The Penguins' defense corps will have quite the new look this season.
After acquiring Erik Karlsson over the weekend in a three-team deal with the Sharks and Canadiens that also saw Jan Rutta and Jeff Petry shipped out, the Penguins' defense pairs could look something like this when the season opens:
Ryan Graves - Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson - Erik Karlsson
P.O Joseph - Chad Ruhwedel
Regardless of who is listed on the first or second pairing on the right side in the lineup between Karlsson or Kris Letang, Kyle Dubas made it clear in his press conference Monday that both have the potential to play top-pairing minutes.
"It allows us to have one of those two players on the ice for at least 50 minutes of the game, hopefully a little bit less (laughs). But you know, it's up to us," Dubas said. "I think both are extraordinarily well-conditioned. Kris' competitiveness is well-renowned in here, and I think Erik's competitiveness will stand out as everyone in the room gets to know him. But both have shown in the past to be able to take on massive minutes. I think we want to be cognizant of that as we go through the regular season."
Either way, Karlsson is going to have a significant role on the blue line. The defending Norris Trophy-winner, he's the top offensive defenseman in the game today. He's coming off of a 101-point season, despite playing for the bottom-feeder Sharks. His defensive game leaves a lot to be desired, but that doesn't mean the Penguins are adding a liability to their back end.
Let's take a look at some of Karlsson's results from last season:
• Something Dubas brought up Monday was that in conversations this offseason with Mike Sullivan, Dubas felt that the Penguins needed to get better at moving the puck out of their own end. In Karlsson, they believe they have the guy to do that.
"Erik, I think he's one of the elite players in that regard in the NHL," Dubas said. "Even though he's in his early 30s, he continues to be one of the top skaters in the NHL, and obviously his production and offense is quite prolific. He's very competitive, very motivated person wants to come here and help our team."
The data backs that up. According to the analytics company Sportlogiq that tracks micro-stats, Karlsson had the second-highest success rate of controlled zone-exits at five-on-five at 76.3%, trailing only Roman Josi's absurd 92.5%.
• Another micro-stats website, AllThreeZones, had Karlsson at 9.89 successful defensive zone-exits per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Letang led the Penguins in that category at 8.43.
• Karlsson had 81 takeaways last season in all situations, the most among Sharks defensemen by nearly double. That was the third-most takeaways of any defenseman in the league last season, trailing Adam Fox and Jaccob Slavin, each with 88. For additional context, Letang's 47 takeaways led Penguins defensemen last season.
• Karlsson's 101 giveaways led defensemen last season. He also played 2,100 minutes, more than any other defenseman with the exception of Drew Doughty. When you look at Karlsson's rate of giveaways, it isn't quite as egregious. Among defensemen who played at least 200 minutes last season, Karlsson's rate of 2.89 giveaways per 60 minutes of ice time is only the 12th-highest rate of giveaways. Letang's 3.17 per 60 minutes ranked ninth.
• The Sharks were awful last year, and their minus-87 goal differential was the fourth-worst in the league. For all Karlsson's shortcomings in his own end, and despite there being a weak supporting cast, the Sharks were a net positive in goals when Karlsson was on the ice. He was the only player on the team who finished with a positive total goal differential, a plus-11. When Karlsson was on the ice, 51.9% of all goals scored were in the Sharks' favor. No other Shark had an on-ice goals-for percentage above 40%.
• Chances from the opposing teams were more limited when Karlsson was on the ice. That's a factor in that goal differential, not just Karlsson managing to outscore everyone. When Karlsson was on the ice at five-on-five, opponents were limited to 55.15 shot attempts per 60 minutes, the second-best rate among Sharks defensemen. His 29.33 shots on goal against per 60 minutes at five-on-five also ranked second-best among Sharks defensemen, as did his 3.45 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
• How? It turns out that being really good at possessing the puck can go a long way. Karlsson did just that. Per Sportlogiq, Karlsson had the sixth-highest possession time of any defenseman last season and the fifth-highest offensive-zone possession time among defensemen. In terms of possession-driving plays (plays with control to move the puck up ice, not dumping and chasing), Karlsson ranked second among all defensemen.
• What Karlsson can do for the Penguins' power play is especially intriguing. The Sharks' top power play unit last season consisted of Karlsson, Timo Meier, Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl and Alexander Barbanov. Karlsson attempted shots the second-most frequently of any of them, at a rate of 24.44 per 60 minutes. On the Penguins, only Rickard Rakell (26.63) and Evgeni Malkin (26.03) attempted shots more frequently on the power play last season. The Penguins' two most frequent power play quarterbacks -- Letang (18.95) and Petry (19.14) -- weren't even close to what Karlsson was attempting. When the Penguins' streaky power play last season was doing well, they had a shot-first mentality, but especially from the point. When shots were coming from the point, in addition to the scoring threat it creates in itself, it also just creates more movement for the rest of the unit and more rebound opportunities for those in front. If Karlsson can keep getting shot attempts off on the power play the way he did in San Jose, it benefits everyone in front of him.
