Looking at the Pirates' roster and projected 2024 opening day lineup, first base is one of the most glaring areas of need on offense.
While the Pirates finished 14th in baseball in terms of OPS from first basemen (.775), they don't have many internal options at the moment. Alfonso Rivas was claimed off waivers by the Guardians Thursday, and per sources, Miguel Andújar is also on waivers and can declare free agency if he clears. That leaves them with Connor Joe (who had -2 defensive runs saved at the position), Jared Triolo and prospects Malcom Nunez and Matt Gorski. Neither prospect played particularly well last year and it's far from guaranteed that they'll be added to the roster this winter. Joe had significant platoon splits, and while there may be a temptation to slot Triolo into the lineup, doing so would also take away the Pirates' best depth player.
So if the Pirates want to upgrade their lineup, first base is a perfect place to look.
Like I did last week with starting pitching targets, I identified four first basemen that have a realistic acquisition cost for the Pirates and would help the team. Since players are not allowed to sign with other clubs yet, these are suggestions rather than sourced targets.
FREE AGENT TARGETS
1B CARLOS SANTANA
I'm going to preface this by saying this pick is more for team leadership and looking towards the future at first base rather than solely trying to improve the 2024 team.
Santana did put up a very healthy 2.7 WAR in 2023, according to Baseball Reference, but a lot of that was through his defense rather than his very average .747 OPS and 103 OPS+. The Pirates made a bet last winter that the new shift rules would create some more hits for him, and while his batting average on balls in play did jump from .209 to .255, he was still pretty much an average hitter. It's unrealistic to hope for really much more than that with the bat as he prepares to enter his age 38 season. In fact, giving most aging curves, another 100-ish OPS+ season might be closer to the best-case scenario.
With that said, Santana was a clubhouse leader for four months and has stated his desire to return to the Pirates and work out with Oneil Cruz this winter. He bought into what the Pirates are building, and having veterans that believe in the team -- like him and Andrew McCutchen -- is important. Santana makes sense if the Pirates feel their first baseman of the future is already in the organization, whether it's Triolo or prospects like Gorski or Nunez. If the goal is to shore up the position for a bit and hand the reins over to a kid either late in the year or in 2025, then a one-year reunion makes sense. If the Pirates don't feel like they have a real answer for first in 2025, they may need to shoot higher.
1B/3B JEIMER CANDELARIO
Ok, Santana is a safe, higher-floor, lower-ceiling type player. Let's shoot a little higher for the next free agent target.
While adding someone like Rhys Hoskins to a pillow contract could be mutually beneficial, I can't see it happening if he is extended a qualifying offer from the Phillies. Even if he's looking for a shorter-term deal (which is just an assumption on my part), he would be turning down over $20 million on a one-year pact with a team he knows. I can't see the Pirates dropping the $35-40 million it would presumably take to sign him after he missed the entire 2023 campaign.
So let's look elsewhere. Candelario has been very good in three of the past four seasons, with a dreadful 2022 campaign sandwiched inbetween that got him released by the Tigers. Like, dreadful enough that they saw his 3.7 WAR in 2021 and still cut bait with him. He enjoyed a nice comeback season in 2023, posting over 3 WAR again, but that risk of a recent clunker should keep his price down, both in terms of years and dollars. If he's available in the two-year, $20 million range, then he's a good guy to get.
Candelario doesn't wow with his exit velocities, but he does a really good job elevating the ball. He hit more fly balls than ground balls last season, and the switch-hitter posted nearly identical results from both sides of the plate, resulting in 22 home runs and an .807 OPS. He trended in the right direction in terms of whiffs and chases last year and saw 4.06 pitches per at-bat last year, which would have ranked second on the Pirates who qualifieid for the batting title last year behind Jack Suwinski.
Candelario gives good at-bats and tends to get good results. He wasn't able to match his 2021 peripherals, but he still has that in him. He comes with some volatility risk, but the worst case scenario is getting a guy who could help out on a platoon and provide good corner infield defense.
TRADE TARGETS
UTL BRANDON DRURY
The Angels appear destined for a rebuild this winter, assuming Shoehi Ohtani walks in free agency. They drained their farm system to make a late push last year, and it desperately needs to be replenished. Drury has one year remaining on his contract, making hiim a very logical trade chip.
Drury had to settle for a minor-league contract ahead of 2022 but made the most of that opportunity, going on to win the Silver Slugger for utilitymen. The Angels signed him to a two-year, $17 million deal to try to get over the hump, and while he hit 26 home runs with an .803 OPS (despite missing the month of July), they fell well short. Now it's probably time for them to sell.
The Pirates need more fastball hitters, and Drury certainly is one. Last year, they slashed .272/.357/.428 against non-cut fastballs, and while that looks fine on its own, they ranked in the bottom-third of the league in terms of production against four-seamers and sinkers. Drury slugged .548 against fastballs last year with peripherals to back that up. He is prone to chasing out of the zone and whiffs -- which by extension can lead to strikeouts and not a ton of walks -- but when he connects, it's usually solid contact. The Pirates have plenty of hitters who don't chase and can get on base via a walk, but you need someone like this to drive them home.
Not to mention that Drury is also a solid defender. His five Outs Above Average were mainly due to him playing second base, but he held his own at first base also. With regular reps he could theoretically improve there, or the Pirates could bounce him around the diamond, like Triolo.
Drury has greatly outperformed his peripherals the last two seasons, posting fairly pedestrian expected wOBAs of .316 and .319, but it's worth rolling the dice on one more year. I wouldn't expect him to cost a blue-chipper, but a middle of the road prospect or two should get the job done. The farm system has plenty of depth and they won't be able to use it all in the majors. This is a chance to add a versatile, plus defender who could add pop to the lineup at a reasonable price.
1B/OF SETH BROWN
When looking at first base, you can't forget about Joe. Perhaps he's not the first choice for an every day first baseman, but he had an .820 OPS against southpaws last year. What if the Pirates want to platoon the position?
I'm operating on the assumption that just about everyone on the Athletics is up for grabs as long as they are still in Oakland. In that case, Brown is a bounce-back candidate after an inconsistent 2023 campaign.
Brown is just one year removed from a very solid 2022 campaign where he hit 25 home runs and posted a 117 OPS+ over 150 games played, which included a .793 OPS against right-handers. In 2023, he had a .692 OPS overall (.738 against right-handers) with just 14 home runs over 112 games played. The results were still quite good whenever he made contact, recording a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and 46.5% hard-hit rate, but his chase and whiff rates went up. One of the things the Pirates appreciate most about Andy Haines' coaching is his ability to teach the strike zone. If Brown can cut down on the chases, then he could make better contact and drive the ball more.
It's also worth noting that Brown's expected wOBA in 2023 (.324) was the same as his actual wOBA in 2022. So if you're looking for a bounce-back guy, his batted ball peripheral is not that different than it was the season prior.
Brown is entering his first year of arbitration at age 31, and MLB Trade Rumors projects he'll make $2.4 million. He would cost a decent prospect or two, but it's a cheap way to add a potential 20+ home run bat to the lineup.
