Over/under: Will Penn State top 9.5 wins?

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Big things are expected from Penn State this fall, and with that comes a big number on the team's over/under win total.

The early betting line is out, and it has the Nittany Lions at 9 1/2 wins. As you can see by clicking on the link, you can take over 9 1/2 for -140, or under 9 1/2 for +110.

Before analyzing whether Penn State can top that number, here's a look at the season schedule:

Sept. 2: vs. West Virginia
Sept. 9: vs. Delaware
Sept. 16: at Illinois
Sept. 23: vs. Iowa
Sept. 30: at Northwestern
Oct. 7: Bye
Oct. 14: vs. UMass
Oct. 21: at Ohio State
Oct. 28: vs. Indiana
Nov. 4: at Maryland
Nov. 11: vs. Michigan
Nov. 18: vs. Rutgers
Nov. 25: at Michigan State

There are several tough games, including a trip to Ohio State, but most view that schedule as pretty favorable for Penn State. The Lions are coming off an 11-2 season and Rose Bowl victory, plus they will be ranked in the preseason top 10, so an over/under win total of 9 1/2 is pretty much what everyone should have expected.

It should be noted, though, that both Ohio State and Michigan have over/under totals of 10 1/2 wins, and Penn State has to play both of those within the same division.

THREE REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER

1. This is a complete football team, one without many holes.

Most starting units on offense and defense have outstanding talent, with perhaps one exception I'll get to in a bit. But in short, it's hard to find many real weaknesses among the starters, plus there's good depth at numerous positions.

The Lions went into last year not knowing what they had at linebacker. But the emergence of Abdul Carter as a potential superstar changed all that.

Last year, Penn State might have had its best secondary ever. Yes, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is gone, but Kalen King is back, and there's still a lot of talent around him.

The D-line should be very good, led by likely preseason All-American Chop Robinson on the edge. 

How good is he?

Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are two excellent running backs.

The tight ends will be very good again.

Oh, and while we're talking about being a complete team, that also includes the coaching staff. Give me Manny Diaz overseeing the defense any day. That guy proved to be a phenomenal hire last year. And offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich did terrific work in a big bounce-back year for him.

Even if a few players struggle more than expected, there are so many other good players in the program. Plus, the Lions should be able to beat opponents in a number of different ways, offensively or defensively.

2. Drew Allar's upside is enormous.

If the phenom quarterback turns out to be anywhere near as good as people expect, then the sky's the limit for the offense.

He played a good bit last year -- it should have been more! -- and this was his best pass. Keep in mind, this was a true freshman making this fantastic throw on the run.

Filthy!

Allar has a lot of weapons around him and won't have to do everything himself. But with his skill set, if he's asked to do it all, you'd think he will be able to meet that challenge, at least with some experience as the season goes on.

There are some questions about Allar, which will be addressed shortly.

3. A good offensive line can cover up a lot of problems.

It feels like some sort of dream, like we have to keep pinching ourselves as a reminder that, yes, Penn State actually should have an outstanding offensive line this year.

Maybe Allar will only be mediocre in year one. OK, the line still should be able to open up a lot of holes for Singleton and Allen. And if the running game is really, really good, then teams will have to sell out to stop that, which will in turn make things easier for Allar.

The tight ends should be so good that the line may only need to protect Allar for a very short period of time before he dumps off short passes on quick reads to Theo Johnson or Tyler Warren.

Oh, and while we're talking about the tight ends, good luck stopping Yurcich's beautiful T-formation package, given Penn State's strong O-line, blocking tight ends and excellent runners.

When you can run the ball, it opens up everything else. And there's every reason to believe Penn State will be able to run the ball very effectively.

Now, let's look at some areas of concern ...

THREE REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER

1. Allar is still very much an unknown and a work in progress.

There are NO guarantees with Allar. He might be awesome. He might be wildly inconsistent. He might be lousy, for all we know, and struggle badly reading defenses, adjusting to blitzes or whatever else.

We can talk all we want about Penn State's golden opportunity to contend for a national championship over the next couple of years. But the fact of the matter is that a huge part of that hope hinges on Allar living up to the hype.

A lot of quarterbacks don't.

I pointed out numerous reasons above why Penn State could still be very good even if Allar isn't great himself. But if we're talking about going 10-2 in the Big Ten, there will be games where he'll have to do a whole bunch of heavy lifting.

Unitl, you know, he actually proves that he can do that, then we have to remain at least a little bit skeptical.

Additionally, if something happens to Allar, all bets are off the table. Because after what we saw in the Blue-White Game, there's really no reason to be very confident that backup Beau Pribula can step in and play at a high enough level to win 10 games.

2. It's really not that hard to lose three games, especially with a tricky road contest early.

Penn State very easily could have lost the opener last year at Purdue. If the Boilermakers had completed one more pass late, they maybe could have run out the clock and held on to a late lead. Instead, the Lions got the ball back, and Sean Clifford led a game-winning TD drive.

Take a look at the schedule above. See that trip to Illinois on Sept. 16? Man, that game really could help decide the whole season.

It will be the first road start of Allar's career. That's a potential red flag right there.

Illinois made big strides last year under Bret Bielema, and nearly knocked off Michigan at the Big House (losing 19-17). Oh, and we shouldn't have to remind anybody about this fiasco the last time the teams met two years ago, which might have been one of the worst college football games ever played.

I could absolutely see Illinois beating Penn State this year. I doubt it will happen, and there's no way I would pick that outcome. But to deny the possibility would be foolish.

Anyway, if Penn State were to lose that game, then topping 9 1/2 wins could be very difficult. You gotta figure a loss at Ohio State, which is a 10 1/2-point favorite in early lines. The Lions certainly can beat Michigan at Beaver Stadium, but they also could lose that one, as well. The Wolverines are favored by 2 1/2 points.

The rest of the schedule is very manageable with regards to getting to 10 wins. Just be wary of the trip to Illinois.

3. There are legitimate concerns at wide receiver and special teams. 

These will be the two biggest question marks from a personnel standpoint entering the season.

Kent State transfer Dante Cephas is expected to arrive on campus this weekend, according to a report, and could emerge as the No. 1 receiver. Here's a look at him in action.

KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who had a brilliant finish last year with an 88-yard TD catch in the Rose Bowl, will challenge Cephas for the No, 1 spot.

Truthfully, though, it's possible Penn State will not have a legit No. 1 Big Ten wide receiver. And while that may not be a problem in most games, it very well could be against Ohio State and Michigan. If it's a problem against anybody else, too, then a third loss is certainly possible.

The Lions also have to replace starting punter Barney Amor and place-kicker Jake Pinegar. They brought in some transfers in punter Riley Thompson (Florida Atlantic) and kicker Alex Felkins (Columbia), but those two have never been in the kind of pressure that they'll face in the Big Ten.

If a big game comes down to a special teams situation, such as a mid-range field goal, there's just no way of knowing right now if the Lions have the guy who can make the play.

GIGER'S PICK

I'm already on record predicting Penn State to go 10-2, so I'm fully on board with taking the over of 9 1/2 wins.

But ...

I think I've addressed enough concerns up above to think that 9-3 could be a real possibility, as well. Anything less than that, and this would end up being a hugely disappointing season for Penn State.

As long as Allar can get off to a good start, stay healthy and make strides throughout the season, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic for a 10-2 season, or perhaps even 11-1.