The Steelers' offense didn't excel at a lot of things in 2022. However, as they found their identity with a vastly improved running game, another major improvement helped the offense do more over the final nine games of the season.
The offense converted 44.9% of their third down attempts in 2022. Only six offenses were better. All six of those teams that ranked ahead of the Steelers made the playoffs and collectively -- Buffalo, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas and San Francisco -- finished the season with an 88-22 record. There is a very strong argument that these are the best six teams in the NFL with the Chiefs and Eagles set to square off in the Super Bowl after eliminating Cincinnati and San Francisco last week.
From their bye in Week 9, the Steelers' offense converted 70 of 129 third down attempts. That is a 54.2% conversion rate over their final nine games. To put that in perspective, Buffalo led the NFL last year by converting 50.7% of their attempts on third downs.
That is terrific. There is no denying that. Converting third downs in the NFL is very difficult. Kenny Pickett showed an aptitude for moving the chains during the second half of the season on third-and-long situations.
The Steelers have a strong array of weapons for Pickett to throw to in these situations that can attack all over the field. Najee Harris is a very powerful back with excellent short yardage capabilities, and Pickett’s ability to run the football -- either as a quarterback sneak or off script -- was also extremely valuable on third downs. The Steelers' offensive line also ranked first in the NFL in Football Outsiders "Power Rank," a metric they define as "Percentage of runs on third or fourth downs, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.”
This video should bring back memories, especially for Pitt fans. While it is a fun watch, it is also an excellent indicator that Pickett is capable of breaking off long runs. His pure speed and open field vision are two under-appreciated aspects of his game.
Putting this on tape for their final nine games is a great foundation to build upon. But folks, it probably isn’t sustainable. Are the Steelers really going to continue to convert third downs at a better rate than any offense in the league by four percent? They are not.
The Steelers snapped the ball on third down 13.9 times per game last year. Only the Chargers, Buccaneers and Jets were higher. Those are three very talented offenses that were mostly broken last year for a multitude of reasons. 30.8% of all the Steelers first downs gained were achieved on third downs. Only the Bears, one of the very worst offenses in the league, and the Chargers had a higher percentage.
The Steelers also averaged 6.5 yards to go on third downs. While that sounds like a huge number, only seven offenses had easier third down situations. It was like the Steelers entire goal was just to get to third and manageable. That isn’t a winning formula in today’s NFL, although it worked last year, which again, is quite impressive.
The Steelers absolutely must create more explosive plays. That must be the No. 1 goal of the offense this offseason and going into next year. If we define explosive plays as runs of 10-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards, the Steelers had 53 such runs and 44 such passes, giving them 97 explosive plays overall. That ended up 16th in explosive rushes and 24th in explosive pass plays. But, only 10 offenses had fewer total explosives overall.
That might not be as awful as you imagined, but let’s change the perameters a bit. Now, if we look at run plays of 20-plus yards and pass plays of 40-plus yards, it gets much uglier for the offense. Pittsburgh had just eight such runs and only three such receptions. Only seven offenses were worse with such run plays and the Steelers were dead last in such pass plays. These 11 plays combined was lowest in the league. When factoring in the number of total offensive plays every team ran last year, only Tampa Bay created such a play at a lower rate than the Steelers.
Here is another fun watch and a great memory from George Pickens' rookie year. Unfortunately, long downfield completions were few and far between for the Steelers last year. But, you’ll have a tough time convincing anyone that Pickens isn’t highly capable in this area.
Pickett completed 38.3% of his passes 20 yards downfield or longer. He attempted 47 of these throws out of his 389 total pass attempts, most of which were "go" routes. His completion percentage ranks 18th out of quarterbacks with at least 25 of such attempts, just behind Mitch Trubisky and Daniel Jones, and just ahead of Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts.
Where is the root of this problem? Certainly, scheme and play calling are part of the issue. But, the Steelers were also working with a rookie quarterback and extremely young offensive personnel overall. With the Steelers really set to not lose one prominent member from their offense this offseason, there should be hope that this situation greatly improves in 2023.
In addition, they also might just add another dynamic downfield option as well as better pass protection. The protection was not a big problem area. But, more so than most offenses, the Steelers helped their offensive tackles in this phase. Maybe adding more offensive line talent will allow the offense to get more receivers open in routes downfield.
The Steelers discovered their offensive identity in the second half of the season. That is a tremendous start to building a great offense. Now, it must take the next step to really be in line with the top teams in the NFL. The Steelers absolutely need to create more first downs on early downs as well as more explosive plays overall.
