The Penguins need a third-line center.
Sure, they have more needs than that. But the way I see it, a positive influence up the middle on the third line has the potential to propel this team higher than addressing any other area throughout the lineup.
Fully respecting the 1,200-game, 400-goal career Jeff Carter's had, and even what he did in his first stretch of games in Pittsburgh, he is no longer the third-line center of a contender. This team cannot be considered among the competitors of the Eastern Conference with him in his current role.
Carter has a full no-movement clause, which means he isn't going anywhere. He can't be traded or waived for purpose of re-assignment to the minors without his consent, the former of which seems immensely unlikely and the latter of which simply won't happen. Ideally, he winds up in the press box, but there's no indication that would happen even if a third-line center replacement was readily available on the roster, so bumping him down to fourth-line center or shifting him to the right wing becomes the next best option.
Keeping in mind that he will likely remain in the lineup no matter what will be important when looking at potential third-line center trade targets, as their faceoff ability becomes a little less important because Carter can still take many of the draws even if he's playing on the right wing of that line.
I've narrowed down five targets the Penguins should consider trading for to bolster the position.
These are not rumors or related to anything I've heard about the Penguins' plans. Please don't treat them as such. I've also tried to keep these targets within the realm of possibility for the Penguins to acquire them. A player like Adam Henrique, who would be awesome as their third-line center but also carries a $5.825 million cap hit for another season, didn't make the cut for that reason.
When Jan Rutta is activated from long-term injured reserve, the Penguins will be left with roughly $20,000 in cap space, so they'll have to move money off the roster (someone like Rutta, Teddy Blueger, Brock McGinn or Kasperi Kapanen) in order to acquire any of these players.
None of these players suddenly solve everything, but going from one of the least impactful skaters in the league this season to one who's bringing bread to the table should provide a significant boost, perhaps even more significant than many -- including myself -- originally thought.
To provide a snapshot of each player, I'll be sharing player cards from JFresh Hockey. I encourage you to pretty much ignore the large projected WAR (wins above replacement) percentile stamped up top and instead focus on the percentiles of each individual component below it. You can read a full explainer on how to understand the cards here.
JFRESH HOCKEY
NICO STURM
Age: 27
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 209 pounds
Contract: $2 million, 2 years remaining
Role: Third-line center, second penalty-kill unit
GP: 50
G: 11
A: 6
Of all five potential targets included in this piece, Sturm might be the safest option of the bunch. He's a traditional third-line center who brings a bit of physicality and skates particularly well -- and hard -- for his size.
Playing on a basement-dwelling Sharks team, his defensive impacts have slipped a bit this season after two consecutive seasons at or well above league-average, but his impact toward generating quality offense has remained consistently above-average, which would obviously be a huge upgrade for the Penguins.
Sturm is scoring a destined-to-regress 1.05 goals per hour at 5-on-5 this season, which would rank third on the Penguins. Even once that rate comes back to earth, he should still make his mark by playing a responsible two-way game and taking care of the puck.
His faceoff ability comes as a bonus, as he's clicking at a 57.3% success rate this season and 54.2% for his career. He's also proven to be a pretty solid penalty-killer.
At a $2 million cap hit, the Penguins could do a lot worse. There are two seasons remaining on his contract signed just last offseason, but he's voiced displeasure about playing on a losing team, and with those Sharks not going anywhere anytime soon, I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to move him for the right return.
Check out No. 7 in teal laying a heavy hit moments before scoring in the following clip:
Next up's a familiar face ...
JFRESH HOCKEY
NICK BJUGSTAD
Age: 30
Size: 6-6, 209
Contract: $900,000, 0 years remaining
Role: Second-line center, first power-play unit, second penalty-kill unit
GP: 57
G: 13
A: 10
I know, I know. Just hear me out.
The real intrigue with Bjugstad here is, not only does he count just $900,000 against the salary cap, he comes off the books at the end of the season. His first stint with the Penguins didn't really go according to plan, as he played just 13 games with them in 2019-20 due to injury. However, he's remained pretty healthy this season, playing in all 57 of Arizona's games after playing in 57 last season.
He's having a resurgent defensive season on a bad Coyotes team and, while he doesn't drive a ton of offense, he's not a drag on it, either, and should pot a goal every once in a while with his long, heavy shot. If acquired, he'd also see diminished utilization on all fronts, which could bode well for his overall effectiveness.
The downside to acquiring Bjugstad is that he isn't very good on the penalty-kill (sixth percentile over the last three seasons) and isn't particularly gifted at the dot (47.4% success rate this season, 49% for his career).
Still, if he's able to translate this season's results over to the Penguins, he's an upgrade. Maybe even an upgrade who could free up some space for Kapanen to utilize his speed along the right wing. Just saying.
Speaking of upgrades ...
JFRESH HOCKEY
IVAN BARBASHEV
Age: 27
Size: 6-1, 195
Contract: $2.25 million, 0 years remaining
Role: Second-line left winger, second power-play unit, second penalty-kill unit
GP: 57
G: 10
A: 18
Barbashev is more of a charity inclusion here than anything else since he's been a trendy name among fans. The reality is, I wouldn't be all that inclined to acquire him unless it's for rather insignificant draft capital, which might not line up with the Blues' asking price.
Although he's posted pretty strong production rates over the past three seasons, he's consistently one of the worst defensive forwards in the league. That might come as a surprise to some considering he embraces some of the grittier components of the game, like hitting and embracing contact, but that doesn't always turn into results. It hasn't for him.
There's also reason to believe his production has been buoyed a tad by unsustainable shooting from himself and linemates. The Blues shot 11.7% with him on the ice at 5-on-5 last season after shooting 7.2% or below each of the previous four seasons.
Additionally, he's probably not a true solution at third-line center. He can play up the middle, but spends far more time on the left wing, and that's likely due to his poor defensive impact and putrid faceoff ability (39.1% success rate this season, 42.5% for his career). This season he's been a non-factor on the power play with just three points, and his average penalty-kill ice time is down to 0:46 per game from 1:58 just two seasons prior.
Barbashev's production might be worth a flyer at an expiring $2.25 million cap hit, but once you start to peel back the curtain there's not a whole lot to like.
Then again, he's suddenly a little more appealing after watching his recent overtime goal against the Avalanche:
A couple more ...
JFRESH HOCKEY
PIUS SUTER
Age: 26
Size: 5-11, 179
Contract: $3.25 million, 0 years remaining
Role: Fourth-line center, second penalty-kill unit
GP: 53
G: 11
A: 6
There's one subscriber, in particular, I hope this pleases.
Suter's one of the more intriguing options among this group, but he also comes with an expiring $3.25 million cap hit. Even if the Penguins found a way to make the money work, there's no guarantee the Red Wings would trade him to begin with.
The other caveat is that Suter currently centers the Red Wings' fourth line, which would mean a bit of an increased role in black and gold without the guarantee his impacts would remain as strong. That said, it's hard to argue with how strong his impacts are right now.
He's never been a player to hurt his team defensively, but this season his defensive impact has skyrocketed to the 86th percentile among league forwards to go along with impressive penalty-kill impacts. His influence on offensive generation has remained remarkably consistent, ranking right on the edge of the 75th percentile each of the last three seasons.
Suter does face a few challenges due to his size, but he more than makes up for it with his skating and ability to make those little plays that don't always stick out, but prove to be a big difference. He's not much of a volume shooter, though he tends to make his shots count by taking them from quality areas of the ice.
I'd be all over Suter if the opportunity presents itself.
Finally, there's this guy ...
JFRESH HOCKEY
MAX DOMI
Age: 27
Height: 5-foot-10
Weight: 194 pounds
Contract: $3 million, 0 years remaining
Role: First-line center, first power-play unit
GP: 56
G: 15
A: 28
Domi has greater potential than any other player here to push the Penguins closer to where they need to be, but he also carries more risk than any other player here. A great deal of that can be chalked up to his nonexistent defensive game. There aren't 10 forwards with defensive impacts as porous as his over the past three seasons.
Even so, he possesses high-end, and I mean high-end, playmaking ability. Just as there's a select group of forwards with weaker defense, there's a select group of forwards with better primary assist rates than Domi. The Penguins need more offense from the bottom six, and he'd address that in a big way.
Part of me thinks the Penguins don't need to make their defensive issues any worse by adding one of the worst defensive forwards in the league, but the other part of me says they have solid defensive wingers in the bottom six who might be able to mask some of it. The other part of me also says it doesn't even matter considering the giant offensive boost they'll enjoy, especially because he'll help them out transitioning the puck and setting up chances after gaining the offensive blue line.
Domi is currently centering the Blackhawks' first line and first power-play unit on an expiring $3 million cap hit. Chicago's selling and will move him if it makes sense, but I've also heard they have no problem hanging onto him.
He's been strong at the dot this season (54.8% success rate), but he -- understandably -- doesn't kill penalties.
If you truly believe the Penguins don't have a shot no matter what they do this season, why not take a stab at Domi? If it works, great. If not? He's gone at the end of the season. I have a tough time believing he'd do any worse than Carter's paltry 39.5% share of on-ice goals at 5-on-5 this season.
