There's a lot going right for the Pirates at the moment. The starting pitching has been excellent, leading all of baseball in quality starts. The bullpen has been the best in baseball in terms of WAR and win probability added. The offense is getting contributions from just about everyone and they had a historic 33-run output against the Rockies this week. There are plenty of reasons why, at the time of this Mound Visit's publication, they have the best record in the National League.
And, oh yeah, they're running the bases really well, too.
Feel free to consider this as just a subsection of the offensive turnaround, but it deserves more recognition. Base running is one of the pillars of small ball, but until recently, the Pirates had consistently struggled to create those extra runs on the bags. This team will only be successful if they do the little things right. So far, they have made it a big thing because they are creating and cashing in on these new opportunities.
"It's been a three-year journey to get to where we are now," base running coach Tarrik Brock told me at Coors Field.
Brock has been all smiles while walking through the Pirate's clubhouse this year. It's been a three year journey of building better trust with players and for his message to really resonate, but it has taken off this year. One of the main points Brock goes to in meetings is asking his players what would they do on the base paths if they knew they weren't going to make an out.
"I want them to be fearless and take the chance," Brock said.
So far, these Pirates have been fearless, being one of the most aggressive base running teams in the league. Overall, the results have been positive, albeit with a few blemishes. They are tied for the most outs made on the bases, according to Baseball-Reference (10), but they are third in the National League in extra bases taken (25). Take the good with the bad there. Six of those outs on the base paths have been at home, which analytically speaking is a good risk to take because the binary result is either an out or a run. Of course you have to play the situation, but generally speaking, the reward outweighs the risk.
Even with those outs at home, the Pirates grade out better on the base paths than they have in recent years.FanGraphs' primary base running stat is BsR, or runs created on the bases. That includes stolen bases, caught stealings and just generally good/bad base running plays. Right now, the Pirates have 1.5 BsR, which is ninth in baseball. It's shaping up to be another year of improving on the bases, if you're willing to project that total over a full season:
Data via FanGraphs. 2023 total projected over 162 games
Getting to 10 base running runs would mean that, from a WAR standpoint, the Pirates would win an extra game through nothing but what they do on the bases. It's a sometimes underappreciated part of the game, but one they have done very well so far.
And the reason why they're doing so well is because they are stealing bases at a franchise-best pace.
The Pirates are currently second in baseball in stolen bases (25) and have been caught stealing just five times. That's an 83.3% clip, significantly better than the previous franchise conversion rate, when they were successful on 76.2% of their steal attempts in 1997. A dozen different players have stolen a base, ranging from the speedy Ji Hwan Bae to 37-year-old first baseman Carlos Santana. It has been a whole team effort.
Some of this is product of the new pitch clock and disengagement rules. Pitchers can only throw over a couple times and it's easier for a base runner to time up a pitcher's delivery. Through the early goings of the season, it's created more stolen base attempts than we've seen in decades.
That should be considered when looking at this next chart, but even when considering the increase in steals across the league, the Pirates are being significantly more aggressive in 2023 than they have been at any other point in the 21st century:
Data via Stathead
This could be the first time since 2001 where the Pirates average a stolen base per game (though that 2011 team came awfully close). Across the league, the average team is attempting 0.86 steals per game. The Pirates are doing 50% more than that average, and they have been successful at a very good rate.
So while the rules may have been a catalyst to be more aggressive, this boom is mostly due to the team the Pirates have.
"The rules are definitely part of it, but the most important part is the personnel," Derek Shelton said in Denver. "We're more athletic, and we knew coming into the year that we're going to be more athletic. We're going to have guys with the opportunity to do different things. And honestly, just a couple years of T-Brock kind of jamming it down their throats. I think now they got it. Like, 'hey, this is what we want to do.' "
If you're willing to count the injured Oneil Cruz for a moment, the Pirates have six of the top 101 players in sprint speed this year: Bae (29.2 feet per second), Cruz (28.7 ft./sec), Jack Suwinski (28.4 ft./sec), Andrew McCutchen (28.4 ft./sec), Bryan Reynolds (28 ft./sec) and Mark Mathias (27.7 ft/sec). Connor Joe, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Cannan Smith-Njigba are all within fractions of a second of league average sprint speed. If you omit the catcher, the Pirates could field one of the fastest lineups any given day.
That's a great set of tools to have, but there's more to base stealing than just speed. After hitting a double against the Cardinals earlier this month, Brock went out to Hayes at second base to collect his gear. While there, he told him what the pitcher's tell was for when they were going to the plate. If Hayes waited a pitch or two, he could have third easily. That's exactly what happened, and Hayes would later score on a sacrifice fly. Taking that extra bag created a run.
That's the next step for this young, speedy team. One that could cement them as one of the better base running clubs in 2023 and the future.
"It's just learning this league," Brock said. "All fast guys are unique at the same time. They come with different challenges. We're just teaching them the art of base stealing at the major-league level."
