Kovacevic: Find the fluky part, please, in these Pirates' stirring start taken at PNC Park (DK's Grind)

JUSTIN K. ALLER / GETTY

Connor Joe unsheathes the sword following his three-run home run in the first inning Thursday night at PNC Park.

Mitch Keller's one of those cooler-than-cool dudes who'll always let someone finish whatever they've got to say and legitimately listen throughout. 

Know the kind?

No, seriously, go right ahead and gab his ear off, as I was doing at his stall about the Pirates' 4-3 fencing off of the Reds on this fun Thursday night at PNC Park, about all these big pitching performances of late, about all these big hits, about all these big plays in the field, about a whole lot of other upbeat fare ... and he'll wait till the last syllable's formed before replying.

And this time, once I'd finally shut up, he came back with three whole syllables of his own: "Yeah. We're good."

OK, care to write the rest of the column, too, Mitch?

I mean, that's really it. They're good.

And I swear I'm not even referencing the wins outnumbering the losses, though that's been welcome after three of the worst seasons our city's ever witnessed. I'm not referencing being 13-7, or the best start since also opening 13-7 in 2002, or the current four-game winning streak, or taking a couple from the resident archnemesis at Busch Stadium, or taking another from the defending World Series champion Astros, or sweeping three from the Red Sox at Fenway Park, or whatever warm-and-fuzzy anyone might feel upon waking up to these Major League Baseball overall standings:

photoCaption-photoCredit

MLB.com

Nope. None of that. Rather, they're good because ... they're actually good?

Deep breath for the deep data dive on the offense:

Runs scored: 103, fourth in MLB
Home runs: 27, fourth
Extra-base hits: 71, second
OPS: .777, sixth
Walks: 78, fourth
Steals: 21, fourth

OPS is on-base plus slugging percentage, and it's the most complete accounting of offense that's available, I've long believed. But just in case anyone's still skeptical, I'll add another in the advanced category: The Pirates have a .287 BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, which is low enough to rank 20th in the majors. That's an excellent tracker for whether or not a team's just getting lucky, landing 'em where they ain't, so to speak. And that clearly isn't the case here.

Here's another: The Pirates' average exit velocity off the bat, even in the absence of Exit Velocity God Oneil Cruz, is 90.5 mph, fourth-highest in the majors.

Any of that feeling fluky?

Oh, just wait for the pitching:

Starters' innings: 110, first in majors
Quality starts: 12, first
Saves/opportunities: 9 of 11, first
Staff ERA: 4.03, 12th
Strikeouts: 169, 14th
Pitches per inning: 16.46, 11th

Now, there are a couple red flags in this collection, chiefly the 1.41 walks and hits per inning pitched that ranks 23rd. And within that, the 79 walks that are tied for seventh-most. Those need to improve and, over the past two weeks, they've taken a sharp turn toward doing that.

But still ... my goodness. All of it.

And then there's the more entertaining approach to analyzing everything:

        

That's Connor Joe crushing a three-run home run in the first inning of this game. Two-out, full-count fastball right down the pipe, getting the beating it deserved.

"Oh, I got all of that," he'd tell me.

A fluke?

Depends on the perspective. Joe's a strong 205-pound athlete who's always had a penchant for recognizing pitches, knowing his zone and swinging when it's his choice, not the pitcher's. So even though he's never been known for power, and even though his slashing .340/.421/.640 through 50 official at-bats is above career norms, he's only got 648 at-bats -- and 17 home runs, by the way -- to his name. And this was just his second home run this season.

Besides, Joe's yet to carve out a firm starting role yet. If/when he does, the dialogue could be altered altogether.

The entertainment continued with the next man in the box:

        

All Jack Suwinski does is hit home runs, right?

That's five on the young season, all in the past eight games, and along the way he's also slashing .263/.375/.684 after a nightmarish opening couple of weeks in which he was scarcely making contact. Hidden within his past three games might be that he's also worked four walks, including another here.

When the kid hits 19 one summer, then erupts like this, no one should be talking about a fluke.

Roansy Contreras wasn't exactly a human highlight in pitching 6 2/3 quality innings -- one run, five hits, eight Ks, two walks -- but he's fully regained the four-seam command that'd eluded him earlier this month, and he got all eight of his Ks here via the slider:

        

The slider was all over the place from the location standpoint, but he got 14 swings and misses thanks to rich movement.

"I feel pretty comfortable with the slider right now as my second pitch," he'd say afterward through team interpreter Stephen Morales. "That’s given me the confidence to throw it anytime in any count."

Mm-hm. And the confidence to stand right alongside a rotation that's now got an outrageous 10 quality starts in a row, the Pirates' longest such streak since 12 from June 7-19, 2015.

"As a group, we’re motivating each other," Contreras said of Keller, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Johan Oviedo. "That’s fuel to go out there and do well every night."

And talk about entertaining:

        

Hoo-boy.

Know what's funny about that sequence?

There couldn't have been a solitary soul among the 14,051 in attendance who'd doubted Ke'Bryan Hayes would get that done, even after the awkward, necessary roll to his left. Or, for that matter, that Carlos Santana would cap it by scooping Ji Hwan Bae's misfire. Kept Cincinnati from plating the tying run in the eighth inning, to boot.

That's beautiful baseball. And yet, when it comes to Hayes, it's almost become boring.

"That's why he's one of the best defenders on the planet," Derek Shelton replied when I brought this up. "There's probably two guys in baseball that make that play."

The other's Nolan Arenado. Who isn't at Hayes' level, sorry, with all due respect.

"I kinda just blacked out," Hayes would say with that standard humble smile. "Athleticism kinda took over."

The kind that doesn't go into slumps. Like so much of what I'm describing.

Same goes for this:

        

That's Colin Holderman, who'd had a tough time gripping the ball in the eighth and wasn't at all himself, plowing a slider under the swing of Tyler Stephenson to strand another Cincinnati runner at third.

Just typing out Holderman's answer when I asked about this won't do it justice, so watch this:

"  "

"Nasty as I could," indeed. Check out that pitch up there again. That's no outlier, either. He was wowing his teammates as much as anyone in Bradenton, in large part because of that nastiness. Stephenson didn't have a prayer with that late action.

I'll raise it again: Where's the flukiness?

That the team's top two hitters are Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds?

That Carlos Santana's emerged as a steadying leader?

That David Bednar can close?

Regardless, we'll all soon be seeing, hearing or reading about the scrappy, crafty, never-say-die, sword-wielding, Cutch-inspired, freak-show underdogs or whatever other regurgitated phrases will arise across the baseball world to paint the picture of these Pirates ... when, in fact, what they're doing is about as dull as it gets from that singular standpoint.

I asked Santana, and he returned, "We can play. That's why we believe."

I asked Holderman: "We're just playing good baseball."

My favorite came from Joe: "It's sustainable."

photoCaption-photoCredit

JUSTIN K. ALLER / GETTY

The Pirates' infield celebrates beating the Reds, 4-3, Thursday night at PNC Park.

THE ESSENTIALS

 Boxscore
Live file
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
• Scoreboard

THE HIGHLIGHTS

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THE INJURIES

• 10-day injured list: 1B Ji-Man Choi (Achilles)

• 15-day injured list: RHP Chase De Jong (lumbar spine), Rob Zastryzny (elbow)

60-day injured list: RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow)

THE LINEUPS

Shelton's card:

1. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
2. Bryan Reynolds, LF
3. Andrew McCutchen, DH
4. Carlos Santana, 1B
5. Connor Joe, RF
6. Jack Suwinski, CF
7. Rodolfo Castro, SS
8. Ji Hwan Bae, 2B
9. Austin Hedges, C

And for David Bell's Reds:

1. Jonathan India, 2B
2. TJ Friedl, LF
3. Spencer Steer, 3B
4. Jake Fraley, RF
5. Tyler Stephenson, C
6. Wil Myers, DH
7. Jason Vosler, 1B
8. Nick Senzel, CF
9. Jose Barrero, SS

THE SCHEDULE

Next up in this four-game set: Keller vs. another righty, Graham Ashcraft. First pitch 6:35 p.m. Chris Halicke will be here.

THE MULTIMEDIA

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