SEATTLE -- Ben Cherington is going to make one of the most important decisions of his time as Pirates general manager to this point Sunday. It's quite possible that it could be one of his most defining moments, too.
Through another 100 loss season in 2022 and some luck in the first ever draft lottery, the Pirates have the first overall pick in the amateur draft for the second time in three years this Sunday, giving them another chance to add a blue-chip prospect.
The only question is who exactly that player will be. The Pirates have been connected to a few players, but the one commonality between mock drafts across the industry is nobody quite knows who the Pirates will take. Will it be one half of Louisiana State's 1-2 punch? Another collegiate player? Will they repeat last year and take the most advanced high school hitter?
Here's what we do know ahead of the decision:
HOW DOES THIS WORK?
Teams are capped in how much they can spend on a draft class through what is called a bonus pool. Every draft pick has a dollar figure attached to it, and the total of a team's picks through the first 10 rounds is their bonus pool. If a player does not sign, that money is forfeited and cannot be allocated elsewhere.
Most players do not sign for that pick's specific slot value, though, so teams will spread their pool money around with that in mind. In rounds 11-20, teams can spend up to $125,000 to sign a prospect without any penalty, but any amount over $125,000 counts against the bonus pool.
Teams can spend up to 5% over their bonus pool by just paying a tax. Anything more than that comes with a loss of draft picks, which has not happened since the league implemented this new system in 2012.
Pirates president Travis Williams recently told local reporters that the team has "no restrictions on spending" within the parameters of the bonus pool. In other words, they're going to spend all the money they can.
This year, the Pirates' pool is $16,185,700, the third-largest for any team since 2012. Most of that is tied to the first overall pick, which carries a slot value of $9,721,000. If the team was to theoretically go under-slot with the first pick -- like they did in 2021 whenever they took Henry Davis -- it offers great opportunity to sign high school players in later rounds who may be first-round talents but want large signing bonuses to forgo their college commitments. It worked out for the Pirates that year because Davis was the top player on their draft board
While most No. 1 picks do end up signing at least a little under slot, Spencer Torkelson did sign over-slot in 2020 after being taken first overall by the Tigers, albeit by less than $1,000.
WHO ARE THEY CONSIDERING?
While it doesn't necessarily mean there isn't a theoretical mystery dark horse that has been off everyone's radar, the focus for weeks has been around five players, going off of mock drafts and what league sources have said to DK Pittsburgh Sports:
Outfielder Dylan Crews, LSU: Crews has been considered the top hitter, if not player, in this draft class for pretty much the entire build up through this draft. A five-tool player, the 21-year-old center fielder seems to be as safe of a prospect that has come through the draft in years. He may not have an out-of-this-world tool, but he is very well-rounded.
Crews led the Tigers' offense this year by slashing .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs in 344 trips to the plate.
That high ceiling/floor combo is expensive, though. According to reports, Crews is seeking an over-slot deal, something that is almost unheard of for a No. 1 pick (unless you seriously consider Torkelson's $1,000 a huge get). That may not necessarily be a dealbreaker for the Pirates, but they'll have to consider how many eggs they want to put into one basket, regardless of how talented the player is.
Right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes, LSU: Most outlets that cover prospects and the draft have Crews and Skenes as the top two players, and not always in that order. Considered to be the best pitching prospect to enter the draft since Stephen Strasburg by some, Skenes sits 98 mph on his fastball and has a slider that averages 2,600 RPM of spin that translates to a foot of break.
Just 21 years old, Skenes led the pitching for the Tigers' championship run by going 12-2 with a 1.69 ERA and 209 strikeouts over 122 2/3 innings, many of which were against the daunting SEC.
Skenes is a two-pitch pitcher, so he will need to develop at least a changeup before reaching the major-league level. Taking a pitcher first overall is also riskier than a position player in principle because one injury could sideline them for over a year or impact the stuff. From a pure talent standpoint, though, Skenes is the type of pitcher that is worth investing one of the first picks in the draft.
"If I'm the Pirates, I don't know how you pass on a kid that you may not see for another 20 years in the draft."
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 2, 2023
Dan O'Dowd thinks Paul Skenes is a generational prospect 👀 pic.twitter.com/qas4GAkAwZ
Outfielder Wyatt Langford, Florida: Langford has picked up some steam as a dark horse of late if you believe betting odds and mock draft whispers. While he isn't as well-rounded as Crews, I've heard from one analyst that Langford has the edge whenever it comes to power. It's also expected he would sign significantly cheaper than either LSU player, which would free up money in the draft for another first-round talent in a later round.
The 21-year-old left fielder slashed .373/.498/.784 with 21 home runs and 57 RBIs over 303 plate appearances, mostly against a very difficult SEC.
There's a compelling case to make about Langford, who is undoubtedly one of the top three or so prospects available in this draft. The question is just how big a gap is there between him and Crews/Skenes?
High school outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins: Considered by many to be the top two high school players in this draft class (the order varies so let's lump them together here), both are expected to sign for less than either LSU player, which would free up significant money for the rest of the draft. They have the potential to be just as good as Crews or Langford, but there's significantly more risk because they haven't played college ball.
Clark has the type of skillset that makes him a perfect choice for center field, featuring great speed and a 70-grade arm, according to Baseball America's report. At the plate, he has quick hands and can generate power through his bat speed.
Jenkins projects to be an average runner once he fills out, so he is probably better suited for a corner. He's strong, though, and that sweet left-handed swing generates loft and power.
The top high school players need to be considered for the first pick, as they should every year. The question is if the money saved for other rounds is worth the high floors of the college players?
WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE DRAFT?
The discussion has been on the first overall pick, for very obvious reasons, but there is a whole draft, after all.
"The first choice is really important, to state the obvious," Cherington said. "Every team's job is to get as much total talent out of every draft as they can. Historically, when you have the first pick, the biggest portion of that is going to be for the first pick. We have to consider that. History says that's where the best player is going to come from. But the whole draft is important, and our job is to get as much as we can out of the whole draft."
The draft lottery applies to only the first round, so the Pirates will be the third pick in every subsequent round. They were also awarded a Competitive Balance B pick after the second round. The team's picks through the first 10 rounds (with slot bonuses) are:
1st: No. 1 ($9,721,000)
2nd: No. 42 ($2,045,900)
Comp. B: No. 67: ($1,128,200)
3rd: No. 73 ($990,300)
4th: No. 104 ($646,900)
5th: No. 140 ($455,600)
6th: No. 167 ($351,400)
7th: No. 197 ($273,800)
8th: No. 227 ($216,900)
9th: No. 257 ($184,500)
10th: No. 287 ($171,200)
I've heard around the league that this is a strong class for high school players, something that Cherington agreed with when I posed the question last week. That's important because it's high school players who traditionally get the over-slot money because they have college commitments as negotiating leverage. If the Pirates want to take advantage of that, drafting a college senior or two (who don't have any negotiating power and generally come cheap) is a way to free up pool money.
In recent drafts, the Pirates have targeted projectable prep pitchers (Jared Jones in 2020, Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler in 2021) and college pitchers coming off down years (J.P Massey, Hunter Barco and Derek Diamond in 2022) as bigger targets in the second through 10th rounds.
WHAT'S HAPPENS MOVING FORWARD?
Nick Gonzales and Davis, this regime's first two first-round picks, are both currently in the majors and will likely lose their rookie status in the coming weeks once they receive enough plate appearances. Luis Ortiz, the team's top pitching prospect coming into the year, has already lost his prospect status. Quinn Priester and Endy Rodríguez have yet to make their major-league debuts, but both could still lose their prospect status if they get enough major-league reps.
The point being that while the major-league team should have a collection of promising young players, the Pirates' actual farm system could be on the leaner side if the team doesn't get this pick right.
To be clear, whoever the Pirates take will be considered one of the organization's top prospects, if not the team's top overall prospect, day one. The effects of the pick and the draft class won't be known for a couple years at the very least.
But there is no way to downplay it: Sunday is going to be one of the most important days for the franchise in some time.
