The Penguins as sellers leading up to the March 3 NHL trade deadline?
It's a fair question to ponder considering they've now lost one more game than they've won en route to a mediocre plus-4 goal differential 55 games into the season.
But let's get one thing out of the way right here, right now: This team is not going to be a seller with Sidney Crosby chugging along the way he is.
And that was -- rightfully -- decided last summer.
Each of Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell were signed to contracts carrying considerable term. The Penguins won't be remotely competitive toward the latter stages of those contracts. The individual players themselves won't be very good by that time, at least relative to their cap hits.
So why were those contracts signed, exactly?
Aside from being better -- and cheaper -- alternatives in the immediate term to anything the Penguins would've had to scrounge up on the open market, those players sticking around signaled a final push for a Stanley Cup in the Crosby era.
We're looking at a bed that's been made. That's not going to change no matter what happens on the ice in the next two weeks. To punt on a season less than a year after signing those contracts? To punt on what might be Crosby's last truly great season? To punt on what might be Malkin's last season as a point-per-game player? That's not gonna fly.
"I certainly hope not."
That was Hextall's response Feb. 5 when asked about the possibility of selling at the trade deadline. His club has gone 3-3 since then. He's not going to shift his mindset after such a stretch, and I don't blame him.
In just about every other scenario, I'd agree with the masses to chalk this up as a lost season. The team's depth is shot, can't get its best goaltender in the net and, really, it just looks like any sort of meaningful run is out of the question. But the Penguins' situation is anything but ordinary.
I'm not expecting some significant drop-off from Crosby as soon as next season, but it's a relatively safe assumption that he won't be at this level again. Another two seasons from now? Who knows what could happen by then.
Should Crosby's greatness be squandered in favor of a first-round pick that won't see the NHL until 2028, if they ever make it at all? I know how great it sounds to start stockpiling the system, but let me assure you, no matter how deep this next draft might be, the Penguins' upcoming first-rounder will not be saving the franchise from inevitable doom down the line.
Things are going to get way, way uglier, and trying to avoid that sounds just as silly to me as it does not to sell right now for many of you.
Really want to miss out on Crosby in the playoffs once more so that the team finishes 24th in the league instead of 30th five years from now? Because that's really what's being suggested when it comes to making a claim for them to sell at the deadline.
There is no re-tooling to get younger and faster at this juncture. It doesn't happen from one season to the next. It takes a long, long time. The process of doing so would exceed the time that the core has left as top players.
It's still the time to keep pushing for that last run. It would be general manager malpractice not to try.
If -- and it's a big if -- the Penguins do what needs to be done by significantly diminishing or eliminating Jeff Carter's role, along with trading for a decent third-line center with the ability to drive play, this suddenly turns into a much different team. I think many of us are underestimating the impact of going from a player who is a considerable drag on everything other than taking faceoffs, to one who is positively influencing possession and scoring at both ends of the rink.
Suddenly, it goes from the worst third line in hockey to one that can alleviate pressure from the top of the lineup, and that's significant.
Then again, none of it matters if Tristan Jarry isn't healthy and playing. But even though he's been dealing with this mystery injury, I suspect he'll be back sooner than later. Availability is often the best ability, but don't forget the Penguins are 16-5-5 with him in the crease.
The general outlook is bleak. However, I still see a path forward -- if navigated correctly -- in which the Penguins can put themselves back in the conversation, at least to the point that it'd be worth watching the stars with one more opportunity in their hands.
From everything I've gathered, Hextall wants to hang onto the first-round pick, but would be willing to move it in the right deal. He explicitly said the pick isn't on the table when it comes to shedding salary.
He should reconsider.
The Penguins have virtually no cap space and will need to shed salary off the NHL roster to bring another player in. The problem, of course, is that the players they'd like to move out either have no-movement clauses or make too much money, effectively turning them into undesirable assets.
If Hextall can get out from under Brock McGinn and his $2.75 million cap hit for the next two seasons by dishing out the pick in a larger deal, do it. I'm not suggesting going all willy-nilly here and moving the pick for the sake of it, but it should be heavily shopped.
It would force Hextall to walk back on one of his offseason signings, but Jan Rutta is another player who I'd heavily consider shopping to free up cap space. He's a fine player, but an unnecessary luxury on the Penguins' third defense pairing. Chad Ruhwedel and Mark Friedman are downgrades, no doubt, but not to the extent of the discrepancies in what each of them make.
The prospect pool is as barren as it gets, and yet I'd still use 2022 first-round pick Owen Pickering as a trade chip. Sure, he's an intriguing player due to his size and skating ability. But Malkin will be riding jet skis in Florida by the time he makes it to the show. He's not some must-have prospect, and in all likelihood becomes a good No. 3 or 4 defenseman in a best-case scenario.
Worst case, he never amounts to anything and the Penguins look back on the 2023 trade deadline as a missed opportunity to move him and extend the window of the Crosby era.
As it pertains to anything remotely considered a futures asset, all of it should be on the table. There are ways to upgrade this team. It'll require creativity and guts, but there's a way.
Regardless of what I think, the Penguins aren't selling at the trade deadline. Buckle up. It'll be fascinating to see what happens, one way or the other.
