There is every reason to believe Pitt can hold court atop the ACC in the 2023 football season, after finishing the 2022 campaign 9-4 overall and closing with a win over UCLA in the Sun Bowl and a second straight Associated Press Top 25 ranking.
Despite a 20-7 record over the last two seasons, it doesn't seem as if Pat Narduzzi's program is getting the proper respect it deserves heading into 2023.
According to over/under totals released by the website BetOnline, the Panthers are expected to float around the .500 mark, with an expected over/under total set at 6.5 wins.
Is this fair? Or are another change at quarterback and several key pieces departing for the NFL hindering Pitt's outlook in a fair or foul way?
Let's dive in.
Here is the full 2023 Pitt football schedule. Nonconference games are italicized:
• Sept. 2: Wofford
• Sept. 9: Cincinnati
• Sept. 16: at West Virginia
• Sept. 23: North Carolina
• Sept. 30: at Virginia Tech
• Oct. 7: OPEN
• Oct. 14: Louisville
• Oct. 21: at Wake Forest
• Oct. 28: at Notre Dame
• Nov. 4: Florida State
• Nov. 11: at Syracuse (at Yankee Stadium)
• Nov. 16 (Thurs.): Boston College
• Nov. 25: at Duke
Without a shred of a doubt, Narduzzi loaded this schedule up. Nonconference games at West Virginia and at Notre Dame are hard enough to project, but add in early-season games against Heisman Trophy candidate Drake Maye and North Carolina and then at Virginia Tech prior to an open week, and Pitt is looking at a tough front-end.
Pitt also has to go to Wake Forest and Notre Dame in back-to-back weeks, and prior to a showdown with Syracuse at Yankee Stadium in mid-November, Pitt has a cup of coffee at home against a Florida State team which has lofty expectations to win the league. After that trip to the Bronx is a short week to prepare for Boston College.
THREE REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER
1. Phil Jurkovec is as, or better than advertised.
Jurkovec can be perceived as an upgrade over Kedon Slovis -- though, I don't exactly subscribe to that notion on paper -- and there is belief that he can be based on his mobility and his prior familiarity with running Frank Cignetti Jr's offense from their time together at Boston College.
His ceiling is clearly undefined from that standpoint, though, because of his inability to stay healthy and transferring twice over the course of his career. What if Jurkovec turns into the expected rock star that came out of Pine-Richland several years ago? What if Florida transfer Daejon Reynolds at wide receiver and incoming USC transfer Malcolm Epps at tight end are the prime additions this offense missed from last year, adding to Konata Mumpfield and Bub Means at receiver and Gavin Bartholomew at tight end?
Those would be the ways Jurkovec maximizes. Anything slightly below that and above average would be considered a win.
This offense should become more balanced from what it was last year, and its success will hinge on Jurkovec's ability to run it effectively. He has a solid stable of running backs led by Rodney Hammond Jr. to lean on, but that should not be the focal point of why Pitt succeeds in 2023. If Pitt's offense becomes improved from the Slovis to Jurkovec eras it should be because of Jurkovec.
2. Glimpses from last year's youngsters grow into solutions.
The Sun Bowl offered what is hopefully a glimpse into the future of Pitt football.
That future is set to become the now.
Gone are Slovis, Israel Abanikanda, Jared Wayne, Carter Warren, Marcus Minor, Owen Drexel, and Gabe Houy from the offense.
Exited are Deslin Alexandre, Calijah Kancey, Haba Baldonado, SirVocea Dennis, Erick Hallett II, and Brandon Hill from the defense.
Add that up, and that is 13 out of 22 major starters who need replaced in 2023. We saw players like Hammond, Mumpfield, Means, and tackles Matt Goncalves and Branson Taylor play major roles on the 2022 offense, and Dayon Hayes, Bangally Kamara, and Javon McIntyre showcased potential on the 2022 defense while PJ O'Brien was the MVP of the Panthers' spring game.
Obviously, turning over more than 50% of the 22 starters has to be a factor of why the Panthers' win total is set for 6.5, but we saw 17 replacements across the board beat a ranked UCLA team in the Sun Bowl.
If the Panthers are going to win over 6.5, a good number of the 13 new starters will have to play at a high level. If the end of last season was any indication, there should be high hopes for that.
3. Depth within the trenches lives up to the hype.
There is a lot to like about the Panthers up front, and that always seems to render as a strength under Narduzzi-led teams. The offensive line, while four opening day starters from 2022 are being replaced, is still a veteran group with All-ACC-caliber potential at more than one spot. Jake Kradel manning the center spot, with Blake Zubovic, the All-ACC tackle Goncalves, and Taylor returning are expected provide a solid base for Hammond and the rest of the running game to pick up from last year.
As far as pass blocking is concerned, Jurkovec at least will have veterans with prior experience in the Cignetti offense, rather than his line having to learn the offense as a whole with Jurkovec.
The defensive line, led by Football Scoop's Defensive Line Coach of the Year in Charlie Partridge, has a boatload of young talent to like. Nahki Johnson, Samuel Okunlola, Jimmy Scott, Sean FitzSimmons, Thomas Aden, Elliot Donald, and Isaiah Neal all boast status as a redshirt sophomore or younger. Combine those seven linemen with veterans Hayes, David Green, Devin Danielson, Nate Temple, Bam Brima, Tyler Bentley, and Deandre Jules, among others, that gives Partridge countless combinations of rotations and rush patterns to deploy against a given offense.
There might not be a star on the defensive line like Kancey was, but there is still productive depth returning that either showcased ability last year or have been tasked with doing so over the spring and summer. Even if this defensive line is, at minimum, top-heavy, Green and Danielson bring experience to the interior and Hayes, Johnson, and Brima were all key contributors last season.
THREE REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER:
1. The lack of depth at wide receiver hinders the offense.
As of now, there isn't much to be excited about behind Reynolds, Mumpfield, and Means within the wide receivers room.
Yes, Bartholomew and/or Epps have the ability to play some snaps wide or in the slot, but there is a drop-off among boundary threats. Israel Polk and Lamar Seymore are freshmen that need some more seasoning, and Jake McConnachie and Jahvante Royal just don't have the experience around them for being redshirt juniors for them to be considered reliable targets for Jurkovec.
There is time to add more depth to the room -- the window for spring transfers to enter the portal closed April 30, though there is still room to acquire talent from it -- and Narduzzi and Cignetti could benefit from adding another receiver, maybe two, before fall camp arrives.
2. The rest of the ACC levels up.
This is expected.
Across all of college football, per BetOnline, Clemson has the sixth-highest odds to win the National Championship at +1600. Florida State (+1800) is right behind them, followed by North Carolina (+12500), Miami (+15000), NC State (+25000), and Louisville (+25000) checking in with better national title odds than Pitt (+27500), among ACC teams.
Oddsmakers, for what they are worth, like Pitt seventh in the pecking order in this scope. With the ACC transitioning away from divisions and taking the top two overall teams to the ACC Championship game, the road gets harder to separate from the middle of the conference. Florida State's over/under win total is at 10.0, Clemson's is 9.5, North Carolina's is 8.5, Miami's is 7.5, NC State's is 6.5, and Louisville's (surprisingly?) is at 7.5.
I'd take the bait on Florida State winning the ACC, as we sit here in mid-May. We'll learn a lot about the Seminoles in Week 1 when they face LSU in Orlando, Fla. but there is a lot to like about Jordan Travis at quarterback and having Jared Verse return to lead the defense after spurning a potential top-15 slotting in this past NFL Draft.
The depth of talent in the ACC combined with Pitt's massive amount of losses could force the conversation into a "rebuild" instead of a "retool" period for Narduzzi, but that was also the outside expectation for 2022 after Kenny Pickett left for the NFL. Time will tell here.
3. You always have to account for injuries.
Though you cannot predict them, they tend to happen at just about every level in some capacity. File this under the "unlucky" portion of what could go "wrong" in Pitt football in 2023, which would also include Jurkovec not performing up to expectations, the running game completely falling off without Abanikanda, and the young potential not living up to the early hype.
COREY'S PICK
ESPN's College Football Power Index currently has Pitt ranked 35th with a projected win-loss total of 7.1-5.2. The model projects Pitt with an 83.7% chance to win six games and an 8.1% chance to win the ACC.
Pitt has been bowl eligible in all-but one season in eight under Narduzzi (2017 -- the Panthers declined their bowl invite in 2020) and that should come into play again in 2023.
Narduzzi would need six wins for that, which is right around that FPI cutoff and the BetOnline over/under total.
If we're playing the schedule game in mid-May, I see wins over Wofford, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College as certain, which gets Pitt to five right away.
There are losses which would jump out right away, namely to North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Florida State.
That leaves the toss-ups: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Duke. Remembering from last season, West Virginia and Duke came down o the wire, Pitt had to have a historic day from Abanikanda to bat Virginia Tech, and the Panthers lost at Louisville.
Four toss-ups are nearly too many, but winning three of these gets Pitt to eight wins and winning two gets Pitt to seven.
I see Pitt as an eight- or nine-win team on a max level, and the "under" of 6.5 would have to be hit on a minimum level. Realistically, a "low" win total expected should be around five, and the maximum should be around nine.
For "entertainment purposes only," I like the odds of the over more than the odds of the under.
