COLUMBUS, Ohio -- We've all talked about this game, well, for a couple of years now.
We've talked about what could be at stake here, if everything played out the right way.
We've talked about what this opportunity means for Penn State.
Now, it's just about time to stop with all the talk.
Who's ready to finally get this thing started?
The No. 7 Nittany Lions had better be ready -- right from the start this time -- because that very well could determine the outcome of Saturday's massive showdown at No. 3 Ohio State.
Let's get into 10 key things to watch.
1. Penn State cannot afford a ho-hum first half playing this style
Remember back in 2016, when it seemed like Penn State got off to a slow start, made great halftime adjustments and then throttled teams in the second half?
Yeah, this year's team has done that, too. But that's not likely to be the case against the Buckeyes on the road, not when Penn State lacks the explosive play ability.
That 2016 team could score from anywhere on the field, whether it was Saquon Barkley taking off for a long touchdown run or Trace McSorley connecting on a deep pass. So no deficit was ever really much of a problem.
But this year's team relies on long, methodical drives. That kind of offense is fine and dandy when you're leading, but it's not built to come from behind against a quality team with an excellent defense.
If the Lions are going to win this game, they need a strong first half and cannot fall behind by very much early.
James Franklin had a good answer when I asked him Tuesday about the need to be sharper early in games.
"I think sometimes when you have a young team, you've got to be able to make adjustments in between series," he said. "It sometimes takes getting in the locker room and settling them down and saying, this is what's going on. We got to find ways to do it faster, and we got to be able to start out fast in practices and games and play at a high level."
2. Let the coordinators do their jobs
This is the Franklin part of the equation in a big game.
Let me ask you a question: For all of you out there who are pretty confident Penn State will win this game, how confident are you that Franklin won't blow it?
Therein lies the issue. The Lions are good enough to win, they've got coordinators and good assistant coaches, and they really just kind of need Franklin to get out of the way during the game.
Case in point ...
3. Mike Yurcich needs to have some more freedom in this game
Franklin has told us a couple of times that he's had to remind the offensive coordinator not to get bored with the play calling. Stick with what works, which has been the grind-it-out style.
That is exactly the sort of meddling that could lose this game.
Let Yurcich do his thing, which is designing and implementing complex schemes and plays that can catch Ohio State's excellent defense off guard. This doesn't necessarily mean throwing it deep a lot, but that is part of it.
Use the running backs more in the passing game. Throw to the tight ends a lot. Try some jet sweeps -- not a billion of them like John Donovan, but some. Send Trey Wallace on some post patterns and take some shots.
Whatever Yurcich feels like he's got to do, Franklin needs to let him do it. I have a very bad feeling on this particular point, because I can totally see Franklin trying to keep things overly simple and tightening the reigns too much on offense.
4. Checkmate
This was some good stuff from Franklin about quarterbacks:
"You spend your whole career trying to get quarterbacks to take checkdowns. Like, every quarterback wants to throw the corner route or the go route or the post. I mean, who is throwing checkdowns in their backyard, right?"
His point is that Drew Allar is so poised and understands what's being asked of him so well that he already gets taking the checkdown throws can work very well because it protects the ball and keeps moving the chains.
If that's what the defense is giving you, then take it. Sure.
The problem here is that Allar seems hesitant to throw the ball deep, even when it's been there. Either that, or he's just simply not seeing that he's had opportunities to do so at times when his receiver had a step on his man and been open down the field.
Whatever the case, the checkdown approach can work, as long as your defense is playing great and you're either tied or you have the lead. All of which is why my No. 1 point above is so important -- that Penn State's offense isn't built to come from behind against a good defense by always taking the short stuff underneath.
5. Is Allar ready for this?
Allar was asked a whole bunch of questions earlier this week about being from Ohio, growing up a Buckeye fan and how any of that might impact him in this game.
"I grew up going to Ohio State Games, like a lot of us did in Ohio," he said. "They got a great fan base, a great atmosphere, very challenging atmosphere. They're a very passionate fan base. But I think it's nothing we're not prepared for; we practice in very loud environments all the time. ... At the end of the day, it's just going out and executing our jobs and just being sound in our assignments."
Sure, except for they all have to do that on the road in front of 100,000 hostile fans, a challenge Allar has never faced in his life. This isn't Northwestern, where the fan turnout was embarrassing. This isn't Illinois, where Allar struggled (16 of 33 for 208 yards).
Ohio State is going to show Allar things on defense that he's never seen, and will come at him with the kind of fast and physical players he's never encountered. Absolutely nothing will be easy for him in this game, up to and including his receivers getting separation, which has been a problem this season.
Allar is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly and throw into tight windows. Yeah, he's had guys open underneath against other defenses, but Ohio State is probably going to be able to take away a lot of that stuff, while also keeping the wideouts from getting open down the field.
What will Allar do on third and long against a tremendous defense? We just don't know, because he's never been in this situation before. He has done a phenomenal job protecting the football, but most of the times he's thrown this season, everybody in the stadium knew the opponent really didn't have much chance to beat Penn State.
This game will bring about 1,000 times more pressure.
"I think the key thing, at the end of the day, is just taking what the defense gives you and don't take unnecessary risks with the football, especially depending on the situations in the game," Allar said. "There's situations where you have to force things maybe that you wouldn't if you're up or if it was the middle of the game. But I think it's just taking calculated risks with the football and just being patient."
He's had the luxury of being patient in blowout games all season, but this figures to be a whole other story.
6. The other QB
Ohio State's Kyle McCord has faced a tougher schedule and has been better than Allar so far. A comparison:
• Allar: 6 games, 1,254 yards, 67.6 percent completion, 12 TDs, 0 INTs, 74.7 QBR (No. 27 in country)
• McCord: 6 games, 1,651 yards, 64.1 percent completion, 11 TDs, 1 INT, 87.2 QBR (No. 6 in country)
McCord has thrown for at least 239 yards in every game, while topping 300 yards twice.
Allar threw for 325 yards in the opener but hasn't topped 204 since, and has been under 200 yards in the past three games.
Amazingly, Allar has attempted more passes than McCord (181 to 170) and yet McCord has nearly 400 more yards passing, again because Penn State relies on so many short throws.
McCord has way, way, better weapons at wide receiver than Allar, with a pair of potential first-round picks in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Look for the Buckeyes to take their share of shots down the field and give their playmakers opportunities to make plays.
However, McCord hasn't faced the kind of pressure he's going to see from Penn State's defense, which has been terrific rushing the passer. Manny Diaz is going to do everything he can to make things very uncomfortable for McCord, who will be throwing against the best secondary he's faced.
One intriguing thing about this QB matchup is that Allar grew up in Ohio and is now playing for Penn State, while McCord grew up in Pennsylvania and is playing for Ohio State.
McCord was high school teammates with Harrison at St. Joseph's Prep in Philly and won three state titles together. McCord also was recruited by Penn State and was offered a scholarship, but ultimately chose the Buckeyes.
“Knowing the type of opponent you’re playing, you circle this one on the calendar for sure,” McCord said this week. “And playing with all these guys in high school, playing against them makes it even more special.”
7. Burying the lede
Look, I'm picking Penn State to win the game because of my faith in Diaz and the defense. There are lots of reasons to pick the Buckeyes -- most notably because they're at home and because of Allar's inexperience in this kind of situation -- but if the Lions' No. 1-ranked defense is really as good as it's shown so far against lesser competition, then that can make up for a whole lot of things.
"We have a bunch of different things that coach Manny does, and it’s fun," defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton said recently. "It’s a fun defense to play in. He’s coming up with different things on defense to use all of our specialties."
8. The injury situation
The Buckeyes are dealing with a bunch of key injuries, including to Egbuka and running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams.
We won't know until shortly before kickoff if those three and others will be able to play. Egbuka is a huge one because if he and Harrison are both available, that puts a whole lot of pressure on Penn State's secondary.
You gotta believe if those guys are anywhere close to even 80-90 percent that they'll try to give it a go.
“Our guy’s working hard to get back to the game, and we’re hopeful that’s going to happen,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said of Egbuka earlier this week. “But we have a lot of weapons, and that’s one of the things that we talked about in the preseason is how we’re going to spread the ball around. Whether it’s a tight end, running back, or receiver, we’re gonna need all these guys to step up. They’re gonna have opportunities. But that’s where depth comes in, and that’s why we have to have weapons across the field.”
9. The kickers
Alex Felkins if 5 of 7 on field goals with a long of 46.
Ohio State's Jayden Fielding is 7 of 7 with a long of 41. He's in his first year as the starting place-kicker.
Been saying it all along: This game very well could come down to a made or missed field goal.
10. Battle tested
Penn State comes into this game with a ton of confidence. And rightfully so, after starting 6-0 and blowing out everybody.
This is an excellent Penn State team with a whole lot of talent.
But let's be honest, we have no idea how good Penn State really is or is not. The schedule up til now just has not provided a good test. Sure, Iowa has a good defense, but the Hawkeyes' offense is an embarrassment to football, and that was a tremendous matchup for the Lions and their strong defense.
Ohio State has already gone into Notre Dame and won. That alone is far greater than anything Penn State has accomplished. The Buckeyes trailed late before scoring on the final play of the game for a 17-14 win.
Ohio State then hosted Maryland and fell behind early, 10-0. The Terps led 17-10 early in the third quarter. Then Ohio State became Ohio State and destroyed Maryland the rest of the way for a 37-17 win.
Again, all of this is yet another reason to pick Ohio State to win here.
OK, so why am I picking Penn State, 19-16?
A whole lot of it is the defense. I think it's that good, even if the opponents so far haven't been great.
But the bottom line for me is that really it's just time. The Lions have been involved in a lot of close games against the Buckeyes over the years, and always seem to find a way to lose. But Penn State has closed the talent gap this year and, dare I say, has a more talented team all around than Ohio State.
So, if the Lions can't win this game with this team, there's really no reason to think they can ever beat the Buckeyes.
