UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Penn State has a chance to enjoy an amazing season, one that perhaps could culminate with the program's first College Football Playoff berth.
We can -- and will -- break down personnel, game matchups, strategies and everything else as the season goes on.
But with a little more than a week before the opener, here are three burning questions that most, if not all, Penn State fans should be considering.
1. Is James Franklin a good enough gameday coach?
Let's face it, no matter how big of a Penn State fan you are, or how excited you are about the season, this question still pops up a good bit for either you or your friends who are Nittany Lion fans.
Franklin has done a marvelous job of recruiting top-tier talent to Penn State.
Franklin has done a marvelous job overseeing a development program that gets guys ready for the NFL.
Franklin has won a whole lot of games.
But ...
Can he win the big games? The BIGGEST games? The games that matter most and will have the largest impact on the primary goal?
Can he beat Ohio State and Michigan? Make that: Can he beat Ohio State OR Michigan? Because he probably only needs to knock off one of them this year in order to make the playoff, as long as there are no slipups anywhere else.
Penn State fans have every right to be fully confident in the fact that their team will have as much talent on the field as the Buckeyes or Wolverines. This is as talented of a team -- on paper -- as Franklin has had during his tenure, and the Lions should be able to match up personnel-wise with just about anybody.
"When you talk about question marks leading into the season ... I think we probably have less question marks this year than we have in previous seasons," Franklin said.
But fans also have every right to question if Franklin can get the job done against Ohio State. He's gone just 1-8 against the Buckeyes, and that lone victory was a stunning miracle in 2016, made possible by a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown. One can even make the case that a boneheaded decision by Urban Meyer to rush a long field goal attempt lost that game, as opposed to anything Franklin did to win it.
Penn State has competed very well against Ohio State year in and year out under Franklin. It just hasn't found a way to beat the Buckeyes other than that one time. Franklin has built the program in a way to where it can compete physically and strategically with the Buckeyes.
But, time and again, the games have turned out disappointing. Be it blowing a two-touchdown lead at the Horsehoe in the fourth quarter in 2017, or losing a lead and collapsing at home in the final 9 minutes last year. There also was the crushing 27-26 loss at home in 2018, which ended with Penn State calling a horrible fourth-and-5 running play with Miles Sanders instead of giving Trace McSorley a chance to make something happen.
That call, made by then-offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne, is one infamous example of why a lot of Penn State fans don't trust Franklin with the game on the line against an elite opponent.
There have been other examples of odd decisions on fake punts or fourth downs, etc., that have led to a lot of head scratching and second guessing about Franklin as a gameday coach.
Michigan is another story. Franklin has gone 3-6 against the Wolverines and has fared better lately, going 3-3 since 2017. But there have been three horrific losses -- 49-10 in 2016, 42-7 in 2018 and 41-17 last year -- that have indicated the Lions weren't at all ready for the Wolverines.
Those three terrible losses, however, all came at the Big House. This year, the Wolverines visit Beaver Stadium, where Franklin beat them in 2017 and 2019.
While Penn State's program has been built to try and beat a dynamic team like Ohio State, we saw last year that the Lions were not prepared for the rugged, physical challenge presented by Michigan. The Wolverines ran for 400 yards and humiliated Penn State's defense.
"We got to get bigger. We’re undersized at some spots," Franklin said after that loss, opening up about an internal issue in the program.
"Everybody thinks they’re Aaron Donald. They’re not. Everybody sees Aaron Donald playing undersized. Everybody thinks they’re that guy. And there’s been one of those guys in the last 100 years of football. We need to be more physical, work on our technique, our fundamentals."
Because of what they learned last year, the Lions should have a much better game plan and showing against Michigan this year. And the fact that it's at home makes it a winnable game.
Ohio State is a road game, and the Lions could be double-digit underdogs. So that's probably not likely to be a win.
As we look into the future -- in potential playoff matchups -- the same questions about Franklin being able to beat Ohio State or Michigan will continue to be raised against the likes of Georgia, Alabama, LSU and Clemson.
Until Franklin proves that he can in fact beat those kinds of teams, pulling all the right strings during games, the questions about his gameday coaching abilities will continue to be a big part of his legacy.
2. Is this season 11-1 or bust?
Expectations are enormous this year. But we all should be able to agree that, for those expectations to be realized, Penn State is going to have to beat either Ohio State or Michigan in order to finish at least 11-1.
OK, so what if the Lions lose to both the Buckeyes and Wolverines? Again, like they did last year?
If we're sitting here looking at a 10-2 record in early December, will that be good enough? Because that will mean no playoff berth, yet again. And most likely losses in the two biggest games of the year, yet again.
Penn State finished 4-5 in 2020 and then 7-6 in 2021. Last year, the Lions didn't beat a single ranked opponent on the way to a 10-2 season. But since people were looking for a bounce-back kind of year, everybody seemed perfectly fine with being 10-2, even though it was a very hollow 10-2 with no real quality wins.
Now, Penn State did get a quality win in the Rose Bowl, pounding a top 10 Utah team. That victory -- presumed to be a terrific one even though Utah was probably overrated -- ignited everyone in the fan base.
Hey, an 11-2 record and Rose Bowl victory is a successful season NO MATTER WHAT!
So again, I ask: Will going 10-2 this year be enough, if the losses are in the two biggest games?
I mean, the same thing we criticize Franklin for -- not being able to win the big games -- would still be the case if the Lions fall to both the Buckeyes and Wolverines. And there's a chance, looking at the season schedule, that the Lions could win 10 games once again and still not beat a ranked opponent.
I can absolutely make a case that this year is indeed 11-1 or bust, based on the above criteria.
But I won't.
I picked Penn State to go 10-2. I believe the Lions will lose to both the Buckeyes and Wolverines. One, because the Ohio State game is in Columbus, and I never presume the Lions will win there. And two, because I think Michigan is just better than Penn State, and will find a way to win at Beaver Stadium.
The biggest reason, though, that I don't think this year is 11-1 or bust is, well, because of next year.
I have believed all along that 2024 -- not this season -- will be Penn State's year. Drew Allar will be back for a second season as the starting quarterback. Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will be back as juniors, along with linebacker Abdul Carter. That group, with even more experience, very well could lead what will be an extremely talented team to a deep run in a 12-team playoff, and perhaps even to a national championship.
There's a lot of hope for this year. But there are still serious questions, most notably being that Allar will be a first-year starting QB, and that he simply may not have good enough wide receivers to beat the very best opponents.
So, given all of that, 10-2 seems most likely to me.
Anything worse than that, then this would be a very disappointing season.
But the Lions don't need to go 11-1 and reach the playoff THIS YEAR in order for it to be successful.
3. What would happen to the team if Allar gets hurt?
For starters, Penn State isn't beating Ohio State or Michigan without Allar. So that's 10-2 at best right there.
If Beau Pribula is forced into action early in the season, an 8-4 record is not out of the realm of possibility. With all due respect to that young man, he's simply not Allar. We're not talking about playoff possibilities unless Allar is playing, and playing well.
I wrote extensively about all of this not long right here, so I'm not going to regurgitate all the same scenarios. The bottom line is that there's almost certain to be a big dropoff from Allar to Pribula with regards to what the offense can do. All of which is why the extensive reps Pribula has been getting in preseason camp can only help him and the entire offense, should something happen to Allar.
"Drew and Beau, obviously in year two, they look like guys that are year two in the same system mentally," Franklin said. "They look like guys year two physically. They both have gotten stronger. They have both gotten leaner. They have both gotten faster. They have gotten more confident with their reads, their accuracy, their decision-making, those types of things."
Even if Allar cannot play, the rest of the Penn State team should be good enough to win a lot of games. The running game should still be good, and the defense will be outstanding, so the Lions would still be in every game.
But again, we're not viewing this season merely through the scope of going 10-2. We're viewing this season on the possibility of going 11-1 and making the playoff, so anything and everything has to be viewed through that lens.
With a healthy and productive Allar, the sky is the limit for this squad.
If something happens to Allar, then all the hopes and dreams for this year will need to be put on hold.
