We are entering the final homestretch of the 2023 offseason, with training camps beginning in one month's time and actual, real football being played for the first time since the winter.
That also rings true for our fantasy football leagues, which will once again be re-activated in one month's time as the smack talk between friends, colleagues, and those in between returns as the race for supremacy begins with our leagues' drafts.
I love fantasy football, and it's the only fantasy sport I dive into on a consistent basis. I've been playing it for about 10 years and have won some titles and have had some dud seasons to match.
So, like the obsessive fantasy football fan I am, I'd be lying to say I haven't started to skim the internet space for some pre-preseason mock drafts and rankings to try to get ahead of my competition for my draft.
That said, there is one trend I have noticed with respect to the Steelers: Their skill players are not retaining value within most boards.
Using the FantasyPros draft consensus, which has taken 82 fantasy football experts' rankings and compiled them into one sheet of averages, don't anticipate any Steelers going within the first round of your league's draft.
The overall consensus for standard leagues -- those that award zero points per reception -- has Najee Harris valued as the Steelers' highest-ranked player, at 21st overall and as the 12th-best running back. You would have to scroll to the 79th overall spot within the consensus to find George Pickens as the Steelers' highest-ranked wide receiver and 36th among receivers in standard scoring. Diontae Johnson rolls in right behind his teammate at 80th overall and the 37th best receiver for drafting.
Last season, Harris finished as RB12 with 182.5 fantasy points in standard leagues. Pickens was WR31 with 114.5 points, and Johnson WR46 with 94.7 points.
Pat Freiermuth checks in as the 8th overall tight end among standard rankings, though that rings in at 87th overall. Tight ends are not nearly valued as running backs and wide receivers unless your name is Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, who rank 11th and 18th overall, respectively, in standard league draft rankings. Last season, Freiermuth finished as TE12 with 85.2 points, per the consensus.
The Steeler who is shoved way down the list is Kenny Pickett, who ranks as the 22nd quarterback on FantasyPros' consensus board. This finishes behind Green Bay's Jordan Love and the Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford outside of the top 20.
Pickett finished as QB28 and posted a scoring average of 12.2 fantasy points per game in standard leagues last season. Obviously, a big part of this placement is due to him not starting until Week 5.
Here are where those aforementioned Steelers rank among their positions from various outlets, with standard scoring rules applied, for this year's fantasy football drafting:
NAJEE HARRIS
• FantasyPros consensus: 21st overall, RB12.
• ESPN: 31st overall, RB15.
• CBS Sports consensus: 28th overall, RB13.
• Yahoo: 30th overall, RB15.
GEORGE PICKENS
• FantasyPros consensus: 79th overall, WR36
• ESPN: 87th overall, WR39
• CBS Sports consensus: 77th overall, WR34.
• Yahoo: 64th overall, WR25.
DIONTAE JOHNSON
• FantasyPros consensus: 80th overall, WR37.
• ESPN: 45th overall, WR23.
• CBS Sports consensus: 76th overall, WR30.
• Yahoo: 108th overall, WR40.
PAT FREIERMUTH
• FantasyPros consensus: 87th overall, TE8.
• ESPN: 88th overall, TE8.
• CBS Sports consensus: 96th overall, TE8.
• Yahoo: 112th overall, TE10.
KENNY PICKETT
• FantasyPros consensus: 156th overall, QB22.
• ESPN: 172nd overall, QB23.
• CBS Sports consensus: N/R (not ranked inside the top 200 overall), QB24.
• Yahoo: 125th overall, QB22.
And, here are where the Steelers' defense and special teams unit and kicker Chris Boswell check in within the standard rankings for 2023:
STEELERS D/ST
• FantasyPros consensus: D/ST11.
• ESPN: D/ST7.
• CBS Sports consensus: D/ST6.
• Yahoo: D/ST15.
CHRIS BOSWELL
• FantasyPros consensus: K19.
• ESPN: N/R (not ranked inside the top 20).
• CBS Sports consensus: K12.
• Yahoo: K26.
Obviously, results in real-life NFL football are not indicative of how good a player would be from a fantasy football perspective, and vice-versa. This should not be meant to say Pickett is the 22nd-best QB in football or Harris is the 12th-best running back, and so forth. And, playing in half-PPR (one-half points per reception) or full PPR (one point per reception) leagues will skew these rankings, especially for Harris, Pickens, Johnson, and Freiermuth, so feel free to adjust for the quantity of receptions versus the value of touchdowns, depending on your scoring system.
Harris being placed around or just outside the top-12 would indicate he would be best drafted as your second pick. I play in full PPR leagues and tend to lean receiver heavy early -- I was lucky enough to get Cooper Kupp and Kelce with my first two picks last season, and I made it to the semifinal -- but if you're playing in a standard or half-PPR league, Harris might be of service to you in the second round based on his season projection. Depending on how many managers or participants you have in your league -- the typical league has eight, 10, or 12 -- Harris could be available in varying stages of the second round. If you really want Harris, that will have to be monitored depending on your draft slotting.
The discrepancy between Johnson and Pickens as the Steelers' highest-valued fantasy wide receiver is intriguing. On one hand, it's a safe bet that Johnson will not be void of a receiving touchdown again this season, thus inherently bringing him more value from his WR46 finish from last year. On the other, Pickens is a strong candidate to have a strong sophomore season, could be a massive beneficiary to Pickett's development at quarterback and, subsequently, the big-play piece for the Steelers given the addition of Allen Robinson and return of Calvin Austin.
ESPN firmly believes in a resurgence for Johnson. Here is what their staff wrote in their 2023 outlook blurb for him:
"Only one player in NFL history has gone a full season without a single TD despite catching at least 85 passes. That man is Johnson. The 2019 third-round pick finished no lower than 10th among WRs in snaps, routes and targets, while also handling 10 end zone targets (13th-most). Johnson continues to struggle with efficiency (his 6.50 YPT is dead last among 53 WRs with 200-plus targets over the last three seasons), but his volume has remained high and the TD deficiency was an outlier (he scored 20 TDs during his first three seasons). Especially with Kenny Pickett likely in for some Year 2 progression, Johnson is well positioned for a rebound campaign. The 26-year-old is a fringe WR2."
And here is what ESPN's staff wrote in their outlook blurb for Pickens:
"Pickens is one of the top breakout candidates at wide receiver after an up-and-down rookie campaign. The 2022 second-round pick finished 17th at the position in routes but only 48th in targets. Pickens' volume was limited by a vertical-heavy role (his 14.7 aDOT ranked third), but his efficiency was solid (9.5 YPT ranked 11th). Pickens' target volume inexplicably barely changed when Chase Claypool was traded last season (he never cleared six targets in a game after that point), but it figures to increase in his second NFL season. The 22-year-old's downfield role makes him more valuable in non-PPR, but especially if second-year QB Kenny Pickett makes a leap, Pickens has a shot at flex value (or better) in all formats."
Meanwhile, the inverse is predicted by Yahoo, which has Pickens as WR25 and Johnson as WR40.
I would value Pickens about where ESPN does, but I would slot Johnson is as more of a solid flex with the potential for production as the second-best receiver on your team. It would have to take a substantial leap from Pickett for either receiver to jump into WR2 conversation, but which one will it be? The offense will be intent on running the ball, as Matt Canada said during minicamp, but it will also need to see strides from Pickett in order to get out from the bottom 10 in scoring and yards. If that happens, both will benefit in real life and in the fantasy football life.
Freiermuth is expected to be right behind Johnson and Pickens in targets and should be in position to be a top-10 fantasy tight end. His current average draft position is 99th overall, or as the ninth-highest tight end selected, so he would be worth a look after the top ones are off the board, in that next tier, and after you have shored up your starting running backs and receivers and, potentially, your quarterback.
Pickett's slotting would suggest he is best left on your waiver wire, from a fantasy perspective, unless you're keen on stashing a backup quarterback, you're banking on his improvements coming sooner rather than later, or you're among the unique ones who plays in a league that starts two quarterbacks. That isn't to say Pickett will not produce as a viable fantasy football QB1, but he will likely need time to develop into one throughout the season.