The Pirates' spring training is set to open Wednesday in Bradenton, Fla., with the first formal workout for pitchers and catchers.
To build up toward the start of another season, we will be projecting the potential opening day lineup and the rotation. And we start on offense, where the Pirates ranked near the bottom of the National League in most team stats, but are fielding a noticeably better roster. What could Derek Shelton's opening day lineup look like?
THE OPENING DAY LINEUP
1. ONEIL CRUZ, SS
Where do you hit a player like Cruz? I have him batting leadoff to maximize his at-bats and let his speed play on the basepaths, but there are plenty of other reasonable places to bat him. New school thinking says you should put your best hitter second. Over 100 years of baseball thinking says you put that big bat third. The cleanup spot is perfect for someone who can clear the bases. Perhaps it's better to let the veterans hit in front of him and bat him fifth or sixth. It's a wide net. If he takes a step forward like he showed at the end of last year, people aren't going to care where he hits and will just want to watch him hit.
2. KE'BRYAN HAYES, 3B
It's now been two straight years Hayes has been hampered with an injury, impacting his offensive production. He's an elite defender and could still be a plus hitter. But if he's not healthy and doesn't produce this year, will it ever happen?
3. BRYAN REYNOLDS, CR
He's still here. He's still Reynolds. You know what you're getting here. The 2023 team is better because he's a part of it.
4. CARLOS SANTANA, 1B
The Pirates are banking on the new infield shift rules really benefiting Santana, whose peripherals were much better than his actual results last year while being the most heavily-shifted player in the game.
5. ANDREW MCCUTCHEN, LF
Yeah, McCutchen is going to be in that home opener lineup. He also is going to get reps as the designated hitter, but with two veteran first baseman on the roster, he's going to need to play some outfield.
6. JI-MAN CHOI, DH
Choi was the first the Pirates' offseason additions, and he seems to be positioned to be used more as a platoon again. As for how often he plays first compared to Santana, it is probably going to come down how his right elbow is after his offseason surgery.
7. RODOLFO CASTRO, 2B
This is far from a guarantee, but I named Castro as a breakout candidate because of his strong finish. He has the potential to be a plus hitter at a premium position and form one of the best hitting double-play duos in the sport. He's the front runner going into camp.
8. JACK SUWINSKI, RF
Wow, it feels weird to put Suwinski all the way in the No. 8 spot in the order. I'm not feeling that optimistic about this one, honestly, but it has to be a good sign if there are seven or so hitters who project to be better than Suwinski, who was one of the best hitters on last year's club (albeit incredibly streaky). If he learns to hit left-handers -- or on the road -- then I don't see him sticking in this spot.
9. AUSTIN HEDGES, C
I do, however, feel pretty confident batting Hedges ninth. The only way I see him batting eighth is if Ji Hwan Bae earns a starting job and Shelton opts to bat him ninth, giving the Pirates what is effectively a second leadoff hitter. Hedges is here for his exemplary defense and management of the pitching staff, not his bat. There's a decent chance he doesn't finish the year the starter.
THE BENCH
JI HWAN BAE, UTL
Bae's got a couple opportunities to win a spot in the opening day roster. Second base is up for grabs, and while the Pirates have plenty of outfield options, he could play there too. He's on the bench for now, but he has plenty of runway to get into the lineup, either at one position or bouncing around the diamond.
CONNOR JOE, 1B/OF
The Pirates haven't had much luck finding right-handed hitters in recent years, and Joe took a step back after seeming to enjoy a breakout campaign in 2021. He does a great job controlling the zone and doesn't whiff much, so he should provide a good on-base percentage if nothing else.
TUCUPITA MARCANO, UTL
Of all the predictions on this list, I'm the least confident here. Marcano checks a lot of the same boxes as Bae -- left-handed contact hitter whose value comes from getting on base, defensive versatility and ability to run the bases -- so is it redundant to put him on the list. Is it better to give a look to one of the various outfielders If the Pirates are willing to open up a roster spot, I could see Miguel Andújar or Chris Owings making a case as defensively versatile players who are at least right-handed. You also can't rule out the possibility of the Pirates picking up someone off waivers or making a minor trade. But rather than think in hypotheticals, I'll give the nod to Marcano, who has only one option year remaining and is entering a pivotal age 23 season.
TYLER HEINEMAN, C
For the fourth straight year, the backup catcher job is up for grabs in spring training. This group between Heineman, Jason Delay and Kevin Plawecki looks better than last year's offerings -- I wouldn't expect the Pirates to sign someone like Andrew Knapp just ahead of the regular season again -- but they don't compare to the prospects on the horizon. Still, I'll go with Heineman for now since he's the veteran and has minor-league options remaining.
OTHER PLAYERS ON THE 40 MAN ROSTER
ENDY RODRIGUEZ, C
Shelton said during the winter meetings that neither Rodriguez nor Henry Davis will make the opening day team. Both are expected to get their call to the big leagues this year. Until then, just enjoy seeing him for the first part of spring training and think about what a June or July lineup could look like with them in it.
LIOVER PEGUERO, SS
Peguero made his major-league debut in 2022 because of a COVID-19 scare last year, but last year was not the big leap forward many hoped. He has the tools to be a big-league middle infielder and he's still only 22, meaning there's plenty of room for him to grow, but it's hard to ignore that his stock has taken a hit in just about every top prospect list.
JARED TRIOLO, 3B/UTL
A potentially elite defender at third base, Triolo began bouncing around the diamond at shortstop and center field in games last year. He could potentially play any position besides catcher, making him a really good utility option. But for someone who didn't get a late season call-up to Class AAA because of a left knee injury, it seems pretty safe to assume he'll start in the minors, especially since Bae or Marcano could assume the utility role to start the year.
CAL MITCHELL, OF
And now we move to the left-hand hitting outfielders. Mitchell's .267/.361/.373 with 11 walks in 86 plate appearances as a September call up last year, which paired with his tear in the minors in August gave him a much-needed strong finish to the 2022 season. Can he continue to control the zone and draw those walks in 2023, and more importantly, can he take advantage of that short right field porch at PNC Park?
CANAAN SMITH-NJIGBA, OF
Smith-Njigba was the subject of a recent Mound Visit, which you can read here. He excelled in the minors last year, he doesn't whiff much and he has some of the best exit velocities in the organizations. Have to wonder what his standing would be on the team if his season didn't end in June because he broke his right wrist.
TRAVIS SWAGGERTY, OF
Last year was an odd one for Swaggerty, who barely got a cup of coffee in the majors and was sent back down to Indianapolis without much instruction of what the big-league coaches wanted him to focus on while there. He's a former first-round pick and is a strong base runner and defender. Can he hit enough to separate himself from this group of young outfielders?
RYAN VILADE, OF
Vilade has some raw pop (maxed out with a 110.3 mph exit velocity in the minors last year), but the report I got on him said he has a flat swing path and he has trouble lifting pull side, meaning he isn't taking advantage of that strength. A waiver claim back in November, the Pirates kept him on the roster all winter. Perhaps they can help him start elevating the ball.
Tuesday: Rotation/bullpen
