ALTOONA, Pa. -- Penn State vs. Ole Miss is an excellent bowl matchup, in pretty much every possible way.
That's the good news.
The bad news? Well, the excitement about the Peach Bowl matchup and bowl hullabaloo in general is only going to be minimized between now and Dec. 30, and we're not going to actually get to see all of what could make it a great game.
Why? Opt outs.
We're not going to see Penn State at full strength in this game, not by a long shot, as there undoubtedly will be a number of key players opting out.
More on that in a bit,
First, the good stuff.
"Should be a great experience for our players, should be a great experience for our fans," James Franklin said Sunday about the Peach Bowl. "Obviously the matchup between the Big Ten and the SEC, two of the most respected conferences in all of college football."
Let's dive into a whole bunch of good news and bad news.
Good news: Penn State is another New Year's Six bowl, and Franklin has a chance to win one for the fourth time. The Nittany Lions won the Fiesta in 2017 (vs. Washington), the Cotton in 2019 (vs. Memphis) and the Rose in 2022 (vs. Utah).
"We have a chance to be, I think, the only program in college football to win every New Year's Six bowl game," Franklin said. "So, that's something that's exciting. And then obviously, our first time in the Peach Bowl, in terms of Penn State, so excited about all those things."
Good news: This is also the sixth time in eight years that Penn State has finished in the top 12 of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Bad news: The Lions still have earned zero playoff berths, because they've never been quite good enough to finish in the top four.
"We have aspirations and expectations to do better," Franklin said when I asked him what making the top 12 so many times means to the program.
"But there's also only a very, very small handful of teams in the country that have done what we've done."
Good news: The playoff field is finally expanding to 12 next season.
Bad news: It's a shame the field didn't expand this year, not just for Penn State's sake, but because there are a whole bunch of other teams that could potentially do damage if they got in. Heck, if Georgia were in, it could very well end up winning the whole thing for the third straight year. And if Ohio State had gotten in, it perhaps could have made things very interesting.
"You can make the argument for any number of teams (being in the field)," Franklin said. "The reality is, when we go to 12 teams, there's going to be arguments for 13, 14, 15, no different than basketball deals with (on bubble teams).
"But I do feel like there was a solution before the season started that would have helped with this a lot."
He was talking about a vote among officials in the sport that could have expanded the field to 12 this year, but that didn't pass.
"There's always going to be some tough decisions that are going to have to be made, and there's always going to be some hurt feelings," Franklin added. "I've been through it myself. We won the Big Ten championship (in 2016), and another team from the Big Ten went to the playoffs. These are tough decisions."
Good news: Both teams in the Peach Bowl are 10-2 and did a lot of good things this season.
Bad news: Both of these teams also lost their two biggest games, which left a sour taste in everyone's mouth about the overall success. Penn State lost to Ohio State and Michigan, while Ole Miss lost to Alabama and Georgia. The Rebels' best win was over LSU, which finished 13th in the playoff rankings. Penn State's best win was over Iowa, which is 17th.
Good news: This is a fantastic bowl matchup on paper, pitting a great offense in Ole Miss against a great defense from Penn State.
Bad news: The actual bowl games themselves really don't matter much anymore, because ...
Bad news: OK, here's where we get into the meat of the discussion. The opt outs.
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said a couple of times when asked that he doesn't think his team will have to deal with opt outs.
"I have not heard of any," he said. "I would expect that we don't have any. We're kind of not in one of those years where we really have some first-rounders that are coming out that are concerned of injuries and so forth. So, I would not anticipate that happening with us."
Penn State, on the other hand, almost certainly will be dealing with a number of opt outs. Simply because playing in a bowl game is relatively meaningless and presents far too much risk than reward if you're a player who's soon to be heading to the NFL.
Franklin said he'll be talking to players in the coming weeks about their situations, and will rely on the personal relationships he's built with them over the years when discussing what's best for their futures.
"The challenge in college football when we change the rules and allow agents to be talking to these players their entire college career, that's the challenge, right?" Franklin said. "They're getting information -- and it's not always accurate information -- from every direction.
"We just try to create an open communication line, try to give guys as much valuable information as possible. Really from that point on, at the end of the day, we want our guys to make great, educated decisions, based on all the information that's out there."
Just how many Penn State players could opt out of this game? It could be a big number, such as half a dozen or more.
There's no reason whatsoever for left tackle Olu Fashanu to play in this game. Or defensive end Chop Robinson. Both are projected first-round picks.
Cornerback Kalen King has a huge decision to make. He has been considered a potential first-rounder, but by a lot of metrics, King did not have a great season. He could definitely benefit from another year in college. But if he's still got people telling him he could go in the first round or even possibly the second, then he likely would turn pro. And in that case, one would expect him to opt out of the bowl game.
Others who could consider opting out: LB Curtis Jacobs, DE Adisa Isaac, CB Johnny Dixon, TE Theo Johnson. Even guys who aren't projected to get drafted, such as RT Caedan Wallace and C Hunter Nourzad, could have decisions to make.
The bottom line, though, is that Penn State will be a very different team even if it's only Fashanu and Robinson opting out and no others. Those are huge difference makers on both sides of the ball, and playing without them undoubtedly means that the Lions will be short-handed.
SWITCHING GEARS
Getting away from the bowl game ...
Good news: Manny Diaz is still Penn State's defensive coordinator. For now.
He's reportedly been involved in talks about the Duke job, but that school hasn't settled on anyone yet. With each passing day and with more jobs getting filled, the possibility of Diaz staying at Penn State becomes greater.
Man, would that be a HUGE piece of good news for the Lions. Make no mistake, keeping Diaz is priority No. 1 this offseason.
Bad news: Gotta feel like this season was a bit of a wasted opportunity for Penn State, which has a national championship caliber defense but couldn't figure out the offense.
Good news: About the offense, the Andy Kotelnicki hire looks really good in a lot of ways. He's experienced and creative and has enjoyed a lot of success. Kotelnicki will be involved with the program over the next month to get acclimated as much as possible.
"I think Andy, like he did at Kansas, is really going to approach this like the head coach of the offense," Franklin said. "He's had experience really coaching almost every position on offense and coordinating from every position on offense, which I think is also going to allow him to float almost like an NFL coordinator in some way."
Good news: Franklin really likes grad assistant Danny O'Brien, and he could be in position to become the quarterbacks coach. Kotelnicki did not coach the QBs at Kansas. Franklin said it hasn't "totally been decided" yet how they'll handle the quarterback situation. If they can keep O'Brien around in an important role, that would be best for the program, given his rising-star status and his relationship with Drew Allar.
Good news, bad news: I cannot encourage you enough to go listen to this week's We Are podcast. In the second segment, I chat with Kansas football reporter Henry Greenstein from the Lawrence Journal-World, and he offered up some tremendous insight about Kotelnicki and his offense.
The good news, according to the reporter, is that Kotelnicki can adapt to his personnel. That's vital.
Because the bad news is that, from what the reporter mentioned, Kotelnicki's offense at Kansas was compared to the triple option and the wishbone, given how they used the QB and set up plays.
Ummm, Allar isn't going to be running any triple option or wishbone. That's just not gonna work with a 6-foot-5, 242-pound pocket passer who's not real fast or elusive.
For the record, I really like the OC hire. But one cannot help but wonder if Allar is the kind of quarterback best suited for what Kotelnicki wants to do. If the OC really is good at his job, he'll find a way to succeed with someone like Allar who has a lot of skills and a year of starting experience under his belt.
But ...
Just like how Penn State got better when Christian Hackenberg left and Trace McSorley took over in 2016 under Joe Moorhead, it's possible that Kotelnicki won't hit his stride as the offensive coordinator until he's able to get a more mobile quarterback.
LASTLY
Good news: The transfer portal window opens today. I'm filing this under good news because we've already heard from Allar and Nicholas Singleton that they are remaining committed to Penn State.
The Lions will lose a few players, but I doubt any standouts will be heading elsewhere. Meanwhile, look for the program to land a couple of quality players in the coming weeks.
The biggest need? Duh! Wide receiver.
