Kovacevic: Keller's aiming all his depth, dynamism at future Octobers

Mitch Keller wants 200 strikeouts. Needs two more.

He wants 200 innings. Needs 17 1/3 more.

He's been telling me that for months, beginning with a talk way back in Bradenton. The same dude who once blurted out to me several years ago that he expected to be the Pirates' staff ace that summer -- he sure wasn't -- was setting the stage for his next step. And all he'd achieve along the way was a first All-Star honor, career highs in most every statistical category and a bona fide place among Major League Baseball's best at his craft.

He's earned it, too. Kinda like this:

That's Jacob Young whiffing through a Keller cutter for the final out of the eighth inning on this gorgeous Thursday afternoon at PNC Park. Keller's final pitch, too. Nothing but zeroes. Two total hits. Seven strikeouts. One walk.

Pirates 2, Nationals 0.

"Man, he's become ... " Jason Delay, his batterymate, began telling me after this, before a pause. "He's become special. He really has."

Mm-hm. But it's not just because he's 12-9 with a 4.04 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, a .247 opponents' batting average, 198 strikeouts and 52 walks. It's not just because his innings rank fifth in the majors, his strikeouts ninth. And it's not just because he's succeeded -- as everyone in these parts has had to do for the better part of four decades -- against the current of constant losing.

Nope. It's that pitch I showed above.

Keller called it "a bad pitch," referencing both its location and movement. It was a cutter, according to MLB.com's Gameday, though Delay clarified for me, "It's really a slider," after which he added a grin that semi-supported his pitcher's self-evaluation.

But see, there's this: Keller appeared to have little left entering that eighth. The pitch count was only at 81, but the calendar's showing September, and the radar gun was showing a slight drop in velocity, to just below 93 mph. And considering he's capable of triple-digits, that's a red flag and a half.

So there was a meeting in the home dugout after the seventh: Oscar Marin, the pitching coach, and Radley Hadded, the game-planning coach, summoned Delay to ask his view. Radars can read velocity, but not firmness, not command, not break, not feel. Delay leveled with them both, and they chose to adjust Keller's arsenal for the eighth for additional cutters, curves, sweepers, even his sparsely used changeup. And that doubled down when Keller's first two fastballs of the inning arrived at 91 and 91.4 mph.

But the eighth came and went with 11 pitches for another 1-2-3.

"I think it was just being able to go out there and use all the pitches that I can use, just keeping them off balance," Keller would say. "When we get into this time of the year, we can use different pitches. Velocity isn't the primary thing. It's the execution of the pitches, making different pitches look like different things."

Which is what Keller insisted had Young confused, going from high heat to the cutter/slider that tunnels within a similar path from the point of release.

"Yeah, I mean, I, I think there were a couple of things that came into play," Shelton replied when I asked why he pulled Keller three outs shy of a shutout. "One is September. When he went out in the eighth, the first two pitches he threw were ... I'm like, yeah, I don't know. And then the other thing is, we didn't score in the eighth but he sat there for a long time. If he comes out and he's at 95 there, then we're having a different conversation, but he was 91-92 and then going down and talking to him, I was like, all right, let's get Dave in the game."

David Bednar went 1-2-3 for his 35th save, marking all the support Keller'd need on top of solo home runs by Suwinski and Alfonso Rivas:

I know, I know, it doesn't matter.

None of this, right?

Well, it might not. Certainly from the team perspective.

Although the Pirates just took three of four from this bad Washington team, although they're a reasonably respectable 28-24 over their past 52 games and 11-5 over their past 16, and although their 69-78 overall record puts them a win shy of their best record since the last team they finished over .500 in 2018 ... the stated claim of Ben Cherington and the front office is that 2024 will -- at long freaking last -- bring a real effort at contention. And if so, there won't be many variables more influential in such a bid than whether or not their best pitcher can pitch ...

"Into September. And beyond," Keller would respond when I broached this. "Oh, it matters. I know."

I pressed on that goal I'd already known to be underlying.

“It just shows growth," he'd say initially. "People are saying the season is winding down. I take pride in the last few starts because it can make or break your season. Just staying strong through the last couple ones."

And for future ones?

"Exactly. You can’t take it off because, hopefully, next year we’ll be in a position where I have five more starts instead of three or however many are left. That’s the huge thing there is kind of growing and knowing for future plans here, and for my own development, you’re going to have to get comfortable throwing this deep into the season.”

That's both recognized and appreciated within the Pirates' world, as Jack Suwinski would bring up on his own in saying, "Mitch is our guy. He means everything to us." But now imagine that meaning within the context of currently having only one regular starter in the rotation -- it's Johan Oviedo and a bunch of TBDs anymore -- coupled with the immense likelihood that other returning pitchers will be battling back from injuries and the even more immense likelihood that the franchise won't exactly break the bank to address that need or any other.

No one's about to seek my advice, but here's a handful of wholly disposable bullets:

• Sign Keller, meaning long-term
• Stuff Oviedo into a bubble
• Force Quinn Priester to throw fastballs
• Get Roansy Contreras outside help
• Hire Luis Ortiz a motivational screamer

I'd throw in free agency, but I'm not new here.

Beyond that, the burden will continue to fall on Keller. Which, at least, is so much more than a plausible scenario than it's ever been, to the inestimable credit of this tough, terrific young man.

THE ESSENTIALS

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THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE INJURIES

• 10-day injured list: RF Henry Davis (thumb)

• 60-day injured list: SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow), INF Tucupita Marcano (knee), LHP Angel Perdomo (elbow), RHP Vince Velasquez (elbow)

THE LINEUPS

Shelton's card:

1. Ji Hwan Bae, 2B
2. Bryan Reynolds, DH
3. Connor Joe, RF
4. Jack Suwinski, CF
5. Josh Palacios, LF
6. Liover Peguero, SS
7. Alfonso Rivas, 1B
8. Jared Triolo, 3B
9. Jason Delay, C

And for Dave Martinez's Nationals:

1. CJ Abrams, SS
2. Lane Thomas, RF
3. Keibert Ruiz, C
4. Joey Meneses, DH
5. Dominic Smith, 1B
6. Luis García, 2B
7. Travis Blankenhorn, LF
8. Jake Alu, 3B
9. Jacob Young, CF

THE SCHEDULE

Oviedo (8-14, 4.34) will face some dude named Gerrit Cole (13-4, 2.79) and the Yankees, 6:35 p.m., at PNC Park. Alex Stumpf will cover.

THE MULTIMEDIA

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