The March 3 NHL trade deadline is rapidly approaching. While Ron Hextall's exact plans remain murky, he's made one thing clear: The Penguins aren't selling. They're looking to add to and improve this current team.
Within that, though, Hextall's also made clear he has no interest in burning futures assets for pure rentals. If high-end draft capital, or even their only prospect with much value in Owen Pickering, are heading out in a trade, the centerpiece of the return will be around beyond the end of this season.
Pierre LeBrun of TSN confirmed that, while he doesn't know where all of it leads, the Penguins have had discussions with the Coyotes. I listed Nick Bjugstad as a potential easy-to-acquire and cheap third-line center option in last week's Drive to the Net, but is it possible Hextall's been kicking tires on defenseman Jakob Chychrun?
I'm still of the belief that the Penguins' greatest need is a third-line center, but it's starting to look more and more like Hextall is just fine with Jeff Carter in that role. He has mentioned upgrading the third line, but not necessarily in reference to the center position. He even somewhat went to bat for Carter when he spoke to reporters last Friday in Cranberry. If that specific spot is being looked into on the market, there isn't much indication of it.
If they're not after a third-line center upgrade, making a splash on the blue line -- like acquiring Chychrun -- might be the next best thing.
Although he's been playing better than some of the extreme lows displayed earlier in the season, you'd have a hard time convincing me Brian Dumoulin's game is at a level that warrants continued top-pairing duties. With him on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, the Penguins have scored just 41% of the goals and controlled 49.4% of the expected goals, per Evolving-Hockey. I admittedly haven't checked across the entire NHL, but I'm inclined to believe there aren't many legitimate contenders that have a top-pairing defenseman with results that poor.
An upgrade next to Kris Letang could prove nearly as impactful as upgrading at third-line center. Of course, there's always the option to demote Dumoulin to the third pairing, bumping up Marcus Pettersson to the top pairing and P.O Joseph to the second, but that seems less than ideal for a number of reasons. Not only were Pettersson and Letang's results together from earlier this season rather average, Pettersson's pairing with Jeff Petry has been the team's best over the course of the season. Both are also on fire right now. Breaking that up doesn't seem wise.
Additionally, bumping Dumoulin down to the third pairing would mean playing alongside Jan Rutta. Neither of them are all that offensively inclined, and that's a big reason why their results together have been unremarkable.
Chychrun, 24, hasn't played since Feb. 10 as the Coyotes have held him out of the lineup due to trade-related reasons. He's wanted out of Arizona for over a year now and, despite his name consistently swirling in trade rumors, general manager Bill Armstrong hasn't found a return he deems acceptable.
Armstrong doesn't have to move Chychrun, who has two more seasons on his contract at a very reasonable $4.6 million cap hit, but this seems to have reached a point of no turning back. He might also look to resolve the matter before Friday's trade deadline because Chychrun has a 10-team no-trade clause kicking in over the summer.
Here's a snapshot of Chychrun's impacts over the past three seasons, courtesy of JFresh Hockey. I encourage you to pretty much ignore the large projected WAR (wins above replacement) percentile stamped up top and instead focus on the percentiles of each individual component below it. You can read a full explainer on how to understand the card here.
JFRESH HOCKEY
Above all else, Chychrun's most enticing asset is his shot and ability to put the puck in the net, either from distance, off the rush, or activating to dangerous areas for one-timers in the offensive zone. He has seven goals and 21 assists in 36 games as the Coyotes' No. 1 guy this season, and garnered Norris Trophy votes for his 2020-21 season in which he scored 18 goals and had 23 assists in 56 games.
Really, dude can score:
The thing about him is that he isn't the best at any one particular component of the game, but he's rather solid in most aspects. In two of the past three seasons, his isolated impact toward generating quality offensive chances ranked at or above the 78th percentile of NHL defensemen. In each of the past three seasons, his impact on limiting quality chances against has been above league-average. Over the past two, he's been at or above the 69th percentile.
Ideally, Chychrun is a team's third-best defenseman, but he's handled the role of a No. 1 on a very bad team considerably well. Might his impacts improve in a better environment with reduced burden? It's not out of the question.
At 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, he skates very well for his size, much of which is thanks to his strength. That strength also helps him out in the gritty components of the game, like board battles along the wall, playing through contact and establishing body position in order to maintain possession. Those are all things the Penguins need Dumoulin to be doing much, much better.
Again, he's not among the best at it, but another strong aspect of his game is his defensive stickwork. He likes to kill sequences before they fully develop by playing an aggressive brand without the puck. That said, it does get him into trouble on occasion when he makes a bad read or gets overzealous looking to spark the play the other way. Some of that likely has to do with trying to make something happen on a basement-dwelling team, but part of it's just who he is as a player.
He could help Letang, who has pretty poor defensive impacts these days, a great deal in the Penguins' end.
Another reason he might be a strong fit alongside Letang is that a great deal of his offensive impact truly comes from his willingness to shoot and do it from deep in the zone, not because he's an adept distributor or puck-mover. Letang would be the one primarily distributing and skating the puck up ice while Chychrun serves as the defensive backbone with the ever-present ability to beat you with his shot. I'm already envisioning Letang hitting him with a cross-ice pass in transition as he flies up the weak side of the ice.
Chychrun isn't perfect. He is a big upgrade in addition to bringing youthful legs to the league's oldest team. And as mentioned, he's got another two seasons left at a very respectable cap hit before becoming an unrestricted free agent.
So, what'll he cost?
Armstrong's reportedly been asking for two first-round picks and a second round-pick. On Sunday, the Lightning acquired bottom-six forward Tanner Jeannot, who had five goals and nine assists with the Predators prior to the trade, for the following package:
• 2025 first-round pick (Top-10 protected)
• 2024 second-round pick
• 2023 third-round pick
• 2023 fourth-round pick
• 2023 fifth-round pick
• 24-year-old defenseman Cal Foote
Fully aware of the intrigue around Jeannot's game, that package seemed legitimately insane to me. And yet, it was hard to disagree with the sentiments from general manager Julien BriseBois as to why he was comfortable shipping out such a hefty package.
"At the end of the day, I know there’s a perceived value of those picks, but we have a really good idea of what the actual value of those picks are," BriseBois said Monday. "Individually, you can go, ‘What’s that first-round pick worth? What’s the second-round pick?’ and so forth, and so on. And when we look at what that’s worth to us, based on the odds of those picks turning into good NHL players down the road, I’d rather have the good player right now for this season and next and help this group win right now.
"I know what the odds are of those picks turning into (NHL) players. I also know the odds of those picks turning into players that can help us win while we have this group of players right now, in their prime, ready to go for another long run. The odds of that are zero. None of those picks were gonna help. None of the players we were gonna draft with those picks were gonna help us win this year, or next, or probably the year after that."
Hextall should be carrying a similar mindset just days out from the deadline.
There's no stockpiling draft picks to try and quickly retool while the core's still here. That isn't going to happen. The commitment to win right now was re-established last summer and that isn't going to change. Let's be real, seeing Crosby and co. with a shot in the playoffs one more time will be worth far more than the several standings points that might be added to the NHL team from those picks five or six years from now.
Don't believe me? Take a look at the Penguins' first-round draft picks over the last decade. Even better, take a look at Hextall's first-round picks as general manager of the Flyers (and who he passed over).
The Penguins will have to send money out to bring Chychrun in. Possibly Dumoulin, if there's a sweetener to take on the remaining games of his contract before expiring at the end of the season. If that's the case, no more money will need moved off the books. If not, things get a little more complicated.
Either way, the assets are in the cupboard to acquire him. On top of Pickering, the Penguins have a first-, second- and third-round pick in each of the next three drafts. Hextall can't continue to be halfway in and halfway out the door. Fully commit to winning with a young player who can help you now, as well as whatever conceivable window is left. Forget about whether or not you're slightly overpaying at this point.
Maybe it's just the trade deadline mania getting to me, but I've convinced myself that Chychrun would be a great addition if a trade for a third-line center isn't in the cards. Perhaps an even larger trade could come together, but we'll just have to wait and see.
