TAMPA, Fla. -- Derek Shelton responded Sunday that the focus was on that day's game. The Pirates had just lost to the Nationals -- just their second loss in 13 games -- and he wanted to focus on the continued quality effort his team gave even towards the end of a lost cause.
Shower it off, because next up are the 23-6 Rays.
"We’re talking about the best team in baseball," Shelton said. "We’re going to have to go in there and play well."
Actually, we're talking about the two best teams in baseball, record wise. The Pirates are 20-9, and while the season is young, that hot start does make this Rays series quite possibly the most anticipated the Pirates have played in Shelton's tenure. It also just might be the most important, one where the Pirates can see how their strengths compare against another team who excel in many of the same areas they do.
Going by the adjusted stats ERA+ and OPS+ (where 100 is considered league average), the Pirates are the sixth-best pitching team in baseball with a 126 ERA+ (26% than average) and the fourth-best hitting team with a 116 OPS+. Only team two teams are higher in both categories: The Rangers and, of course, the Rays. This graphic by Reddit user /u/_0_00_0_ illustrates how well the Pirates are doing in these facets.
It also shows that the Rays were astronomically better than anyone else in the league, especially hitting. They have an .879 team OPS. The Cubs are second in baseball with a .795 OPS. That 84 point gap is larger than the gap between second and 18th entering Monday.
The deeper you dive, the more this becomes a matchup of strength vs strength. The Pirates have found success pitching by leaning into the breaking ball more than anyone else (43.9%). The Rays have the highest batting average (.266) against breaking balls this year. The Pirates are fifth in slugging percentage against fastballs (.478). The Rays have the lowest slugging percentage allowed against fastballs (.340). If either team thinks they can rally late, they might be mistaken. The Pirates' bullpen has the best win probability added (2.52) in the league, while the Rays have a 2.97 bullpen ERA.
Even the running game is seemingly evenly matched. The Pirates lead the league in stolen bases (41), and the Rays have kept the run game in check by allowing just 16 stolen base attempts, the third-fewest in baseball.
Not to mention that both teams should be sending out their best pitchers this series. Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Shane McClanahan... this would be a great pitcher's duel if it didn't feature two of the top three offenses in terms of OPS.
Everything the Pirates do well, the Rays do well. Who wins in that head-to-head matchup? It's three games, but this is a chance to show they aren't just the product of a lighter April schedule.
"I think our guys embrace everything," Shelton said. "I think they really do a good job. We just played a good Dodger team. We played a good Astros team. We’ve played some good teams. We’re going into Tampa. We need to play good baseball."
That's going to need to continue beyond this series, too. Not just because it's a long-season, but because the Pirates are about to face one of their toughest stretches of games.
A matchup of the each league's top team is obviously the top billing, but things don't lighten up after this series. Next up are the Blue Jays, a playoff club from a year ago who have eyes on October again. The next road series is against the Orioles, the team with the second best American League record. The following homestand will have the Diamondbacks and Rangers, the two current leaders of the western divisions.
If you wanted to see if these Pirates are for real, the next three weeks may give you your answer.
The team doesn't want to hear it, though. Chatting about this upcoming series while in Washington this weekend, the focus isn't on measuring stick series. It's on winning.
Because, as Austin Hedges would tell me, they've noticed how often they've been the betting underdog, even when they had the better record.
"This type of winning is what we expect here," Hedges was telling me.
It's one series, just three games out of 162. But one can't help but wonder if that will start to change if the Pirates take care of business against the Rays on the road.
"I’ve said it time and time again. We’re resilient," Shelton said. "We play hard. We’ve had really good pitching... I think there are a lot of things we’ve done well. We’ve caught the baseball. We’ve executed. We just have to continue to do that as May starts."
