Come Wednesday morning amid the cascading hills of Saint Vincent College, the Steelers' players will report to training camp via sports cars, SUVs, over-sized trucks, even scooters and cycles ... but sorry, no sexy entrances via school buses, construction vehicles or choppers are currently anticipated.
Which isn't to suggest a collective takeoff wouldn't be welcomed by all concerned.
Look, it's time. I'd say it's past time but for the not-so-small matter of replacing a Canton-bound franchise quarterback. And even in that context, with Ben Roethlisberger retiring in the winter of 2021, with Mitch Trubisky initially signed to supplant him, then Kenny Pickett being drafted, and even with the awkward rookie year it'd take Pickett to become acclimated to the NFL ... man, there hasn't been a playoff victory for this proud franchise since Jan. 15, 2017, when Chris Boswell's six field goals kicked out the Chiefs in Kansas City, Mo.
That was a divisional round matchup. An AFC championship loss to the Patriots in Foxborough, Mass., would ensue. As would three years of one-and-dones and three other none-and-dones.
By the time the ball flies on the 2023 season, it'll have been six years, six months and 60-ish days since the last W that really mattered. The longest such stretch since the Chuck Noll-Bill Cowher-Mike Tomlin lineage began more than a half-century ago.
Again, it's past time. And ... man, I'm going to hate myself for spouting this one too early, but I think it'll end in January. I really do.
I'm not about to get into any heavy prognostication just yet -- season record, divisional finish, conference finish, etc. -- but I'm already feeling comfortable that this team's got at least one bleeping playoff victory to it: Finish among the top two in what'll be a tight though far from overwhelming AFC North, qualify with a decent enough seed that a fairly even matchup follows and, you know, win.
One game. One W that really matters. It'd be, to borrow Tomlin's own terminology from a riveting speech he made to his players a month ago upon breaking up minicamp, 'a reasonable expectation.'
My eight reasons why it'll happen, in ascending order of importance:
8. WHAT'S THIS DIVISION, REALLY?
Without engaging in some deep breakdown of the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, I'm not exactly seeing a minefield ahead. Cincinnati's got the premier player in Joe Burrow and the electric overall offense, but there are significant questions on defense, especially in the secondary. Baltimore's still trying to resurrect a Lamar Jackson no one's seen for a spell. Cleveland's got Nick Chubb but the consensus up there remains outright delusional regarding pretty much all else. None of these three had some mega-offseason, and none of the three was young enough to be viewed as on the rise.
The division isn't everything -- just six of 17 games -- but it's a lot. As I mentioned above, finish in the top two, and that's an entry. The Steelers of 2022 split with each of the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, including beating the first two on the road. If this edition's an upgrade over that one, improving upon 3-3 should be ... oh, 'a reasonable expectation.' And an eminently doable one.
7. GENERAL URGENCY
It's an intangible, I know, and it's an easy eye-roller on top of that. But ever since the Steelers' stunning 11-0 start to the 2020 COVID-clouded season, this team's had an underlying, unspoken sense of a low bar about it. Heck, even now, the Las Vegas betting apps peg them as having a 36% chance of finishing last in the AFC North, worst of anyone.
"It's time," Cam Heyward told me at minicamp. "It's time."
6. A TRUE NO. 1 RECEIVER?
Diontae Johnson isn't it ... unless he is, and he'll have a contract year hanging over him throughout. Might even motivate him to run forward.
George Pickens isn't it ... unless Matt Canada utilizes him within a route tree that's got at least a twig or two for branches.
But my goodness, neither of those scenarios should be seen as surreal. Both have the talent, both have the drive and, in Pickens' case, the still-super-high ceiling over his helmet. And even if neither rises all the way up, the expansion of options -- Allen Robinson makes a heck of a No. 3, and a healthy Calvin Austin III could bring splash this offense hasn't had in far too long -- should allow for many more touchdowns scored from outside the red zone than ... um, two?
"We've got the people, the depth," Austin told me at minicamp. "The diversity, too. We all give you a different look. That's hard to defend."
If it isn't, fire the coordinator and my No. 6 reason on this list rockets to No. 1, right?
Oh, come on, I had to.
5. TIGHT! ENDS!
Because Canada's still here, I'm cringy about pushing this too far. That's not a dig. That's just pointing to Pat Freiermuth registering all of two receiving touchdowns in 2022 while the rest of the football world sees him, almost universally, as one of the game's most gifted players at his position.
That said, the tight end room's now bursting at the sleds with Freiermuth, monstrous Darnell Washington, reliable Zach Gentry and don't-call-him-a-fullback wild card Connor Heyward.
"All kinds of weapons, different weapons," Heyward told me at minicamp. "We've got Muth, who's one of the best in the biz, and look at what else we've got now, too."
The receiving, the running game, the gadgetry, the depth ... I mean, it's got to get schemed smartly, but yeah.
4. THE DEFENSIVE FRONT
No, I'm not citing this as a strength, necessarily. But remember, that's not the subject at hand. Rather, it's improvement.
The retention of Larry Ojunjobi ensured Cam Heyward wouldn't be abandoned, as he'd been in 2021, and the drafting of Keeanu Benton presents at least the promise of a nose tackle capable of both stuffing the run and penetrating when needed. And, not to lay too much on a second-rounder who's far from assured of starting -- Karl Dunbar told me that at minicamp, emphatically pointing to Montravius Adams atop his depth chart -- but it'd make a massive difference if the kid comes through. Which a lot of folks on South Water Street feel he will.
Now, as for inside linebacker ...
The front seven does take all seven, not just the D-line and two of the NFL's most productive edge rushers in T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. And, without getting into where Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts and Mark Robinson rank positionally within the league -- they're commonly graded among the lowest -- and without even getting into the richly plausible scenario that Omar Khan might still find another in the coming weeks, I'll simply repeat again that the subject at hand is improvement. And what's already here is better than any combination of Myles Jack (in his injured form), Devin Bush (in any form) and Robert Spillane.
Put it this way: The days of pushing Minkah Fitzpatrick up to the line of scrimmage to serve as a tourniquet against the run appear to be over.
3. T.J.'S FINE
No one needs to hear from me that this team is one thing with Watt on the field, entirely another without him.
He told me at minicamp his health is 'beyond 100 percent' and detailed a different approach he's taken this offseason toward ensuring he'll start all 17 games, saying, "When you're younger, you can go in and hang-clean 400 pounds in February, whereas now it doesn't really make sense to do something like that. There's no point in going -- for lack of a better term -- balls to the wall early in the offseason. It's a ramp-up period. It's working on mobility, on flexibility, ankles, knees, hips ... as opposed to just throwing on certain amounts of weights. The goal's to be available, to be peaking at the right time."
Between Watt and Highsmith, is 30 sacks too many to forecast? Too low?
2. THE RUNNING GAME
It's one thing to average 146.4 yards rushing per game, and it's quite another to construct a 7-2 finish on top of that foundation. It's the latter that convinces me that Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will be that much more productive this season. Because the offense did that with a quarterback still flicking every other pass into the seats to avoid interceptions and, if we're being honest, with a left side of the line that was leaky throughout.
Neither should be an issue anymore.
"We feel like there's a rhythm we established," Warren told me at minicamp, referring to himself and Harris. "We complemented each other. And that goes for the line and everybody else. We became a running offense."
Right. But they can be better. There can be more explosion. There can be more consistency on first down. And, never to omit Canada, there can be a lot less predictability as to which downs will bring a run.
It's crazy for me, to an extent, that this facet won't top this list, but it just can't.
1. KENNY
I've penned pieces patterned this way for years, and I'd invariably prioritized a certain No. 7 at quarterback as the No. 1 priority in ever conceivable context. Well, that's now No. 8.
It's obvious, sure. But it's OK to underscore the obvious occasionally.
As Pickett himself would tell me on the final day of minicamp, after I'd brought up at his stall what a difference a full offseason of No. 8 being the No. 1 quarterback in the fold must've made, he replied, "Oh, no. There's nothing else that's even close."
He'll be better, too. Markedly better, I believe. He already is that, in fact, to watch him and to hear those around him. And if all he achieves in Year 2 is to improve the Steelers' passing offense from 24th in the NFL at 200.8 yards per game to, say, 14th -- which would require only an additional 20 yards per game, by the way -- the impact he'll have on the running game might be even more significant, since opponents would finally have to back off the box a bit.
To say nothing of the impact resonating off the running game onto the passing game.
To say nothing of the impact on time of possession, thus spelling the Steelers' defense.
To say nothing of ... I can't even quantify the intangibles here. I really can't.
Let's just leave it here: Kenny'll be markedly better. Including in his first playoff victory.
