I couldn't vote against history.
Entering September, I geniuenly did not know who would top my ballot for the National League's Most Valuable Player. On one hand, Ronald Acuña Jr. was having a season of speed and power we had never seen before, becoming the first player to ever have 40 home runs and 70 steals in the same season.
On the other, Mookie Betts was having one of the most valubale seasons we have seen from an NL player in years, not only leading the league in WAR, according to Baseball Savant, but sliding over to second base and shortstop when the Dodgers needed him the most. He hadn't played the middle infield consistently since the minor leagues, but wound up playing 583 innings there. What's perhaps more impressive is excelled there, too, being worth six defensive runs saved.
I don't believe the MVP has to be a contender, but the Braves and Dogers were both on their way to triple-digit wins with these two leading the charge. They finished with nearly identical WAR figures (8.3 for Betts, 8.2 for Acuña), so it came down to what was more important: Value to a team or history.
I chose history. Acuña homering 11 times that final month certainly helped the decision making process, but ultimately, I decided that if we were to discuss this season years from now, what would I bring up first? Acuña doing something that had never been done before, or Betts excelling? It was an MVP worthy season, but I don't think it even tops his 2018.
The Baseball Writers Association of America agreed, naming Acuña the MVP to conclude their year-end awards Thursday. It was a unanimous decision, and while I was part of that voting majority, the difference between Acuña and Betts was much closer than that vote shows. Betts wins an MVP nine times out of 10 for the season he just had. Acuña's season was that 10th outcome.
Below is my complete ballot of 10 players, with some thoughts on each:
1. Ronald Acuña Jr., Outfielder, Braves
It was a historic season, but I can't help but wonder if Acuña will somehow top it since he should just now be entering his prime.
2. Mookie Betts, Outfielder, Dodgers
I think if you tried to create the perfect baseball player in the lab, it would be Mookie Betts (non-Shohei Ohtani division, of course). He just missed out on joining Frank Robinson as the only players to win an MVP in both the American and National League.
3. Matt Olson, First Baseman, Braves
Olson hit 54 home runs, drove in 139, played in every single game, finished with 7.4 WAR, had eight defensive runs saved for good measure, and didn't get any serious consideration for MVP over Acuña and Betts. What a great year for National League baseball.
Out of curiousity, I put Olson's 54 homers and 7.4WAR into Stathead to see how many National League players accomplished that in a season, and he is just one of eight, and just one of four if you omit the height of the steroid era (1998-2001). He was the second-best player on the best team in the National League.
4. Freddie Freeman, First Baseman, Dodgers
Freeman hit 59 doubles in 2023, one shy of the first 60-double season since Charlie Gehringer in 1936. That has almost nothing to do with Freeman's excellent season. Just something I got bummed about as a fan of big round number seasons.
Freeman hit 29 homers, was worth 6.5 WAR and was 23-of-24 on stolen base attempts, just for good measure. He was an all-around great player for a Dodgers team that really leaned on him and Betts to carry. Don't look now, but his 55.7 career WAR is already in the top 20 of first basemen all-time. I think there's a legitimate chance he could finish in the top 10 of his position by the time he hangs it up.
5. Corbin Carroll, Outfielder, Diamondbacks
I'm glad Carroll arrived now rather than a couple years ago. The pitch clock and pickoff rules encouraged teams to become more aggressive on the bases, and Carroll took advantage of that, swiping 54 bags with just five caught stealings. Since caught stealings started being officially tracked in 1951, only five other players have had 50+ steals and five or fewer caught stealings.
It may be stat gerrymandering, but Carroll was the first player in American or National League history with 25+ homers, 30+ doubles, 10+ triples and 50 steals in a single season. He was the Rookie of the Year and the best player of the pennant winner. (Not to mention, he was worth more baserunning runs than Acuña, according to FanGraphs' BsR.) I believe he will win an MVP down the road.
6. Austin Riley, Third Baseman, Braves
How often is someone with 37 home runs and 97 RBIs the unquestioned third best hitter on a team? We are in a golden age of third basemen across baseball right now, and there's a legitimate case to be made that Riley has been the best of them over these past three seasons.
7. Francisco Lindor, Shortstop, Mets
I feel like if the Mets wouldn't have collapsed so spectacularly this season, Lindor would have been a contender for this award. He became just one of six shortstops ever to have a 30-30 season, played solid defense in the field and finished with 6 WAR. It was a season where he again proved that he is a true five-tool player.
This was one of the finest seasons for a player who has a shot at the Hall of Fame down the road, and he only finished seventh on my ballot. We were spoiled by some great baseball this season.
8. Luis Arráez, Second Baseman, Marlins
Arráez was hitting .396 at the midpoint of the season and it looked like he would have a legitimate shot at the game's first .400 season since the Splendid Splinter. Sadly, he tapered off from there and finished with just a .354 batting average. Oh well.
While he wasn't able to create history (well, besides the highest batting average in Marlins history), Arráez was the best player on a Marlins team that made the leap to the playoffs and was worth more than twice as much WAR as the next hitter on his team. This is supposed to be the most valuable player award, right?
9. Juan Soto, Outfielder, Padres
I will admit, I was surprised by how little I heard about Soto over the course of the season. Perhaps that was because he got off to a slow start in April, and by the time he heated up, the Padres' implosion was well underway.
But you know what, he finished with a season that was pretty much exactly in line with his career averages. The career averages that are putting him on the path to perhaps the largest contract in baseball history next year. When we look back at Soto's career 20 years from now, the most memorable part of this season is going to be the Padres' collapse, not him posting 5.5 WAR, 35 home runs and a 158 OPS+. It'll just be another year on the back ofhis baseball card, which is a shame. A pedestrian by his standards season is still one of the best in the sport.
10. Ha-Seong Kim, Infielder, Padres
Kim played at least 20 games at second, third and shortstop, provided solid offensive production and stole 38 bases. I thought about Fernando Tatis Jr. instead for this spot, but in the end, I went with Kim because defensive versatility was more valuable.
