BALTIMORE -- Andrew McCutchen walked into the visitor's clubhouse of Camden Yards Sunday morning, heard the music being played and stopped. After a few darts of his eyes to survey the room -- exaggerated for comedic effect -- he went to change the music playing. Gone was Ricky Martin's 'Livin' La Vida Loca,' on came Green Neon DJ's 'Search & Rescue.'
Hey, he needed to mix things up before the game. A few hours later, he would mix things up to start the game with the Orioles, batting leadoff and coming around to score in the first inning.
The Pirates could certainly use a spark at the top of the lineup, and based on comments by Ben Cherington on his weekly radio show Sunday, it sounds like the Pirates will be using Ke'Bryan Hayes more in the middle of the order rather than at the top of the lineup. Hayes does a great job putting bat to ball -- his 14.6% whiff rate puts him in the top 5% in baseball -- but that hadn't translated to the results the team has been looking for out of the leadoff spot.
In fact, the Pirates haven't gotten a whole lot from their leadoff hitters ever since Oneil Cruz hit the injured list last month.
Cruz was the Pirates' first choice for the job coming into the year, and he showed improved plate discipline to make himself the perfect type of player for that job. In 2023, the ideal leadoff hitter is someone who gets on base at a high clip, has speed to steal bases and has power in his back pocket in case the bottom of the order strings together a couple hits. Cruz was all of that. He had a .375 on-base percentage, stole three bases in his nine games played and his raw power is among the absolute best in the sport.
Then one bad slide later against the White Sox and the Pirates were left looking for a Plan B.
In the month of May, Pirates leadoff hitters have slashed just .152/.250/.174 over 52 trips to the plate. That's the fourth-lowest OBP of all teams this month and the second-lowest OPS. Most of those at-bats went to Hayes, but in the 18 plate appearances that went to someone else, they went 1-for-16 with a single, a walk and a hit by pitch. If you want to diagnose what's gone wrong with this offense in May, starting at the top would be a good place to look.
That's why McCutchen got a look up top Sunday, and while that first inning knock was the only hit he had on the day, it did spark a much-needed first inning run. McCutchen hadn't batted first for the Pirates since Aug. 13, 2011, but the Pirates were looking for someone who was going to give them a good at-bat up top.
With that in mind, who are some other guys who could fit that mold of a good leadoff hitter?
Connor Joe immediately comes to mind. I went in-depth last week about the swing changes he's made to tap into his power, which probably makes him best suited for somewhere in the middle of the lineup. But that .356 OBP would definitely help things get started in the first inning, and maximizing the number of at-bats he gets could only be a good thing.
Joe is also seeing more pitches than almost anyone with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, averaging 4.56 pitches per trip to the plate, good for third in all of baseball. He has a great batting eye and he has the lowest chase rate of all qualified hitters. Those are great traits for a leadoff hitter. Even if he doesn't get on base, he can make the pitcher work hard right out of the gate.
Do you know who is second in baseball in chase rate and is also in the top 10 for pitches per plate appearance? Jack Suwinski.
Suwinski is in a bit of rut at the moment, as he has hit just .132 with a .493 and 19 strikeouts during this 13-game stretch where the Pirates have lost 11. He's also had some long at-bats during that stretch, battling but eventually just falling short. He's been streaky throughout his major-league career, and obviously you would prefer consistency at the top of the order. But with Bryan Reynolds, McCutchen and Carlos Santana the usual 2-3-4 hitters, that gives Suwinski some nice protection in the order and may make managers more hesitant to go to a lefty whenever he comes up to bat.
It may be cheating, but I wouldn't close the door on Hayes yet. His .280 expected batting average is in the 80th percentile in the league, and while that's usually a more descriptive stat than predictive, it shows he has had some good at-bats that haven't resulted in hits.
There's also the speed angle with Ji Hwan Bae and Tucupita Marcano. Neither are seeing a lot of pitches (Bae averages 3.71, Marcano just 3.11), but Marcano has a .344 OBP and Bae can spark offense on the basepaths. Bae's probably not a great choice until he boosts his .296 OBP, but wouldn't those stolen bases mean more if it was the heart of the order coming up rather than Austin Hedges?
Then there is the guy Derek Shelton turned to Sunday, McCutchen. He's done this role before. He's done it well. He's even done it fairly recently with the Phillies. He has a 14.7% walk rate, doesn't chase often and sees 4.17 pitches per trip to the plate.
And while he's been able to get on base fairly consistently throughout the year, the slugging percentage has dipped this month. That doesn't mean the power won't come back, but for now, why not lean into the OBP part of his game?
FANGRAPHS
The Pirates' best option for a leadoff hitter is likely going to be on the injured list until August. They're going to need to continue to be creative in trying to replace him until he comes back. It may take a middle of the order hitter out of their normal spot, but they have options for someone to bat up top. If they start to get production out of that spot like they did in April, it would go a long way towards breaking out of their current offensive rut.
