. Watt's contract, the largest on the team. Watt has three years remaining on his deal, carrying a cap hit of $29,368,694 in 2023 and $30,418,694 in each of the 2024 and 2025 seasons. The Steelers could approach Watt about a full restructure of his contract to save up to $12.6 million in cap space in 2023, according to OverTheCap.com. However, that money would be evenly distributed over the final two years of his deal, making his cap hit in those seasons well over $36 million.
Now, the Steelers don't have to do a full restructure, and there will likely be some sort of other restructuring done to create space. Minkah Fitzpatrick's new contract will be restructured at some point, and the Steelers could save up to as much as $10.1 million by doing a full restructure. Cam Heyward, despite his age, could also be restructured or possibly even extended an extra year to bring down his cap hit.
FINAL THOUGHTS
There is the potential for room to do all of the necessary things to improve the team in 2023. Based on the projections for Edmunds, Sutton and Ogunjobi -- even at their most expensive projection -- Khan could realistically bring all of them back just by cutting Jackson and doing simple restructures of Watt and Fitzpatrick's contracts. That's the good news for the Steelers, and if they found a way to bring all three back, it would make everything else they do in free agency and the draft much easier.
The trick will be finding more cap space to bring in a couple of impact free agents to upgrade some areas of need. I've stressed multiple times that inside linebacker should be the focus in free agency since it is a deep class -- much deeper than what the draft will provide in April. Names such as Lavonte David, David Long, Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards highlight the free agent group and will cost anywhere between $10-15 million per season, perhaps even more. Roquan Smith signed a contract extension earlier this offseason that's worth $20 million per year, and you can bet the agents of these players took note of that.
However, there are other viable options that will cost a bit less, such as Leighton Vander Esch, Bobby Okereke, Germaine Pratt, Drue Tranquill and Alex Singleton. It wouldn't be surprising for the Steelers to shop in the second tier since they probably want to allocate their dollars beyond just one position. Pratt is an interesting name here given his familiarity within the AFC North and his superb performance in pass coverage.
With several important players on offense under rookie contracts, including quarterback Kenny Pickett for another four seasons, the Steelers do have flexibility to add a couple names in free agency that can help round out the 2023 roster.
However, it's important to remember that success in 2023 and beyond should not and will not rely on free agency. The Steelers must have a strong draft, and having an extra selection in the second round should help considerably. In addition, the growth of those younger players on offense will be the ultimate decider in just how good this team could be.
