We are now just over a week away from the MLB Draft, which will take place July 9 in Seattle and where the Pirates will pick first overall.
If that reads pedantic, well, it's all anyone knows for sure right now about what will happen come next Sunday. That includes the Pirates, who are still building their draft board.
"We're into our third day upstairs," Ben Cherington said Saturday afternoon at PNC Park. "It's good. It's been great and getting deeper into it and there's a bunch of good players at the top of the board. It's an exciting time and we're going to get a chance to add a good player, it's one player at the top and we have to choose one, can't do more than that, so we'll take all the time we have between now and next Sunday to figure that out."
Throughout most of the buildup to this draft, most industry experts have pegged two LSU players, outfielder Dylan Crews and pitcher Paul Skenes, as the top in their class. Their stats this year bolster that case: Crews hit .426 with 18 home runs and a 1.280 OPS, all while boasting five legitimate tools. Skenes, considered by some to be a once-in-a-generation pitching prospect, struck out 209 over 122 2/3 innings while posting a 1.69 ERA.
But when considering who will go first overall, Cherington stated, "I wouldn't stop at two players." Other players the Pirates have been connected to include Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford and high school outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. Most mock drafts industry-wide have generally had the Pirates taking Crews or Skenes, however.
"The first choice is really important, to state the obvious," Cherington said. "Every team's job is to get as much total talent out of every draft as they can. Historically, when you have the first pick, the biggest portion of that is going to be for the first pick. We have to consider that. History says that's where the best player is going to come from. But the whole draft is important, and our job is to get as much as we can out of the whole draft."
If the goal is to maximize the whole draft, there are a couple ways the Pirates can go about that.
One is to repeat what they did in 2021: Select a player who will sign under the pick's slot value, allowing them to spread their draft pool to more players.
Henry Davis was at the top of the Pirates' draft board in 2021, but since he signed for less than the pick's value, they were able to also take high school pitchers Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler and give them more money to forgo college. Chandler is considered a top-10 prospect in the Pirates' system and Solometo recently cracked MLB Pipeline's top 100 list.
"We feel good about that process," Cherington said regarding 2021. "We feel good about where we are with it. The players you mentioned, some other guys we think will be major-leaguers, too. We think that draft is going to help the Pirates, and 20 years from now, we'll look back to see who the best players are. We need more time to determine that. We think that draft class is going to help the Pirates in a way we hoped it would, envisioned it."
Cherington assured that the Pirates will "spend our pool," something that team president Travis Williams also said recently. That totals $16,185,700, the third-largest since bonus pools were implemented in 2012. (They can also spend an additional $809,285 over that amount without penalty of future draft picks as part of the 5% overage rule).
If they go under-slot, that frees up money to try to take more prep players in the following rounds. Cherington agreed with league sources I've chatted about that batch of high schoolers available, saying it's "a relatively strong class." There could be opportunity there, the same way they grabbed someone like Solometo and Chandler.
Another way to use that nearly $17 million? Invest heavily in that first pick.
This applies mainly to Crews, who is seeking above-slot money even at No. 1 overall, according to a report by Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The first pick carries a value of $9,721,000, and going above that would likely take money away from other draft picks. Crews is regarded as one of the best draft prospects in some time, but last year's first overall pick, Jackson Holliday, signed for $8.19 million. In 2020, Spencer Torkelson technically signed over-slot, but just by $1,000 ($8,416,300, a record since 2012). What Crews reportedly wants is unprecedented.
The Pirates haven't gotten to the signing bonus part of their draft board, according to Cherington, but it's something to consider when weighing those two LSU players, who are expected to receive the two largest bonuses in this class.
Being a college player generally means they are closer to being major-league-ready, with some across the league theorizing they could potentially break through to the majors in 2023. That doesn't seem too likely on the Pirates' end, though.
"That would be pretty aggressive even for an advanced college player to consider," Cherington said. "I guess it has happened, but pretty aggressive. I think whoever we take, obviously, we believe is going to be a really good player and, hopefully, will have a chance to help us in the relatively near future. But we still need to keep in mind that future and making sure that we're not putting a player in a compromised position."
While a draft lottery adds uncertainty to when each team will pick, it's the Pirates' hope that they aren't going to be picking near the top of the order again anytime soon. That makes the importance of nailing that first pick even more vital. But they aren't going to draft with the belief that they can help sooner rather than later in mind.
"I think the players at the top of the board are going to tell us which direction to go more than where we are as a team," Cherington said. "We still have to think about best player. I believe that is always the case for every baseball team. It's just too hard, even if you're talking about a college player who might be a little closer than a high school player ... it's still ... a lot can happen in this game, even between this year and 12 months from now, a lot can happen to our team. And what the needs might be and what the fit might be. So I think we want to stick with best player available."
